中國人赴日搶購紙尿褲 Rationing hits Japan's nappy trade as Chinese demand soars

With the shops in Tokyo’s Ginza district preparing to close for the day, and the tour guide begging they return to the coach, two tourists from Chengdu, China, hit a crescendo in their debate over quality, styling and workmanship.

東京銀座的商店正準備打烊，導遊正在勸說兩名來自中國成都的遊客回到大巴車上，而這兩名遊客關於質量、款式和做工的討論達到了高潮。

Rationed to a single case each because of extraordinary demand, one grabs the largest box of Merries, the other a box of Goo.N and they leave in divided silence. When it comes to Japanese nappies and their beloved softness, Chinese passions run high.

由於購買需求異常旺盛，每名消費者限購一箱紙尿褲。其中一名遊客抓起最大的一箱妙而舒(Merries)，另一個人則拿起一箱大王(Goo.N)，最後帶着分歧沉默地離開了。一提到日本紙尿褲及其受人歡迎的柔軟度，中國人便熱情高漲。

Investors are trying to parse the demographics, arbitrage windows, bottlenecks and distortions of an Asian nappy market with annual sales of about $12bn, forecast by CLSA to reach $45bn by 2030.

投資者正嘗試着解析亞洲紙尿褲市場的人口統計特徵、套利窗口、瓶頸以及扭曲狀況。據里昂證券(CLSA)預計，到2030年亞洲紙尿褲市場的年銷售額將從目前的120億美元上漲至450億美元。

As wealthier societies age, adult diapers are expected to represent an ever-larger portion of these sales, but in the shorter term, the focus is on Asia’s rising middle class and its babies.

隨着較富裕國家日益老齡化，成人紙尿褲佔亞洲紙尿褲銷售額的份額將日益擴大，但是在短期內，亞洲不斷壯大的中產階級及其新生兒纔是該市場的重心。

CLSA and Euromonitor data suggest a tight correlation between expansion of this socio-economic group across the region and increased disposable nappy adoption. Indonesia’s 16m under-threes now work their way through an average of eight disposable nappies per baby per month. Five years ago, demand was a quarter of that.

里昂證券和歐睿(Euromonitor)的數據顯示，整個亞洲這一社會經濟羣體的擴大與一次性紙尿褲的使用量增加之間存在緊密關聯。印度尼西亞目前有1600萬的3歲以下兒童，平均每個兒童每月使用8片紙尿褲。而5年前的需求量是這一水平的四分之一。

China’s average per baby consumption per month leapt from 21 five years ago to 39 last year. Wang Jingyi, a 25-year-old from Beijing who has a seven-month-old daughter, typifies the local tendency to opt for Japanese versions. “I’ve never used a Chinese brand diaper,” she explains.

中國嬰兒平均每個月使用的紙尿褲數量從5年前的21片增加至去年的39片。王靜宜（音譯）來自北京，今年25歲，有個7個月大的女兒，她代表了中國人選擇日本紙尿褲的傾向。“我從來沒用過中國國產品牌的紙尿褲，”她解釋道。

As the world’s largest producer of nappy-making machines, Japan’s Zuiko has a privileged insight into this surging market. It says Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia are areas where investment in future nappy production is hottest. Zuiko’s sales figures from last year suggest that it has positioned its mostly Asian customers to churn out an additional 7bn nappies as demand soars.

作爲全球最大的紙尿褲生產設備製造商，日本瑞光(Zuiko)對於這個迅速發展的市場有着特有的見解。瑞光稱，泰國、馬來西亞和印度尼西亞是對未來的紙尿褲生產投資最熱的國家。瑞光去年的銷售數據表明，隨着需求飆升，預計其客戶（主要爲亞洲廠商）的產量將增加70億片。

The popularity of Merries, produced by Japan’s Kao Corp and hotly favoured on internet forums in China, is a symptom of the unusual times. The limit of one-box-per-visit for premium brands is not only in place at Chinese tourist-thronged stores in Ginza, but in supermarkets across Japan.

妙而舒的人氣是如今這個非常時代的一個表現。該品牌由日本花王集團(Kao Corp)生產，在中國的網絡論壇上備受青睞。優質品牌每人限購一箱的限制不僅出現在中國遊客聚集的銀座商店，還存在於日本各地的超市。

Nappy rationing, now in force for more than a year, sits strangely in a country with one of the lowest birth-rates in the world.

紙尿褲限購已實施了一年多，在這個出生率居於全世界最低水平的國家，這頗爲奇怪。

Kao has ramped up production in Japan to its limit, and has attempted to take greater control over its ecommerce sales into China. Still the shortages persist, and lead times for new production facilities are longer than they used to be because Japan has led nappy technology to become more complex. Even if Kao placed an order tomorrow with Zuiko for a new Merries-making machine, it would not relieve pressure on the market before early 2017.

花王已經將其在日本的產量提高至極限，並且嘗試着更好地控制在中國電子商務渠道的銷量。不過短缺情況仍在持續，同時，由於日本引領紙尿褲技術發展得更加複雜，新生產設備的交貨週期比過去更長。即便花王明天向瑞光下單訂購一臺全新的妙而舒生產設備，這也只能在2017年初以後緩解市場壓力。

Meanwhile, there is little to suggest any let-up from Chinese buyers, particularly if the yen continues to trade in its recent range. Demand for Merries is driven by China’s rising clamour for Japanese quality in all things worn, ingested or rubbed on to the skin. Another propellant has been the depreciation of the Japanese currency since 2013: Chinese tourists, along with parallel exporters, quickly spotted that it is cheaper to get a box of Merries in Shizuoka than in Shanghai.

與此同時，沒有什麼依據表明中國消費者有停止搶購紙尿褲的跡象，特別是在日元繼續維持現有匯率水平的情況下。中國日益追捧日本在服裝、食品以及護膚品等一切產品上的質量，這推動了中國對妙而舒的需求。另一個助推因素是自2013年開始的日元貶值：中國遊客以及平行出口商迅速發現，在靜岡縣買一箱妙而舒比在上海買更便宜。

Occasionally, suburban Japanese supermarkets clock the fact that nappy export gangs are arriving in trucks and loading up with product bound for China. But attempts to calculate the scale of the parallel exports are tricky. One guide is the surge of Merries’ share in Japan: up from 23 per cent in 2012 to 29 per cent last year.

位於日本郊區的超市偶爾會遇到這樣的情況：紙尿褲的出口商開着卡車前來，再裝滿發往中國的商品。然而，想要算出平行出口的規模卻成了棘手的問題。一種體現指標是妙而舒在日本所佔市場份額的增長：從2012年的23%上升至去年的29%。

This was not grabbed from domestic competitors, say analysts, but pure market expansion driven by parallel exports to China.

分析師稱，這部分增長並不是從日本本土競爭者手裏奪走的，而是由向中國的平行出口推動的純粹市場擴張。