時代公司獨立 變身美國曆史上最高齡的初創企業

You can’t take the Warner out of Time Warner TWX -2.94% , but apparently you can kick Time to the curb. And get paid in the process.

你不能將“華納”從“時代華納”（Time Warner， TWX-2.94%）中剔除，但顯然可以將“時代”掃地出門，而且還能從中賺一筆。

Time Inc., the venerable magazine publisher whose titles include Fortune, this morning was spun out into an independent company by Time Warner and has begun trading on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker symbol TIME -0.77% . Not only do shareholders in the former parent get new Time Inc. stock, but Time Warner also received $600 million via a one-time dividend paid out of Time Inc.’s $1.3 billion in recently-issued debt.

週一上午，時代公司（Time Inc.，旗下雜誌包括《財富》）這家備受尊崇的雜誌發行商從時代華納分拆出來，開始在紐交所上市，交易代碼爲TIME（TIME-0.77%）。不僅原先母公司的股東獲得了這家新公司的股票，而且時代華納也到手6億美元的一次性分紅，資金從時代公司近期通過債務融資募集的13億美元中支付。

Here’s the bull case for Time Inc: For years, the company had basically served as a piggy-bank for Time Warner, generating hundreds of millions of dollars in profit that it rarely got to reinvest in its own business. Why rock the boat with new digital initiatives when the paper mags provided steady, if declining, treasure? Now Time Inc. gets to chart its own course with new management, and already has begun bulking up its Web properties (including this site, which launched just last week with more than a dozen new staffers). In short, innovation will no longer be stifled. Time Inc. already has plenty of brand equity, and now it actually gets to evolve the brands to meet the current market.

看漲時代公司的觀點是：多年來，這家公司基本上就是在充當時代華納的搖錢樹，催生數億美元的利潤，而又極少得以再投資於自身業務——印刷版雜誌帶來的財源雖然日益萎縮，但好歹也算穩定。既然如此，何苦大興數字改革撼動現狀？而如今，依靠新的管理層，時代得以規劃自己的道路，而且已經開始壯大自己的網絡財產（包括上週剛剛上線、聘請了十幾名新員工的全新Fortune網站）。簡言之，創新將不再受到遏制。時代業已擁有足夠龐大的品牌資產，如今又得以發展品牌以滿足當前的市場需求。

Here’s the bear case: Time Inc. may not actually know how to innovate, or at least not how to do it at scale. After all, it’s pretty tough to flip the switch when those mental muscles have been atrophied after more than a decade of being told “No, don’t spend money on that.” The up-and-coming digital talent wants pre-IPO stock at places like Buzzfeed, not options in a maxed-out Time Inc. Plus, there is all that new debt. It’s not completely unwieldy, but certainly makes Time Inc. less nimble than a rival like News Corp., which received $2 billion in cash and zero debt when it was spun off NWSA -0.17% last year.

看跌時代公司的觀點是：時代也許並不知道該如何創新，或者至少不知道如何大規模創新。畢竟，聽了十多年“別在這上面花錢”的忠告，這方面的思維肌肉都已經萎縮，再要扳上開關就頗爲困難。那些嶄露頭角的數字人才要的是像Buzzfeed等公司首次公開募股前的股份，而不是幾近被榨乾油水的時代公司的一筆期權。況且還有那筆新債務。雖算不上負債累累，但時代的確已在靈活性上不及新聞集團（News Corp., NWSA -0.17%）這樣的對手，後者在去年分拆時不但沒有債務，而且還到手20億美元現金。

Here’s the pragmatic case: There have been concerns that Time Inc. shares would sink like a stone in the early days. After all, Time Warner shareholders have been told for years that Time Inc. is a drag on earnings, so wouldn’t they want to dump fast when given the new shares? Short-seller paradise. But Time Inc. stock actually climbed in pre-market trading, suggesting two factors in play: (1) Shorts may be holding off, out of fear that they’d get squeezed if Time Inc. manages to sell off a crown jewel or two. (2) Time Inc. still does have much better financials than its reputation indicates, and even skeptics may be a bit curious to see a quarter or two of independent performance.

比較務實的觀點是：一些人擔憂時代股價會在上市初期一落千丈。畢竟多年以來，時代華納股東都被告知，時代拖了集團盈利的後腿。一旦新股票到手，他們難道不會立刻拋售？這樣，它就成了做空者的天堂。但時代股票在盤前交易中不跌反漲，意味着有兩個因素在起作用：（1）空方暫且按兵不動，害怕假如時代成功拋售掉旗下一兩個最有價值資產，他們就會慘遭軋空。（2）時代公司的財務狀況仍然比傳說中好得多，就連抱着懷疑態度的人也想先觀察它獨立後前一兩個季度的業績，然後再說。

This is where it’s worth emphasizing that I don’t come to this as an unbiased reporter. Instead, I’m on the inside looking out. My colleagues and I seem to share a sense of time-constrained optimism. It’s a sprint for the privilege of running the longer race. Consider Time Inc. a startup of sorts, or at least a leveraged reboot with an extraordinary amount of brand equity. Like most startups, there is a high probability of failure. But it is hardly predetermined.

寫到這裏有必要強調一下，在這個話題上，筆者的視角不能算客觀。這些都是內部觀察的結果。我和我的同事們似乎都只在一定時間內持樂觀態度。這是一場爲爭奪長跑競賽資格而展開的短跑衝刺。不妨將時代視爲某種類型的初創企業，或至少是一場攜鉅額品牌資產進行的槓桿重啓。跟大多數初創企業一樣，失敗的機率很高，但並非一定如此。