起底亞馬遜金牌服務
In December 2004, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos threw out a challenge to a small group of employees huddled in the boathouse behind his Medina, Wash. home, a sprawling 5-acre estate on the shore of Lake Washington. Find a way to expand and speed up free shipping, he told them, as a way to increase customer loyalty.
Two Months after that brainstorming session, Amazon unveiled Prime. Customers who paid $79 annually would get “free” two-day delivery nationwide for an unlimited number of orders.
經過兩個月的頭腦風暴，亞馬遜推出了金牌服務項目Prime——支付79美元年費的客戶，可以在全美範圍內免費獲得不限次數的兩天送達服務。“Two-day shipping becomes an everyday experience rather than an occasional indulgence,” Bezos wrote online in introducing the program.
在推介這個項目時，貝佐斯曾經在網絡上寫道：“兩天送達服務將變成一種日常體驗，而不是偶爾的奢侈。”
Since its launch 10 years ago, Amazon Prime has irrevocably transformed shoppers’ expectations and, in turn, spearheaded an all-out arms race for faster shipping. Meanwhile Prime has evolved far beyond its simple roots into an all-inclusive package of streaming entertainment, e-book lending and exclusive access to a growing stable of Amazon-branded products like baby wipes.
推出10年來，亞馬遜Prime服務已經不可避免地改變了網購者的預期，反過來也在快遞服務領域掀起了一場軍備競賽。另外，Prime也從單一的快遞服務發展爲包含流媒體娛樂、電子書借閱在內的一系列服務，同時Prime的用戶也有機會獨家享受越來越多的、冠以亞馬遜品牌的商品，比如嬰兒溼巾。Today, Amazon says Prime has “tens of millions of members” in the U.S., a typically opaque number from a company that hoards business metrics like state secrets. Analysts speculate there are between 40 and 50 million members worldwide.
亞馬遜表示，目前Prime在美國已經擁有“幾千萬名會員”，對於這家總是將業務指標視爲國家機密的公司，這是一個典型的模糊數字。分析師估計，Prime服務的全球會員應該在4000萬到5000萬之間。Whatever the case, Prime has turned out to be a crucial tool for acquiring customers for Amazon, helping it become the dominant e-commerce company it is now and a threat to all retailers. If Amazon’s cutthroat pricing reels in shoppers initially, Prime keeps them hooked.
不管怎樣，Prime已經成爲亞馬遜招攬顧客的一個重要工具，助推亞馬遜成爲電商領域的一哥，也讓它成爲所有零售商的頭號威脅。如果說亞馬遜最初是靠着極具殺傷力的價格吸引了大批消費者，那麼Prime就是那條將他們牢牢套住的繩索。It’s also a strategy that has cost Amazon billions of dollars. On its own, fast shipping is a costly proposition, but factor in all those extras, and Prime quickly becomes a money pit.
然而這個戰略也讓亞馬遜損失了幾十億美元。快遞本身就是一項高成本的業務，再將所有這些附加服務計算在內，Prime很快就成了一個永遠也填不滿的錢坑。The sales pitch for shoppers to join the program is compelling. Everyone from shopaholics to families who need to regularly stock up on clothes, books and gadgets can do so without worrying about how much all those orders cost to ship.
Prime服務的營銷說辭令消費者難以抗拒。不管是天生購物狂，還是需要經常網購衣服、書籍和其他用具的普通家庭，在加入Prime後，他們就可以盡情網購，完全不必擔心快遞費用的問題。Amazon, in turn, gets loyal return customers. It also gets a more predictable and steady stream of revenue by selling those memberships much like Costco, the warehouse retailer.
反過來，這也讓亞馬遜贏得了一批忠實的回頭客。另外，通過像好市多超市一樣收取年費，它也獲得了一筆具有可預測性和穩定性的現金流。“We really wanted to make it easy for customers — the idea of, ‘make the decision once, and then for the year, you don’t have to think about it,” says Greg Greeley, Amazon Prime’s vice president and one of the executives who attended that meeting in Bezos’ boathouse alongside Jeff Wilke, then senior vice president of customer service, and Chief Financial Officer Tom Szkutak.
