小心別被忽悠了 美國仍存在赤字問題

The Congressional Budget Office recently put out new budget projections and commentators have had a series of feel-good moments about it. Debt is under control, they say. Projections of Medicare costs continue to fall, they point out. The CBO’s estimates of future interest rates, and hence interest payments, have come down as well, they echo. Amidst all of the congratulations, it is worth pointing out two facts that might give one pause in claiming “victory” in the deficit wars.

美國國會預算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office）最近公佈了新的預算估算報告。這份報告已經讓評論人士迎來了一系列感覺良好的時刻。他們表示，債務已經得到控制。他們指出，聯邦醫療保險（Medicare）的預期成本將繼續下降。他們還宣稱，根據國會預算辦公室的估算，未來的利率水平也將下降，利息支出因而將減少。在一片歡呼雀躍聲中，值得指出的是，有兩個事實可能會延緩他們宣佈贏得這場赤字戰爭“勝利”的時間。

First, the overall debt level is already high relative to historical norms. At its current level of 74%, the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP is at its highest ever, except for seven years around World War II. At that time, the debt ratio peaked at 106% at the end of the war and then fell rapidly, due to low interest rates, inflation, and a generation’s worth of strong economic growth that we can only hope to see again anytime soon.

首先，和歷史正常水平相比，美國政府的債務總額仍處於高位。目前，聯邦政府債務佔美國GDP的74%，除了二戰前後的7年，這是該比率有史以來的最高水平。二戰結束時，美國的政府債務佔GDP的比率爲106%，但隨後快速下降，原因是低利率、低通脹以及維持了二三十年的強勁經濟增長。如今我們只能盼望着這樣的經濟發展勢頭能在短時間內再次出現。

Now, however, the debt-to-GDP ratio is not projected to fall. It is projected to creep up slowly over the next decade and then more rapidly in the future. It used to be the case that people worried about whether the debt would increase to high levels – like 74% of GDP. Now, we have arrived there. Before the Great Recession, even with the major tax cuts, new entitlements, increased domestic spending and the expanded military operations of the Bush administration, the debt-to-GDP ratio was just half as big as it is now.

但是，政府債務佔GDP比率預期不會下降。今後十年內，這個數字預計將緩慢上升，隨後還將迅速增長。以前，人們擔心政府債務將達到很高的水平，比方佔GDP的74%。而現在，這已經成爲現實。在“經濟大衰退(Great Recession)”之前，就算布什政府大幅度減稅，增加社會福利，提高國內支出並擴大軍事行動規模，那時的政府債務佔GDP比率也只有現在的一半。

It is interesting that many people who thought former U.S. president George W. Bush’s agenda was unaffordable back when the debt-to-GDP ratio was half as big as it is now feel that a ratio of 74% is nothing to worry about as debt is predicted to rise further.

有意思的是，在當時的情況下，許多人都認爲美國負擔不了喬治oWo布什總統的開支計劃。如今，在政府債務佔GDP比率達到74%，並且預期還將進一步增長之際，這些人卻覺得沒什麼可擔心的。

But higher deficits, as the CBO reminds us, will crowd out investment, reduce economic growth and reduce the increase in living standards for the population as a whole. More generally, if sustaining a high debt-to-GDP ratio were politically and economically costless, one would have seen many more countries, before the Great Recession, in high net debt territory. After all, countries could spend more and cut taxes with impunity if the debt-to-GDP ratio didn’t matter. In fact, very few were above 70 percent. It is not a good place to be historically nor comparatively.

然而，就像國會預算辦公室所提醒的那樣，赤字增多會擠佔投資空間，降低經濟增長率，降低美國民衆生活水平的提升速度。更廣義地講，如果居高不下的政府債務佔GDP比率不產生任何政治和經濟成本，許許多多國家就會在“經濟大衰退”之前出現高額淨負債。畢竟，如果政府債務佔GDP比率無關痛癢，許多國家就可以毫無顧忌地增加開支並減稅。而實際上，政府債務佔GDP比率超過70%的國家少之又少。無論是以往，還是和別的國家相比，如此高的政府債務都不是好現象。

Second, the current projections of the deficit could prompt unwarranted complacency because they reflect both an improving economy and underlying spending and revenue trends. The figure below shows the CBO’s baseline projection that deficits are basically flat at just under 3% of GDP over the next five years, then rise slightly.

