艱難的中國減排之路 有沒有行之有效的方法?
When it comes to difficult government jobs, few are as tricky as the one held by Xie Zhenhua, China’s chief negotiator on climate change.
說到政府部門的職位，很少有比中國在氣候變化問題上的首席談判代表解振華的工作更棘手的。On the day he agrees to meet the Financial Times, in a room the size of a basketball court near his office in the country’s economic planning ministry, the air outside is “unhealthy”. At least, that is what it says on the smartphone air quality apps people in Beijing check as obsessively as Londoners watch weather forecasts.
不久前，解振華同意接受英國《金融時報》的採訪，地點安排在他在中國發改委的辦公室附近一間籃球場大小的房間裏。當天戶外的空氣質量爲“不健康”；至少，智能手機上的空氣質量應用是這麼說的。北京市民對此類應用的癡迷程度，不亞於倫敦人對天氣預報的重視。Much of the smog comes from cars but it also drifts in from the coal-powered plants that have helped propel China’s economy into second place after the US – and turned it into a carbon dioxide polluter like no other.
大量霧霾來自汽車尾氣，但燃煤電廠也是來源之一。這些電廠推動中國成爲僅次於美國的第二大經濟體，也將這個國家變成世界頭號二氧化碳排放國。
China’s hunger for coal meant it pumped out almost 10 gigatons of CO2 in 2012, more than the US and the EU combined and nearly a third of the global total. Despite its 1.3bn population, China’s emissions per head are higher than those of France, Italy and Spain and nearly equal to the EU average.
中國對煤炭的巨大需求意味着，它在2012年排放了近100億噸二氧化碳，超過美國和歐盟(EU)的總和，佔全球總排放的近三分之一。儘管擁有13億人口，但中國的人均排放量仍高於法國、意大利和西班牙，幾乎等於歐盟平均水平。This makes Mr Xie’s position difficult. For most of the past decade, the 64-year-old engineer has represented China in the international climate talks launched nearly 20 years ago to curb emissions of CO2 , the main man-made greenhouse gas scientists say is warming the atmosphere to potentially dangerous levels.
這讓解振華的處境很困難。在過去10年的大部分時間裏，這位現年64歲、工程師出身的官員代表中國參加國際氣候談判。這些談判於近20年前啓動，目的是遏制二氧化碳排放。二氧化碳是主要的人爲製造的溫室氣體，科學家稱，它正使大氣層的溫度升至潛在危險的水平。Those talks have failed to stop the fastest rise in emissions on record over the past decade, due in large part to China, which has resisted outside pressure to rein in carbon pollution.
談判未能阻止排放量在過去10年創下有記錄以來最快的增速。這在很大程度上要歸因於中國，中國一直在抵制外界要求其控制碳排放污染的壓力。Mr Xie has been known to bang the odd table in climate talks when confronted with what he felt were unrealistic demands from other countries. But now, he says, the pollution visible each day outside his windows is forcing China to change regardless of what the outside world wants.
在氣候談判中，如果解振華認爲其他國家提出了過分的要求，他有時會拍桌，這讓他出名。但現在他表示，窗外天天可見的污染，正在迫使中國做出改變——無論外國提出什麼樣的要求。“It’s fair to say the smog issue and climate change issue are caused to some extent by the same source,” he says. “The smog has pushed us to make greater decisions to accelerate the transformation of our development and living model, and transform the economic, industrial and energy structure.”
“不誇張地說，霧霾問題和氣候變化問題在一定程度上是相同來源造成的，”他表示，“霧霾促使我們做出更重大的決定，加速轉變發展和生活模式，轉變經濟、工業和能源結構。”In other words, China wants to build on what Mr Xie describes as the “tremendous efforts” already made to replace coal power with cleaner energy sources as its economy matures and becomes less reliant on heavy industry. The question is whether China is willing, or even able, to make such changes in time to prevent global temperatures warming to potentially risky levels.
換言之，隨着中國經濟日漸成熟和降低對重工業的依賴，它希望在解振華所稱的用更清潔能源代替燃煤發電的“巨大努力”基礎上，更上一層樓。問題在於，中國願不願意（或者能不能夠）及時做出改變，阻止全球氣溫升至潛在高風險的水平？Mr Xie bristles at the question. “Sometimes the international community wonders whether China will take real action,” he says. “There should be no question on this issue. China will definitely take action, not only in terms of protecting people’s livelihoods and health but also making a contribution to global climate-change efforts.”
