赴東南亞中國遊客人數驟降 Chinese travellers desert south east Asia

Key Southeast Asian markets have seen a marked drop in Chinese tourists, a growth sector across much of the globe, as air crashes and geopolitical tensions take their toll.

前往東南亞主要旅遊目的地的中國遊客顯著減少，這在一定程度上是不止一起空難和地緣政治緊張的結果。對於全球很多地方，接待出境遊的中國人是一個成長型行業。

While China spends more on outbound travel than any other nation, up 28 per cent to $165bn last year, the reversal of fortunes for some of Southeast Asia’s main tourism destinations underlines the risks that countries face as they look to China for growth.

儘管中國人在出境遊期間的支出多於其他任何國家（去年增長28%，至1650億美元），但東南亞一些主要旅遊目的地的命運逆轉，突顯了目的地國家寄望中國實現增長的風險。

The trend is particularly concerning for countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia, which were banking on Chinese tourists to help boost their slowing economies.

這一趨勢尤其讓馬來西亞和印尼等國擔憂，這些國家此前寄望中國遊客幫助提振不斷放緩的經濟。

“These Asian markets have been the early recipients of the largest Chinese outbound flows and have quickly adapted to a recognition that the China market will progressively swamp all others,” said Will Horton, an analyst at the Centre for Aviation, a research company, in Hong Kong.

“這些亞洲市場是中國人出境遊高潮時期的早期目的地，它們很快適應了一種認識，即中國人將逐步擠掉其他所有客源，”研究公司——航空中心(Centre for Aviation)的分析師威爾霍頓(Will Horton)在香港表示。

“Chinese media and shifts in political winds can abruptly — but often temporarily — turn off traffic flows. Excessive reliance on any one tourism source inevitably creates this problem.”

“中國的媒體和政治風向變化可能突然——但往往是暫時地——中斷客流。過度依賴任何一個旅遊客源，都不可避免會產生這個問題。”

Excluding Thailand, which has seen a rebound in Chinese tourists since its military coup last year, the number of Chinese visitors to Southeast Asia fell in the first three months of this year to 1.5m from 1.9m a year earlier, according to the Centre for Aviation.

航空中心的數據顯示，若剔除泰國（該國在去年發生軍事政變後，已迎來中國遊客人數反彈），前往東南亞的中國遊客在今年頭三個月降至150萬，而去年同期達到190萬。

That signals a continuing trend, with Chinese arrivals in Southeast Asia, excluding Thailand, falling to 6.2m last year from 6.4m in 2013.

這標誌着一個持續的趨勢，去年，前往東南亞（除泰國外）的中國遊客從2013年的640萬降至620萬。

By contrast, Japan, helped by its weakening currency, and the rest of north Asia have seen a jump in Chinese tourists, up 38 per cent to 3.3m in the first quarter of this year, compared with a year earlier.

相比之下，前往日本（得益於日元疲軟）以及北亞其他國家的中國遊客人數出現躍升，今年首季同比增長38%，至330萬。

Michael Beer, an aviation analyst at Citigroup in Hong Kong, said that the deadly crashes last year involving Malaysia Airlines’ flights MH370 and MH17 and AirAsia Indonesia’s QZ8501 had shaken Chinese tourists’ confidence in travelling to the region.

花旗集團(Citigroup)常駐香港的航空業分析師邁克爾貝爾(Michael Beer)表示，去年發生的幾起致命空難——馬來西亞航空公司(Malaysia Airlines)的MH370航班和MH17航班，以及亞航印尼(AirAsia Indonesia)的QZ8501航班——使中國遊客有點不敢前往東南亞。

Malaysia’s much-criticised handling of the loss of MH370, which disappeared en route to Beijing, has added to the reluctance to travel there.

馬航的MH370航班在飛往北京途中失聯，馬來西亞對這起事件的處理受到大量批評，使中國遊客更不願意前往該國。

Vietnam and the Philippines have suffered because of rising political tensions connected to their maritime disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea.

越南和菲律賓受到影響，則是因爲兩國與中國政府在南中國海的海上糾紛導致政治緊張不斷升溫。

Mr Horton argues that countries and airlines need to take a more nuanced approach to the Chinese market.

航空中心的霍頓認爲，旅遊目的地國家和航空公司需要對中國遊客市場採取更細膩的戰略。

“There is little doubt that in the long term Chinese tourists will change the face of global tourism,” he said. “But managing the short- and medium-term blips will be a big part of a China tourism strategy.”

“毫無疑問，長期而言中國遊客將改變全球旅遊業格局，”他說。“但是，管理中短期的起伏將是對華旅遊戰略的一個重要組成部分。”