大話占星術:年五大數字趨勢

I am starting to think marketers and astrologers have more in common than meets the eye. We are both asked to stargaze and look into the future on a regular basis. Every year around this time, I see similar emails from clients and reporters alike, all wanting to know what 2014 holds in store. Luckily, I don’t need the stars to predict what comes next because technology always leaves telltale signs. Here are the Top 5 Digital Trends you can look forward to for 2014.

我開始思考這樣一個問題：營銷人員和占星家之間的共同點比表面上看起來的要多。這兩種人都會要求我們經常性地凝望星空、望向未來。每年的這個時候，我都會收到客戶和記者發來的類似郵件，他們都想知道2014年會發生些什麼。幸運的是，我並不需要夜觀星象來預測接下來會發生的事，因爲科技總是會留下一些明顯的跡象。以下便是2014年你將可能發現的五大數字趨勢。

1) An Identity Based Eco-System. As a graduate student at the University of Texas at Austin, I did my thesis on Twitter. (No, it wasn’t in 140 characters.) One of the pivotal questions of my thesis was this: Why do people use social networking sites at all? My incorrect hypothesis was that people wanted to connect to each other. My research revealed that this was only the secondary reason. The primary reason was to showcase their own identity. I’ll pause while you give a moment’s thought to the narcissism of society. Then, I’ll urge you to think deeper. We, as humans, have always had an innate need to express ourselves. By that very expression, we further our identity. Smart companies, such as Facebook (with their timeline feature) and Amazon (with their personalized recommendations) are already taking advantage of what I refer to as an Identity Based Eco-System. The digital world of tomorrow, be it consumer or business, will revolve around the individual identity. The companies who want to take advantageof this trend will proactively create ways to harness the idea that showcasing our identity is the most human and primary of desires.

1）基於身份的生態系統。在我還是得克薩斯大學奧斯汀分校研究生的時候，我的論文主題是Twitter（不，這篇論文並非只有140個字）。我論文中討論的一個重要問題是：爲什麼人們會使用社交網站？我不甚正確的假設是，人們想要彼此進行聯繫。但我所做的調研發現，這僅僅是第二重要的原因。第一重要的原因是展示自己的身份。我會在這裏頓一頓，給你點時間思考下這個社會的自戀情結。然後，我會敦促你更深入地思考。作爲人類的我們總有一種天生的表達自己的需求。通過這種表達，我們進一步深化了自己的身份。聰明的公司，如Facebook（以及他們的時間軸功能）和亞馬遜（以及他們的個性化推薦功能）已經在着手利用我所說的這種“基於身份的生態系統”。明天的數字世界，無論是消費者的還是企業的，都將圍繞着個人身份展開活動。想要利用這一趨勢的公司將會積極主動地創造各種方法，來利用這一觀點：展示我們的身份是最最普遍也是最最基礎的慾望。

2) Content Curation and Aggregation. Remember the movie You’ve Got Mail, with Meg Ryan and Tom Hanks? It was a blockbuster hit and romantic comedy at its best. But, they can never create a remake of that movie. Why? Because no one is that excited to receive email anymore! We have gone from an information hungry to an information overloaded society. However, we still require information on a daily basis – now more than ever. Hence, we see the rise of websites such as Pinterest, Quora, and . Pinterest is technically nothing more than an organization system for images which already exist, but because we desperately need that system for aggregation, it is a success.

2） 內容管理和聚合。還記得梅格?瑞恩（Meg Ryan）和湯姆?漢克斯（Tom Hanks）主演的電影《電郵情緣》（You’ve Got Mail）嗎？這是一部票房大片，也是浪漫喜劇的巔峯之作。然而，現在再也不可能重拍該片了。爲什麼？因爲沒人會爲收到郵件而激動不已了！我們早已經從信息飢渴社會過渡到了信息過量社會。然而，我們仍然每天都需要信息——比以往任何時候都要多。因此，我們看到了諸如Pinterest、Quora和等網站的興起。Pinterest從技術上來說不過是將早已存在的圖像組織起來而已，但是由於我們非常需要這種聚合系統，它獲得了巨大成功。

3) Video = Device Agnostic. When was the last time you uttered the phrase “I am watching video on television.” Chances are you may watch a video on TV, but you may just as easily be watching it on your tablet or smart phone. Video continues to become device agnostic. (Much to my chagrin, my husband takes advantage of this fact by pausing the episode on TV only to continue it on his tablet at the restaurant. I’ll save the net etiquette for spouses article for later.) From a business standpoint, online video will continue to play a bigger role in the digital space.

3） 視頻=設備不可知。你上一次說“我在電視上看視頻”是什麼時候？更可能的是，你會在電視上看視頻，但你也可以很方便地在平板電腦或智能手機上看視屏。視頻持續着其設備不可知的特性。（令我懊惱的是，我丈夫利用了這一事實，他會給電視上播放的劇集按下暫停鍵，爲的是稍後在餐廳用平板電腦接着看。有關夫婦間網絡禮儀的事宜，我稍後另外撰文詳述吧。）從商業角度來說，在線視頻將繼續在數字世界中扮演更爲重要的角色。

4) The 4 Screen Revolution. The last Super Bowl showcased this trend better than any other event. While people watched the game on TV, they were checking their work email on the computer for the next day, tweeting about the game on their tablet, and texting their friends at the same time. The number of screens we are used to will only increase with time. When I say screen, I don’t necessarily mean a solid box. Google glass would also qualify as a screen. Any surface (tangible or not) which you interact with can be considered a screen. Look for advertising to innovate as the available surfaces, on which to interact, increase.

4）四屏革命。最近一次的超級碗比其他任何活動都要更好地表明瞭這一趨勢。當人們在電視上觀看比賽時，他們同時還在電腦上查看第二天的工作郵件、用平板電腦發與比賽相關的推文，同時還在給朋友發短信。我們所能習慣的屏幕數量只會隨着時間的推移而增加。我所說的“屏幕”並不一定就是指實實在在的方盒子。谷歌眼鏡也能算是一塊屏幕。你能與之進行互動的任何表面（有形的或是無形的）都可以視作是屏幕。隨着各種可進行互動的表面種類的增加，期待廣告界推出各種創新吧！

5) Social Literacy Skills Required. Social media literacy will be required by companies for most jobs, but especially for the C-Suite. It expands beyond understanding social platforms to making the digital landscape an inherent part of your professional repertoire. As a skill set, social media literacy will be divided into two areas – personal and organizational. On the personal level, professionals will have to know how to create content, curate relevant information, and connect people and resources. On an organizational level, agility (in thought and strategy), the ability to aggregate multiple points of data for decision making, and authenticity (the real deal, not the perception) will be required.

5）社交網絡能力是必備。公司的大部分招聘職位將要求應聘者擁有社交媒體能力，對高管職位來說尤其如此。這一能力不僅僅是要能理解社交平臺，以使數字能力成爲你職業素養中一個固有的部分。社交媒體能力作爲一整套技能，將被劃分成兩個層面——個人及組織。在個人層面上，專業人士必須要知道如何創建內容、管理相關信息，並將人和資源聯繫在一起。在組織層面上，則要求有靈活性（在思維和戰略上）——整合各方數據以用於決策制定的能力——和真實性（實實在在的交易，而不是想法）。

As I gaze into my digital crystal ball, one thing is certain. 2014 is sure to be an exciting year on the digital front.

當我凝視着我的數字水晶球時，有一件事是肯定的。2014年必將成爲數字前沿令人激動的一年。