對於這個問題，解振華面露慍色。“國際社會有時候懷疑中國會不會採取切實行動，”他表示，“這件事應該是不存在問題的。中國肯定會採取行動，不僅是爲了保護人民的生命財產和健康，也要爲全球應對氣候變化的努力做出貢獻。”It is true that China is taking astonishing strides to switch from coal to cleaner forms of power. Of the 94 gigawatts of new generating capacity it installed last year, almost 60 per cent was renewable. That included more than 11GW of solar, enough to power a small Chinese city and more than any country has built in a single year.
沒錯，中國正在邁出驚人的大步，從燃煤發電轉向更清潔的發電方式。去年中國新增的9400萬千瓦發電裝機容量中，近60%使用可再生能源。這其中包括超過1100萬千瓦的太陽能，足以爲中國的一座小型城市供電，並且高於其他任何國家一年的新增裝機容量。Solar, wind and hydropower now account for nearly a third of its installed electricity generating capacity, compared with less than 15 per cent in the US. It is also piloting emissions trading systems that could lead to a national carbon market by 2020.
目前，太陽能、風電和水電佔中國發電裝機總量的近三分之一，而美國的這一比例不到15%。中國還在進行排放交易系統的試點，有望到2020年建立全國性的碳市場。But its addiction to coal is far from over. Fossil fuels, mostly coal, still make up nearly 70 per cent of its power generating capacity. Although it plans to boost sharply its nuclear and renewable power, it is also expected to add 248GW of coal capacity between now and 2020, according to IHS, the consultancy – equal to about three new coal plants every month.
但中國對煤炭的依賴還遠未結束。化石燃料（主要是煤炭）仍佔發電能力的近70%。儘管中國計劃大幅增加核電和可再生能源發電的比重，但諮詢機構IHS表示，預計2020年前中國也將新增24800萬千瓦的燃煤發電裝機容量，相當於每月新建約三座燃煤電廠。Other factors underline the immense scale of the challenge China faces as it tries to wean itself off the coal choking its cities. Hydropower dams are by far is main source of renewable energy but cannot be expanded infinitely. Nuclear power is expensive. The country’s shale gas industry is in its infancy. Coal is not just cheap – it is ingrained in an economy that is the world’s workshop.
燃煤讓中國的城市烏煙瘴氣。但在中國試圖擺脫對煤炭的依賴之際，其它一些因素突顯中國面對的巨大挑戰。水電大壩目前是中國遙遙領先的最主要可再生能源，但不可能無止境地建設下去。核電成本高昂。中國的頁岩氣行業仍處於發展初期。煤炭不僅廉價，在身爲世界工廠的中國經濟中，煤炭也根深蒂固、盤根錯節。Interviews with officials and advisers working on energy and climate policies suggest China has something in common with St Augustine, who prayed for chastity but not yet.
對能源和氣候政策領域的官員和顧問的採訪似乎表明，中國與聖奧古斯丁(St Augustine)有共同之處。後者曾祈禱：“賜予我貞潔吧，但不是現在。”Yes, it wants to reduce its emissions, but perhaps not as fast as climate science might dictate.
沒錯，中國希望減少排放，但它或許不想以氣候科學可能要求的速度迅速減排。Despite 30 years of remarkable economic growth, China still has almost 100m people living below the national poverty line of Rmb2,300 a year, or less than $400. The idea that it should cut its emissions as fast as western countries before it achieves a comparable standard of living remains deeply unpopular. “China is not Chad,” says Mr Xie, referring to one of the world’s poorest countries. “But on the other hand, China is not the US, the EU or even Japan.”
雖然30年來中國的經濟增長令人矚目，但中國仍有近1億人生活在每年2300元人民幣（不到400美元）的國家貧困線以下。中國應當在實現與西方可比的生活水平之前像西方那麼快地減排——這種觀點仍極不受歡迎。“中國不是乍得，”解振華提到的乍得是世界最貧窮的國家之一，“但另一方面，中國也不是美國、歐盟或日本。”Those countries’ emissions peaked when per capita GDP was $10,000 to $15,000, and sometimes as much as $30,000, he says, yet the figure in China is still around $6,000.
