中國作爲製造業投資首選地的魅力下降

China is still the most favoured manufacturing destination in the emerging markets. But other developing countries such as Mexico and Indonesia are showing promise.

中國仍是新興市場中最受青睞的製造業投資目的地。但墨西哥和印度尼西亞等其他發展中國家開始顯現出潛質。

Over the past decade, China reigned comfortably atop the list of destinations for greenfield manufacturing facilities by foreign companies, with its level of inbound capital investment on manufacturing projects dwarfing that of other developing countries. Since 2005, China has received three times the number of projects and capital investment of its closest competitor, India, according to fDi Markets, an FT data service.

過去十年裏，中國一直在外企新建制造業設施投資目的地榜單上穩坐頭把交椅，流入中國的製造業項目資本投資額令其他發展中國家相形見絀。英國《金融時報》旗下數據服務機構fDi Markets的數據顯示，自2005年以來，中國吸引到的項目數量以及資本投資額是與其差距最小的競爭對手印度的3倍。

But over the past year Mexico has gained momentum as a manufacturing destination, moving up to the number two spot and edging out India by number of projects. In 2014 Mexico attracted 165 investments. Vietnam is another fast riser, ranking second by capital investment, at $19bn against China’s $40bn and Mexico’s $16bn. India, riding on an economic resurgence and an FDI boom, continues to perform well in manufacturing, attracting 149 projects worth $7bn.

但就過去一年的情況而言，墨西哥作爲製造業投資目的地的勢頭有所增強，以項目數量計在榜單上升至第二位，略領先於印度。2014年，墨西哥吸引到165個投資項目。越南是另一個在榜單上攀升速度很快的國家，以資本投資額計名列第二位，越南吸引到的資本投資額爲190億美元，中國和墨西哥分別爲400億美元和160億美元。得益於經濟復興和外商直接投資(FDI)迅速增長，印度在製造業方面繼續表現良好，吸引到149個項目，價值70億美元。

Russia, suffering from a lack of investor confidence due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, has slipped down the charts. Having been ranked fifth by number of projects between 2010-14, last year it came tenth by the same measure. But large investments by Chinese automotive companies bolstered capital investment levels to $9bn.

受困於地緣政治緊張和經濟不確定性導致的投資者信心缺失，俄羅斯在榜單上的位置有所下降。2010年至2014年，俄吸引到的項目數量排在第五位，就去年一年的情況而言，則排在第十位。不過，中國車企對俄的大舉投資使得俄吸引到資本投資額上升到90億美元。

Indonesia attracted only 56 projects last year — a sixth of the number that went to China — but for an estimated total of an impressive $12bn. The country’s performance as a manufacturing country has been strong over the past five years, with its $55bn in capital investment placing it fifth during that period. Among the more sizeable recent investments, Netherlands-based VI Holding, through its subsidiary Vimetco, a producer of aluminium products, said in the autumn of 2014 that it planned to invest $1bn to establish an alumina refinery in Kalimantan. The company also announced plans to invest $500m to establish a ferronickel smelter in Indonesia through a joint venture with a local partner. And late run 2014, China-based Shandong Fuhai Group, another provider of aluminium products, said it would invest $1.2bn with Ansteel Group in the development of an industrial estate and infrastructure facilities in Ujung Jabung. The project includes a steel plant that is expected to have a 1.75m tonnes-per-year capacity, to be primarily sold in the domestic market.

去年，印尼只吸引到56個項目——爲中國的六分之一——但項目總價值卻高達120億美元左右。過去五年裏，印尼作爲製造業國家的表現很突出，吸引到的資本投資額爲550億美元，排在第五位。2014年秋，總部位於荷蘭的VI Holding通過子公司、鋁材生產商Vimetco表示，打算投資10億美元在加裏曼丹建立一家氧化鋁冶煉廠。該公司還宣佈，打算通過與當地一個合作夥伴組建合資企業，投資5億美元在印尼建立一家鎳鐵冶煉廠。2014年底，另一家鋁材生產商、中國山東富海集團(Shandong Fuhai Group)表示，將與鞍鋼集團(Ansteel Group)共同投資12億美元，在烏戎嘉翁(Ujung Jabung)開發一個工業園區和基礎設施。該項目包括一個預計年產能達175萬噸的鋼廠，產品主要供應印尼國內市場。這些都是近來一些較爲大手筆的投資的例子。

An analysis of manufacturing costs byfDi Benchmark, a location assessment data service owned by the FT, reveals that Indonesia’s success could be at least in part cost-driven. Combining compound labour costs for a hypothetical aerospace manufacturing facility, the study shows costs in Indonesia declining 5 per cent since 2010. Costs in China, in contrast, have increased nearly 16 per cent, against a nearly 4 per cent rise in Vietnam and 3 per cent in Mexico. Thailand has experienced a notable cost inflation of more than 10 per cent, although this does not appear yet to be hurting its attractiveness for manufacturing projects: the country continues to rank comfortably within the top ten locations.

英國《金融時報》旗下投資地點評估數據服務機構fDi Benchmark在分析製造業成本後發現，印尼的成功至少在一定程度上是由成本驅動的。彙總了一個假想的航空航天製造設施的複合勞動成本後，該調查顯示，印尼的成本自2010年以來下降了5%。相比之下，中國的成本升高了近16%，越南和墨西哥分別升高了近4%和3%。泰國的成本上升顯著，升幅達10%以上，不過這似乎還沒有傷及該國對製造業項目的吸引力：泰國在項目數量上繼續穩居前十之列。

Indonesia, though, stands poised to take on other Southeast Asian countries as a manufacturing hub for the region, if it could tackle its longstanding problems of bureaucracy and corruption, improve infrastructure and make other improvements to the investment climate.

不過，如果印尼能夠解決其長期存在官僚和腐敗問題、完善基礎設施並在其他方面改善投資環境，它就有望挑戰其他東南亞國家的地區製造業中心地位。