亞馬遜Prime服務的副總裁格雷格o格里利表示：“我們想把它做得便於顧客使用——也就是顧客只要一次做出選擇，然後整整一年就不必再爲快遞而費神。”格里列和時任客戶服務部高級副總裁傑夫o維爾克、財務總監湯姆o斯庫塔克都參加了當年的“船屋會議”。Before Prime, most packages took a week or more to get from door-to-door. Anyone who wanted their orders quickly would have to pay FedEx or UPS big bucks or just have to wait. In some cases, that meant customers would end up visiting a local Wal-Mart or Target instead.
在Prime服務推出之前，大多數快遞包裹可能要一週以上才能送到。如果想讓你的包裹早點送到，就得多花點錢寄聯邦快遞或UPS，否則只能耐心等候。這意味着很多不願等太久的顧客最終會放棄網購，轉而光顧當地的沃爾瑪超市或塔吉特百貨。At the time, Amazon wasn’t exactly the big bruiser in e-commerce that it is now. Yes, it was big. But it still faced stiff competition from brick and mortar retailers. Executives also worried intensely about eBay. Although its auction business was already in decline, eBay had proven Amazon’s fiercest competition since the late 1990s, when Amazon began branching out beyond books into sales of music, electronics and toys.
那時的亞馬遜還並未成長爲電商業的巨擎。沒錯，它的規模當時已經足夠龐大，但它仍然面臨着實體零售商的巨大競爭壓力。亞馬遜的高管也非常擔心來自於eBay的競爭。雖然eBay的競拍業務已經開始萎縮，但是從90年代末，也就是亞馬遜從書籍進軍音樂、電器和玩具等領域時開始，eBay就一直是亞馬遜最大的競爭對手。With Prime, Amazon did what it does best — it expanded quickly and aggressively. Over the last 10 years, the number of available items through Prime grew from 1 million to 20 million. Prime also pushed into international markets: first to Japan, the UK and Germany, then France, Italy and Canada.
推出Prime服務後，亞馬遜可謂如虎添翼，它開始急劇擴張，勢不可擋。過去10年間，可通過Prime訂購的商品從100萬種增長到了2000萬種。Prime還積極進軍國際市場，先是登陸日本、英國和德國，然後又挺進法國、意大利和加拿大。In 2011, Amazon added a Netflix-like video streaming service to the Prime package. Instant Video, as it was called then, rolled out with 5,000 movies and TV episodes, just a fraction of Netflix’s catalog at the time. It was a move that surprised some pundits, who said it seemed like too much of a detour.
2011年，亞馬遜又爲Prime添加了一項類似於奈飛（Netflix）的視頻流媒體服務項目，命名爲Instant Video。和這項服務一同推出的，還有5000部電影和電視劇集，當時這個規模只及得上奈飛的一個零頭。此舉令一些權威人士感到吃驚，認爲亞馬遜是在走彎路。But Amazon’s Greeley argues that shipping and video streaming make sense together. If Prime members liked what they saw on Instant Video, they might buy digital movies and television shows à la carte, and in turn, remain loyal shoppers, further fueling Amazon’s bottom line.
不過亞馬遜的格里利認爲，快遞與視頻流媒體服務並不衝突。如果Prime會員喜歡Instant Video提供的內容，他們可能就會按需購買數字電影和電視劇，反過來也有利於維持用戶忠誠度，從而進一步促進亞馬遜的業績。That’s exactly what happened, according to Greeley. From 2011 to 2014, the number of Prime’s subscribers soared, which Amazon largely attributes to the allure of video streaming.
格里利表示，事情的發展正如同他們所料。從2011年到2014年，Prime的用戶訂閱數不斷飆升，亞馬遜認爲，這主要歸功於流媒體視頻服務的吸引力。Instant Video now has a catalog of 40,000-plus TV shows and movies from licensing deals with distributors such as Viacom and HBO. It also has a library from LoveFilm, a European DVD and movie streaming business that Amazon scooped up for nearly $317 million in 2008.
現在，通過與維亞康姆和HBO等發行商合作，Instant Video已經擁有4萬多部電影和電視劇。它還有歐洲DVD與流媒體公司LoveFilm提供的片庫資源，亞馬遜於2008年以近3.17億美元的價格將其收購。Hoping to make Prime Instant Video more compelling, Amazon began developing its own shows. In late 2010, it formed Amazon Studios, a Hollywood production arm that produces series and films from scripts submitted by the public through its website. Studios has produced just three pilots from that pipeline. Its biggest hits have been more standard Hollywood fare. The dark family comedy Transparent, with Arrested Development actor Jeffrey Tambor as a transgender parent, received two Golden Globe awards this year for best TV series and best actor.
