全球時事:伊拉克大選血雨腥風

THE chants that rose from a furious crowd ofmourners in the city of Kirkuk on April 24th were hardly subtle. “Death to Maliki!” cried some among the throng of thousands, referring to Iraq’s primeminister, Nuri al-Maliki. “Revenge against the agents of Iran!” chimed others,underscoring the bitterness with which the Sunni Arabs who dominate one side ofthe city regard the Shia-led government in Baghdad. The day before, securityforces had shot dead at least 27 Sunni protesters in Hawija, a town half an hour’sdrive to the west.

4月24日，在基爾庫克，一羣憤怒送葬者不斷重複呼喊，一片轟動。成千上萬的人聚集，有些人喊道“馬利基去死！”，直指伊拉克總理努裏·馬利基。“報復這個伊朗人的代理！”另外一些人遙相呼應道，喊出了在什葉派主導的巴格達政府統治下，遜尼派阿拉伯人的辛酸。遜尼派阿拉伯人主宰着半個基爾庫克。前一天，安全部隊在Hawija開槍打死了至少27名遜尼派示威人士。Hawija是基爾庫克以西的一個小鎮，相距半小時的車程。

The killings marked the sharpest rise in sectariantension in recent months, as Sunnis across a swathe of northern and westernIraq mounted protests against Mr Maliki’s government. His security men hadhitherto responded with wary restraint. However, provoked by the killing of asoldier in Hawija on April 19th, they had besieged a sit-in by several hundredSunnis. Despite efforts by Sunni politicians to negotiate an end to it, troopsstormed in at dawn on April 23rd. An army statement said the demonstrators hadbeen “infiltrated by Baathist and al-Qaeda elements”. Besides, three soldiershad been killed.

最近幾個月以來，伊拉克北部和西部的一部分遜尼派發起了對馬利基政府的抗議，而這場殺戮標誌着宗派緊張局勢的嚴重升級。他的保安人員自此非常警惕。然而，4月19日Hawija一名士兵被殺，從而招致數百遜尼派靜坐圍攻。儘管遜尼派政治勢力試圖通過談判解決問題，部隊於4月23日清晨衝進來。軍方聲明稱，示威者被“復興黨和基地組織（al-Qaeda）滲透”。此外，三名士兵被打死。

This has precipitated the biggest crisis in Iraqsince American troops left in December 2011. Sunni protesters in the provincesof Anbar and Nineveh declared a general strike amid an outburst of clashes witharmy and police that have so far left scores more dead. Two Sunni members of MrMaliki’s cabinet resigned, raising to four the number of Sunni ministers toabandon the government since March 1st, while Sunni-dominated political partiessaid they would boycott the parliament.

此次事件迅速成爲自美國軍隊2011年12月撤出伊拉克以來最大的一次危機。在安巴爾省和尼尼微省的遜尼派抗議者捲入與軍隊和警察的衝突中，並宣佈大罷工，到目前爲止，衝突已經導致數十人喪生。馬利基內閣兩名遜尼派成員辭職，自此，3月1日以來，離開政府的遜尼派部長人數增加到4個。當時遜尼派佔主導的政黨紛紛表示，他們將抵制議會。

More ominously still, some sheikhs of Sunni tribesjoined religious figures to declare that a “red line” had been eforth, they warned in widely circulated videos, activists would be armedand ready to hit back against the army. Among the myriad Sunni protest groups,several suggested a shift towards the tactics of al-Qaeda, which has beenblamed for sporadic bombing attacks not only on Shias but also on fellow Sunnistarred as “collaborators” with the government in Baghdad. The spectre looms ofIraq following the path of Syria, where the regime’s brutality turned apeaceful uprising into an armed and increasingly sectarian revolt.

更爲不祥的是，一些遜尼派部落酋長跟宗教人士一起宣稱，事情已經超出他們的“底線”。此後，他們通過廣爲流傳的視頻警告說，活動分子將配備武裝，並準備對軍隊進行回擊。在錯綜複雜的遜尼派抗議團體中，有些建議向基地組織的戰術進行轉變，基地組織被指爲零星爆炸襲擊事件的元兇，這些襲擊不僅針對什葉派，還包括被指爲巴格拉政府的“合作者”的遜尼派人士。大家擔心伊拉克將步敘利亞之後塵——敘利亞政權的暴行使得和平起義演變成日益宗派化的武裝反叛。

With the departure of Sunni ministers and anger onSunni streets, Iraq’s already shaky political apparatus may find it hard tostem a slide into general violence. Mr Maliki has ordered an inquiry into theHawija incident, chaired by Saleh al-Mutlaq, one of the few top Sunnipoliticians with whom he is still on talking terms. But the prime minister,despite the reflexive backing he may count on from Shias, who make up some 60%of Iraq’s population, has lately been weakened by a boycott of his governmentby Kurdish ministers and members of his federal parliament, as well as bysniping from Shia politicians.

隨着遜尼派部長離職以及遜尼派街道上的憤怒升級，伊拉克原本搖搖欲墜的政治機構可能很難阻止局勢發展成爲大規模暴力。馬利基已下令由薩利赫·穆特拉克領導調查Hawija事件。穆特拉克是馬利基仍保持對話的少數幾個高級遜尼派政客之一。儘管首相馬利基可能指望什葉派的支持——什葉派約佔伊拉克人口的60％，但庫爾德部長們以及馬利基的聯邦議會成員最近對其政府的抵制，以及什葉派政治家的抨擊，使其力量削弱不少。

The outcome of elections held in 12 of Iraq’s 18provinces on April 20th may weaken him more; polls were postponed in thelargely Sunni, Kurdish or mixed provinces. During the run-up the assassinationof at least 14 candidates, all Sunnis, further dampened Sunni enthusiasm forvoting, but even in the quieter Shia-dominated parts of Iraq, the turnout waslow.

4月20日在伊拉克18個省份中的12個省舉行了選舉，其結果可能進一步削弱他的勢力；遜尼派、庫爾德人佔大多數或是兩者兼有的幾個省份推遲了投票。在大選醞釀期間，至少有14名候選人被暗殺，而且全部都是遜尼派，這進一步打擊遜尼派的投票熱情，但即使在較爲平靜的什葉派占主導地位的地區，投票率也很低。

Full results are not yet in, but early estimatessuggest a sharp decline in seats for Mr Maliki’s State of Law coalition andperhaps a loss of its outright majority of provincial-council seats. Mr Malikilooks increasingly beleaguered, not just among Sunnis, but among fellow Shias,too.

所有統計結果尚未揭曉，但早期的估計表明，馬利基的國家法律聯盟所佔席位急劇減少，甚至可能失去其佔絕對多數的省級議會席位。馬利基看起來逐漸陷入困境，不僅是在遜尼派，在什葉派中間也是如此。