要成爲超級大國 印度需要過三道坎

As President Obama wraps up his three-day visit to India this week, it’s a fitting time to take a closer look at a country that may well be the world’s fastest-growing major economy over the next two years. Though confronting great challenges, India has amazing opportunities with the promise of shared prosperity for its 1.25 billion citizens. But in order to make this promise a reality, India’s government and business community must work together to tackle some of its challenges and realize its economic growth potential.

本週，美國總統奧巴馬將結束對印度爲期三天的訪問，現在近距離觀察這個國家或許正合時宜。未來兩年，印度或許將成爲全世界增長最快的大型經濟體。雖然面臨嚴峻的挑戰，但印度仍有絕佳的機會實現讓12.5億國民共同繁榮的承諾。爲了達到這一目標，印度政府和商界必須精誠合作，共同應對各種挑戰，充分實現其經濟增長潛力。

In order for India to secure its economic future and provide for its citizens, the country needs to increase its GDP by 9% a year in order to become a $10 trillion economy over the next 20 years. Why $10 trillion? Because anything less would not secure India’s social and economic future. In fact, India needs to create 10 to 12 million jobs every year for the next 20 years in order to keep up with its rapidly growing population.

印度若想使其經濟擁有一個光明的未來，並養活其龐大的人口，就必須保持9%的年均GDP增長速度，進而在未來20年內成爲10萬億美元經濟體。爲什麼是10萬億？因爲低於這個水平，印度就無法保障其社會與經濟的未來。事實上，未來20年，隨着人口的快速增長，印度每年必須創造1000萬至1200萬個工作崗位。

India’s private sector has an opportunity to create jobs and grow the economy. According to PwC’s 2015 CEO Survey,73% of Indian CEOs expect to boost headcount within the next 12 months, and this is highest compared to any other country in the world. Sixty-two percent of Indian CEOs are very confident in their companies’ growth over the next 12 months — significantly higher than the 39% global average. Finally, 84% of India’s CEOs believe there are more growth opportunities for their companies today than three years ago – again, the highest percentage in the world. This sentiment is driven both by long-term growth prospects in a country with an emerging middle class of 600 million people, and by the more immediate catalyst of a clear mandate for India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was elected just last May.

印度的私營部門有機會創造就業，並拉動經濟發展。根據普華永道會計事務所2015年對印度CEO所做的調查， 73%的CEO預計在未來12個月將增加員工人數，這一比例高於其他任何國家。62%的CEO對公司在未來12個月的增長前景非常有信心——遠遠高於39%的全球平均水平。最後，84%的CEO相信，相比三年前，自己的公司現在有更多發展機會——該比例同樣超過其他國家。這種信心來源於6億新興中產階級爲整個國家帶來的長期發展前景，以及納倫德拉o莫迪去年五月份高票當選印度總理所產生的催化效應。

But creating jobs and growing the economy cannot be achieved by India’s private sector alone. The Indian government, led by Modi, must work with businesses to implement the reforms necessary to boost the country’s economic growth and development—here, it faces three major challenges:

但創造就業和發展經濟，僅靠私營部門不可能實現。莫迪領導的新政府必須與商界精誠合作，推行必要的改革，促進國家經濟增長和發展——但在這方面，它將面臨三個主要挑戰：

First, India’s education system presents a major e India produces quality talent from its most elite institutes, the vast majority of graduates from its primary and secondary education are not sufficiently skilled. That, combined with a recent national survey indicating declining reading levels in schools, does not bode well for India’s ability to develop the educated and skilled labor force needed to fill new positions. Over the next two decades, India must deliver high-quality, formal education to seven million additional children each year in order to meet the country’s demands for skilled labor. Doing so won’t be easy with traditional education strategies, given that just over 3% of India’s GDP is targeted at education, compared with an average of more than 6% across the rest of the world.