爲了讓Prime Instant Video更有吸引力，亞馬遜甚至還開始自制電視劇。2010年年末成立的亞馬遜工作室致力於把公衆通過亞馬遜網站提交的劇本改編成影視劇。通過該渠道，亞馬遜工作室已經制作了三部試播劇。其中最成功的是黑色家庭喜劇《透明家庭》，由《發展受阻》的男演員傑弗裏o塔伯扮演一位變性父親。該劇在今年榮獲兩項金球獎（最佳電視劇和最佳男演員）。Amazon would not say how many Prime members use its video streaming service. But according to a report from Sandvine, a company that makes networking equipment for Internet providers, Prime Instant Video remains a distant second to Netflix but continues to grow. From March 2013 to September 2014, its share of Internet traffic in North America during peak hours of 7 p.m. to 11 p.m more than doubled from 1.27% to 2.6%. That still pales in comparison to Netflix, which accounted for over one-third of web traffic during the same period.
亞馬遜不願透露有多少Prime會員使用了它的流媒體視頻服務。但根據網絡設備公司Sandvine發佈的一份報告，Prime Instant Video的市場份額還遠遠趕不上流媒體視頻霸主奈飛公司，不過它一直在成長。從2013年3月到2014年9月，它在北美高峯時段（晚7點到11點）的網絡流量份額翻倍，從1.27%上漲到了2.6%。這與奈飛相比仍然相形見絀，後者同一時段的網絡流量份額達到了三分之一以上。“I think we could have moved more quickly to provide even better TV shows and movies,” admits Michael Paull, a former Sony Music executive who now leads Amazon’s digital video efforts.
索尼音樂前高管、現任亞馬遜數字視頻業務負責人的邁克爾o波爾也承認：“我認爲，我們本來可以行動得更快，製作出更好的電視劇和電影。”Which is why Amazon funneled $1.3 billion into Prime Instant Video in 2014. In January, the company followed up by saying it would produce 12 movies this year and signed Woody Allen to direct his first TV series exclusively for Prime Instant Video in 2016.
有鑑於此，亞馬遜在2014年向Prime Instant Video投資13億美元。今年1月，亞馬遜聲稱今年將開拍12部電影，另外亞馬遜已經簽下了伍迪o艾倫，這位電影界的傳奇人物將執導他的第一部電視劇，該劇將於2016年在Prime Instant Video上獨家播放。Amazon sweetened the pot for Prime users in other areas, too. Members get access to a digital library of over 600,000 e-books for no additional cost, unlimited photo storage and a music streaming service that rivals the Swedish startup Spotify. In November, Amazon released its first original album on the service, a 43-track digital compilation of holiday songs.
亞馬遜還在其它方面給Prime的用戶提供了優惠，比如會員可以免費閱讀60多萬冊電子書，可以享受無限的照片存儲空間，還可以享受一項堪比瑞典Spotify公司水準的音樂流服務。去年11月，亞馬遜還在Prime上推出了它的首張原創唱片——一張由43首假日歌曲組成的合集。In another new twist for Prime, Amazon introduced a line of household products in December. For now, the options are limited to just baby wipes. A line of diapers was recently pulled from sale after customers complained about their design. The idea is to push products that people buy repeatedly and are therefore all the more attractive with free shipping.
除此以外，亞馬遜還於去年12月推出了一系列家居用品。目前用戶能夠選擇的只有嬰兒溼巾。原本亞馬遜還推出了一款紙尿褲產品，不過上架後不久，由於不少顧客吐槽它的設計，它最終又被撤了下來。亞馬遜之所以推出這些人們需要重複購買的產品，就是要讓它的免費快遞服務看起來更有吸引力。“What distinguishes Mom members is that they are amongst the most active Prime customers — they are very engaged,” said Doug Herrington, vice president of Amazon Consumables, a business group that encompasses the groceries, health & beauty, pets and baby product areas.