其次，目前預測的赤字水平可能會讓人們無端地產生自滿情緒，原因是這樣的預期既暗含了經濟好轉，還體現了政府支出和收入趨勢的改善。從下圖可以看出，在國會預算辦公室預測的基準情景中，今後5年內，政府赤字佔GDP的比率基本上都將保持在3%以下，隨後略有上升。

But this can be misleading. Adjusted for the state of the economy, the deficit is actually getting bigger. As CBO and others project, the long, slow economic recovery will continue the next few years, bringing the economy very close to full employment by about 2018. The improvement of the economy reduces the deficit automatically as tax receipts rise and payments for programs like unemployment compensation fall. To separate the effects of the economy from the effects of policies, analysts examine the cyclically adjusted deficit, which removes the effects of the business cycle for a more meaningful look at the state of the deficit.

但這可能使人產生誤解。按照經濟形勢進行調整後，政府赤字實際上會變大。正如國會預算辦公室和其他機構預計的那樣，今後幾年的美國經濟將繼續處於長期緩慢復甦狀態，美國經濟差不多要到2018年纔會非常接近充分就業水平。隨着稅收逐漸增多，失業救濟等支出項目不斷減少，經濟好轉將自動降低赤字。爲區分經濟的作用和政策的作用，分析師考察的是剔除了週期性因素的赤字，它消除了經濟週期的影響，以便更有意義地觀察赤字情況。

As shown in the figure, the cyclically adjusted deficit is projected to rise sharply over the decade, from about 1.5% of GDP this year and next to more than 3.5% in the out years. (Under a more realistic alternative fiscal scenario, the cyclically adjusted deficit rises to about 3.8 % of GDP in the out years.) A full employment deficit of 3.5% of GDP is serious — the highest since 1990, when policy makers saw deficits caused Bush to violate his own “read my lips, no new taxes” pledge and led lawmakers to enact a deficit reduction package and significant budget reforms.

如圖所示，剔除週期性因素後，今後十年政府赤字預計將急劇上升，今明兩年將佔GDP的1.5%左右，隨後幾年這個比例將超過3.5%（在更爲現實的財政環境下，隨後幾年的政府赤字佔GDP的比率將達到約3.8%）。在充分就業狀態下，赤字佔GDP的比率達到3.5%是個嚴重問題——這是1990年以來的最高點。當時，決策者認爲赤字致使布什總統違背了他自己做出的“仔細聽着，我不會增加稅收”這一承諾，並促使國會通過了一攬子削減赤字措施，還進行了重大預算改革。

Long-term fiscal policy is not a crisis. It is not even the most important issue facing the economy this moment – strengthening the recovery is – and the fiscal situation should not stand in the way of changes along those lines. Deficit projections have come down the last few years and are subject to uncertainty.

長期財政政策不會帶來危機。它甚至都不是目前美國經濟面臨的最重要問題——現在最重要的是加快經濟復甦。財政情況不應該妨礙基於這些原則而進行的調整。在過去幾年中，對赤字的預期不斷下降，而且存在不確定性。

But don’t confuse these points with claims of victory in the debt wars. There is still a long way to go and a lot to gain from dealing with fiscal policy choices – in the right way at the right time.

不過，不要把這些和宣稱我們贏得了債務戰爭勝利混爲一談。我們還有很長的路要走，還需要用合適的方法在合適的時候通過選擇財政政策來爭取很多東西。

Bill Gale, the Arjay and Frances Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy in the Economic Studies Program at Brookings Institution, is an expert on tax policy, fiscal issues, pensions, and saving behavior. He is also co-director of the Tax Policy Center and director of the Retirement Security Project at Brookings.

比爾o蓋爾在布魯金斯研究所（Brookings Institution）經濟研究項目Arjay and Frances Miller Chair教席研究員，專攻聯邦經濟政策，是稅收政策、財政問題、退休金和儲蓄行爲專家。他還是該研究所稅收政策中心聯席主任和退休保障項目的負責人。