他表示，這些國家的碳排放在人均GDP達到1萬至1.5萬美元（一些情況下甚至是3萬美元）時達到頂峯，而中國的人均GDP還在6000美元左右。So what does China really want? Part of the answer may come in September when heads of state are expected to spell out how they plan to tackle climate change at the UN.
那麼，中國真正想要的是什麼？今年9月各國首腦在聯合國(UN)闡述各自的氣候變化對策時，我們或許將看出一些眉目。The event has been designed to focus attention on the international climate negotiations, which are due to produce a global deal on tackling carbon emissions late next year in Paris.
按計劃，此次聯合國會議將重點關注國際氣候談判。此輪談判定於在明年後期的巴黎氣候大會上達成應對碳排放的全球協議。China has said it will cut the amount of carbon it produces as a proportion of GDP by at least 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2020. This is a far cry from the absolute cut in emissions offered by the EU, the US and other industrialised economies.
中國表示，到2020年，其碳排放與GDP的比例將至少比2005年水平降低40%。比起歐盟、美國和其他工業化國家提出的排放量絕對值削減，中國的目標相去甚遠。China’s position is understandable, says Prof Detlef van Vuuren of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, who was also an author of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
但政府間氣候變化問題小組(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)最新報告的作者之一、荷蘭環境評估局(PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)的德特勒夫•範維倫(Detlef van Vuuren)表示，中國的立場可以理解。China’s economy is growing much faster than that of European countries, “so for us it is much easier to reduce emissions in an absolute sense”, he says.
他表示，中國經濟增長遠遠快於歐洲國家，“所以對我們來說，削減排放量絕對值要容易得多。”That raises the question of when China’s emissions are likely to peak, either naturally or with policy effort.
這就帶出了一個問題：中國的排放量何時將見頂（自然或是受政策努力的影響）？The Dutch agency recently took part in a sweeping study that tried to answer this question using a range of climate-economy models. Most suggested that without more stringent policies, emissions would keep rising until at least 2050.
荷蘭環境評估局近期參與了一項大範圍的研究，該項研究藉助一系列氣候-經濟模型來嘗試回答這個問題。大多數模型似乎顯示，若沒有更嚴厲的政策，排放增長將至少延續至2050年。They showed the most cost-effective way of stopping global temperatures rising more than 2C from pre-industrial times – a threshold some scientists say should not be breached – is for China’s emissions to peak shortly after 2020. Temperatures have already risen by nearly 1C.
這些模型表明，若要阻止全球氣溫升高到比工業化之前時期高出2攝氏度（一些科學家稱，不應突破這一門檻）的水平，成本效益最好的辦法是讓中國的排放量在2020年後不久見頂。全球氣溫已經比工業化之前升高了近1攝氏度。Action could be delayed beyond 2030 but this would be more costly because it would require deeper emissions cuts later. Could China stop its emissions rising as early as 2020?
行動可以推遲到2030年以後，但代價將更爲高昂，因爲那將要求對排放量進行更大幅度的削減。中國能否在2020年就阻止排放量繼續上升？The influential Beijing think-tanks and institutes that advise ministries such as the National Development and Reform Commission, where Mr Xie is vice-chairman, have been working on an assessment of a likely peaking period.
北京一些具有影響力、爲國家發改委（解振華擔任副主任）等政府部門提供建議的智庫和研究機構一直在評估排放量可能在何時見頂。The findings may be ready in time for the September summit but there is still plenty of disagreement about a realistic peaking date, according to analysts working on the topic.
到9月份聯合國峯會時，研究結果可能已經出爐。但研究這一課題的分析人士表示，各方對於現實的見頂日期還存在不少分歧。“Frankly, we have a very broad range of projections,” says Zou Ji of China’s National Centre for Climate Change Strategy. “Xie and Su Wei [Mr Xie’s negotiating colleague in the climate talks] ask us again and again, which figure is more reliable and more reasonable?”
“坦白地說，我們預測的結果區間很大，”中國國家氣候變化戰略中心的鄒驥表示，“解振華和蘇偉（與解振華一同出席氣候談判的代表）三番五次問我們，哪一份數據更可靠、更合理？”The trouble is there are enormous problems to consider, he says. “People say: ‘Oh, coal is so dirty, let’s shut down the coal mines.’ But on the other hand we also see a very rapid increase in demand for electricity and it seems we cannot stop that.