首先，印度的教育系統面臨一個重大挑戰。雖然印度最頂級的學院可以培養出優秀的人才，但大多數小學和中學畢業生能力不足。而且最近的全國普查顯示，學生在校的閱讀水平在持續下降，這對於印度而言並非好兆頭，將使得它難以培養出填補新工作崗位所需的熟練勞動力。未來二十年，印度必須爲每年新增的七百萬兒童提供高質量的正規教育，才能滿足國家對熟練工人的需求。按照傳統的教育策略很難實現這一目標，因爲印度GDP中僅有3%被用於教育，而世界其他國家的平均水平則超過6%。

While reforming the country’s education system is clearly a job for the government, business must play a role and work with the government to ensure a strong pipeline of educated and skilled talent. The recent effort to foster skill development through the National Skill Development Corporation is one such attempt at creating a skilled workforce.

很顯然，改革教育體制將是印度政府的工作之一，但公司也必須發揮自己的作用，需要與政府合作打造一個強大的管道，以不斷輸出接受過教育的技術型人才。國家技能發展公司近期促進技能培養的努力，便是爲培養熟練工人進行的一次嘗試。

Second, India’s economy will not achieve sufficient growth through traditional, linear approaches. As President Obama meets with Prime Minister Modi, increasing bilateral trade and investment has certainly been on their agenda. Over the weekend, they resolved key issues in a long-stalled nuclear deal that for years kept U.S. nuclear companies from doing business in India. More needs to be done, however. Trade and investment, both public and private, must focus on productivity and innovation. This will require foreign direct investment that will drive technological spillovers and consequently, will drive innovation. According to PwC’s recent research, a 9% growth scenario in India will be unattainable unless the country makes a strong push in innovation and Research & Development, tripling its R&D spend from 0.8% to 2.4% of GDP over the next two decades.

其次，按照傳統的線性方式，印度經濟將無法實現充分的增長。提高雙邊貿易和投資，當然是奧巴馬和莫迪重點磋商的議題之一。美國的核能公司一直無法在印度開展業務，上週末，雙方停滯多年的核能談判取得突破。但這還遠遠不夠。公共和私營領域的貿易與投資必須將效率與創新作爲核心。這需要能夠推動技術外溢，進而帶動創新的外國直接投資。普華永道近期的調查顯示，未來二十年，印度政府必須大力推動創新和研發，將其研發投入在GDP的佔比從0.8%提高到2.4%，纔有可能實現9%的增長目標。

This is not news to India’s CEOs. The country’s business leaders are concerned with a variety of challenges hindering innovation, R&D and foreign investment. These issues include bribery, corruption, volatile energy costs, and the availability of key skills. Critically, 82% of the Indian CEOs surveyed by PwC said that a government priority should be ensuring adequate infrastructure, while 68% think their government has been ineffective in doing so.

對於印度的CEO們來說，這不是什麼新聞。印度的商界領袖對於妨礙創新、研發和外國投資的各種挑戰非常擔憂。這些問題包括賄賂、腐敗、不穩定的能源成本和關鍵技能的缺失。普華永道調查的印度CEO中，有82%表示政府的首要任務應該是確保充足的基礎設施，但有68%的受訪者認爲政府在這方面並不稱職。

Finally, attracting foreign investments presents a serious challenge, with international businesses wary of India’s regulatory landscape, issues related to corruption and an infrastructure in need of significant upgrade. In order to boost investor confidence, Modi has launched a diplomatic offensive to court foreign governments and investors. By the end of this month —and less than a year into his five-year term — the prime minister will have visited or hosted the leaders of the United States, Australia, Brazil, China, and Japan, among others. However, if India is to attract American companies and investors, it must meet its significant domestic challenges head on.

最後，吸引外國投資面臨嚴峻的挑戰，印度的監管政策、腐敗問題和亟需大規模升級的基礎設施，令外國公司非常謹慎。爲了提高投資者的信心，莫迪向外國政府和投資者展開魅力攻勢。截至本月底，上任不足一年（任期五年）的莫迪訪問或接待的外國領導人包括美國、澳大利亞、巴西、中國和日本等。但印度若想吸引美國公司和投資者，必須正面應對國內的嚴峻挑戰。

As India seeks a growth trajectory of 9%, the nation will be attempting one of the largest democratic nation building exercises in recent history. As it does so, the opportunities for U.S. and Indian businesses, entrepreneurs and investors are enormous.

如果印度實現9%的發展速度，這個最大的民主國家將書寫近代史中最輝煌的經濟建設篇章之一。在此過程中，美國和印度的企業、創業者和投資者將迎來巨大的機遇。