他表示，困難在於要考慮許多嚴峻的問題。“人們說：‘哎，煤炭太髒了，把煤礦關掉吧。’但另一方面，我們發現用電需求迅速增加，看上去也無法阻止這一勢頭。“Furthermore, we also see over 10m employees in coal factories. If we shut down some of the coal mines, how will those unemployed workers be addressed with a very weak social security system?”
“此外，煤企僱傭着1000多萬人。如果我們關閉一些煤礦，考慮到社會保障體系十分薄弱，失業工人應當如何安排？”Small wonder that Fuqiang Yang, senior climate and energy adviser at the Natural Resources Defense Council, a US group that operates in China, says the emissions-peaking debate has been fraught. “The first study five years ago said China’s emissions peak will be in 2035. Many Chinese government officials said ‘Why did you say that? It’s too soon’ ”
難怪在中國開展研究項目的美國自然資源保護委員會(Natural Resources Defense Council)的氣候與能源高級顧問楊富強表示，圍繞碳排放何時見頂的辯論一直問題重重。“五年前的第一項研究稱，中國的排放量峯值將在2035年到來。許多中國政府官員表示‘爲什麼這麼說？太早了。’”He Jiankun of China’s Tsinghua University is one of the most senior advisers on climate change and has spent months trying to balance the myriad unknown variables that go into calculating China’s likely emissions peak.
中國清華大學的何建坤是氣候變化問題上最爲資深的顧問之一，最近他花費數月時間權衡大量未知變量，計算中國排放量可能見頂的日期。These include how much its growing economy will slow down in the coming decades; what the energy mix will be and how much more efficient the industrial and transport structure will become.
這些變量包括：中國增長中的經濟在未來幾十年將以多大的幅度放緩；未來的能源結構將是什麼樣的；以及工業和交通的效率將提高多少。It is a tough calculation in a planned economy that rarely performs according to the plan.
對於中國這樣很少按計劃運行的計劃經濟，估算的難度很大。He figures the peak will be around 2030, based on the idea that economic growth will gradually slow to about 5 per cent a year, that more of China’s energy will be generated from low-carbon sources and that it will be able to reduce the amount of pollutants generated per unit of GDP by 3.5 per cent every year for the next 16 years.
他估計，峯值將在2030年前後出現，依據是中國經濟年增速將逐漸降至5%左右，中國更多能源產出將來自低碳來源，以及中國能夠在未來16年將單位GDP產生的污染物每年降低3.5%。Any number of Prof He’s calculations are open to disagreement. Just discussing whether China’s one-party system can sustain an economic slowdown to less than 5 per cent is difficult for Chinese researchers. But the weight of probability points to a deceleration of the economy from today’s 7.4 per cent growth.
何建坤教授估算的任何一個數字都可能引發意見分歧。中國的一黨制體系能否承受經濟放緩至5%以下？光是討論這個問題，就讓中國的研究人員頭疼。但概率加權顯示，經濟增速將從目前的7.4%逐漸減速。There is a risk that if growth slows too fast it will trigger another attempt by Beijing to juice the economy with a shot of loose credit, as it did in 2008 after the global financial crisis and, to a lesser extent, last summer.
目前存在的一個風險是：如果增長放緩過於劇烈，中國政府將試圖爲經濟注入又一輪寬鬆信貸，它在2008年全球金融危機後曾這樣做過，去年夏天又再次祭出此招，儘管規模較小。Such stimulus efforts tend to flood the state-owned, heavy industrial sector with money, unbalancing any natural transition in the economy to a more mature, service-led structure.
此類刺激往往意味着向國有的重工業注入大量資金，從而擾亂中國經濟自然地向更成熟、服務業主導的結構轉型。A bigger problem is the assumption that China can continue to wring the same amount of energy efficiency and improvements in emissions year after year, long after the low-hanging fruit has been plucked.
更大的一個問題是，估算基於這樣一種假設：在“好摘的果子”摘完之後，中國還能繼續年復一年地取得等量的能效和減排改善。One notable aspect of a recent paper by Prof He, however, is the extent to which it examines how emissions peaked in the US, the EU and Japan as their economies moved beyond the rapid industrialisation China is now undergoing.
不過，何建坤近期一篇論文中有一點值得關注：它深入研究了美國、歐盟和日本經濟在走過中國正經歷的快速工業化之後，它們的排放量是如何見頂的。And that goes to the heart of what China offers in the Paris climate talks. “China is definitely going to offer more ambitious mitigation action and contributions than what it has offered previously,” Prof He has said in an interview.
這將觸及中國在巴黎氣候大會上提議的核心。“中國無疑將比以往提出更爲宏偉的減排目標，做出更大的貢獻，”何建坤在一次採訪中表示。But this will depend on progress in the negotiations, he added, “including the principle of equity”.
但他補充稱，這將取決於談判的進展，包括“公平原則”。Environment: Still dreaming of a blue sky
環境：不變的藍天之夢The smog was so bad that people’s eyes streamed on the way to work. Drivers had to pull over to the side of the road because they could not see for their tears. Officials fretted the pollution was a menace to aviation.
霧霾如此嚴重，以至於人們上班路上會流淚。駕駛員不得不把車停到路邊，因爲眼淚模糊了他們的視線。官員們擔心污染威脅航空安全。This was not Beijing, Shanghai or any of the other Chinese cities where a thick pall of smog regularly engulfs residents. It was Los Angeles almost 60 years ago, one of two western cities famous for choking levels of air pollution.
這不是北京、上海或是任何一座經常被濃重霧霾籠罩的中國城市，而是近60年前的洛杉磯。西方有兩座城市曾以嗆人的空氣污染而聞名，洛杉磯是其一。The other was London, where smog blanketed the city so heavily in 1952 that it killed an estimated 4,000 people.
另一座是倫敦。1952年，濃霧籠罩倫敦，據估計導致4000人喪生。It took decades for each city to clean their skies but Xie Zhenhua, China’s top climate change official, thinks Beijing’s smog can be fixed in as little as five years, even though its pollution is in some ways more dire.
它們各花了數十年才恢復了天空的清潔，但中國在氣候變化問題上的最高級別官員解振華(見右圖)認爲，雖然北京的污染在某些方面更爲嚴重，但該市的霧霾可以在短短5年時間內解決。“The London smog was caused mainly by coal combustion and sulphur dioxide emissions and Los Angeles’ smog was mainly caused by auto emissions,” he says.
“倫敦霧霾主要由燃煤和二氧化硫排放引起，洛杉磯的霧霾主要由汽車尾氣排放引起，”他表示。China has suffered both problems simultaneously, he adds, but by absorbing lessons from abroad it should be able to tackle its smog faster.
他補充稱，中國正同時遭遇上述兩種問題，但如果汲取國外教訓，它應當能更快地解決霧霾問題。“We have published 10 measures to address air pollution,” says Mr Xie. “If those measures can be honoured, it will take five to 10 years for Beijing to have a clear sky.”
“我們公佈了10項措施來解決空氣污染，”解振華表示，“如果認真落實這些措施，5到10年就能還北京一片晴空。”Whether this comes to pass remains to be seen but there is no lack of plans being rolled out to address China’s unnerving environmental woes. There appears to be an air of increasing openness about the problem. This month, a government report that had previously been classified a state secret was published, showing one-fifth of China’s agricultural land is polluted. In March, officials revealed that only three of its 74 largest cities met national air-quality standards.
治霾結果如何還有待觀察，但中國確實出臺了不少計劃來應對令人不安的環境問題。在這一問題上，中國似乎表現得越來越公開透明。上月，一份之前被列爲國家機密的政府報告發布，顯示出中國五分之一的農業用地受到污染。今年3月有官員透露，在中國最大的74座城市中，只有3座達到國家空氣質量標準。On Thursday, China finally passed long-awaited revisions to its Environmental Protection Law, removing a loophole that kept the cost of polluting lower than the cost of installing cleaner technology and opening the door to more public monitoring.
最近，中國終於通過了各方期待已久的修訂版《環境保護法》，堵住了污染成本低於安裝清潔技術成本的漏洞，並且爲加強公衆監督敞開了大門。This comes as Li Keqiang, China’s premier, declared a “war on pollution”, but as anyone breathing the air in the country’s largest cities will attest, victory is still far from evident.
與此同時，中國總理李克強宣告“向污染宣戰”。但在中國大城市呼吸空氣的每一個人都會證明，勝利還遙遠得很。