亞馬遜消費品業務部的副總裁道格o赫林頓指出：“‘媽媽會員’最大的特點，就是她們是最活躍的Prime用戶之一，參與度非常高。”亞馬遜的消費品業務部主要經營食品雜貨、保健美容、寵物和嬰兒用品。Because Amazon does not typically disclose data about Prime, it’s unclear how frequently shoppers use the service. But what is clear is that Prime members spend significantly more than more casual Amazon shoppers, according to RBC Capital Markets. Prime members said they spent an average of $538 annually with Amazon, far more than the $320 by non-Prime members.
由於亞馬遜一般不透露與Prime有關的數據，我們無法確切地知道用戶使用該服務的頻率究竟有多高。不過有一點是明顯的：加拿大皇家資本市場公司指出，Prime會員花在亞馬遜網站上的時間要明顯多於非Prime會員。Prime會員表示，他們在亞馬遜的年均購物花費爲538美元，遠遠高於非Prime會員的320美元。Also nearly certain: Prime costs Amazon dearly. Greeley declined to disclose specifics, but he suggested as much in an interview. “When you look back, the program was launched in 2005 at $79,” he said. “You factor in just simple inflation, transportation and fuel costs, the price would be over $100 today, in just 2005 dollars.” Translation: Prime doesn’t pay for itself.
此外，幾乎可以肯定的是，Prime也讓亞馬遜花了不少錢。格里利沒有披露任何細節，不過他在一次採訪中說過這樣一番話：“如果你回溯一下，2005年這項服務推出時，它的年費是79美元。現在算上通脹、交通和油費成本，哪怕用2005年的匯率計算，怎麼着也應該在100美元以上了。”言外之意就是Prime不賺錢。Indeed, Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru estimates that Amazon loses at least $1 billion annually on Prime-related shipping expenses. It’s a staggering cost that pushed Amazon to hike the price for Prime by $20 to $99 in April.
Forrester公司分析師蘇查裏塔o穆爾普魯預測稱，與Prime相關的遞送費用每年至少讓亞馬遜損失10億美元。正是由於這一驚人成本，迫使亞馬遜於去年4月將Prime的年費上調至99美元。“On the one hand, Prime adds to their bottom line, but it’s like a leech that sucks their blood,” says Mulpuru. “When they throw in things like lending library and streaming, it just gets more and more expensive for them.”
“另一方面，Prime對亞馬遜的業績是有貢獻的，但它也像水蛭一樣吸着亞馬遜的血。”穆爾普魯說：“電子書庫和流媒體服務等項目的注入，使Prime的成本變得越來越高。”If Amazon has been consistent in the two decades or so since Bezos founded it in his Bellevue, Wash. garage, it’s that the company is ready to accept razor-thin profit margins — or outright losses, in some cases — to fuel rapid growth. And until last year, many investors seemed perfectly happy with that strategy.
自從大約20年前，貝佐斯在華盛頓州貝爾維尤市的一間車庫裏創建亞馬遜以來，如果說這家公司有一項持續堅持的策略，那就是爲了快速增長，它願意接受極其稀薄的利潤率——或者說願意接受一些業務的持續虧損。不過一直到去年，很多投資者似乎還是非常滿意亞馬遜的戰略。But 2014 proved to be challenging for Amazon. Growth of Web Services, Amazon’s data center business, slowed for the first time since it opened in 2006. And the company’s first smartphone, the Fire Phone, quickly flopped because of its high price and a crowded market. Shortly after introducing the phone, Amazon wrote off $170 million in losses, of which nearly half came from unsold phones collecting dust somewhere. Amazon shares tumbled over 23% for the year, as a result.
但事實證明，2014年是很有挑戰的一年。亞馬遜的網絡服務和數據中心業務出現了2006年推出以來的首次放緩。此外，亞馬遜的首款智能手機Fire Phone也由於定價過高和市場過於擁擠而迅速失敗。在推出Fire Phone不久之後，亞馬遜就損失了1.7億美元，其中近半虧損來自於那些賣不出去的Fire Phone手機。造成的結果就是，亞馬遜的股價在去年大跌23%。There are also questions about just how many people pay for Prime. According to a Forrester Research survey of Prime users, about one-third of respondents reported they were currently using Prime via 30-day free trials. The findings open the door to criticism that the numbers are inflated. But Greeley dismisses any such suggestion, and says, if anything, he wished Amazon had offered free trials to shoppers sooner.
也有人質疑究竟有多少人願意爲Prime付費。Forrester Research公司針對Prime用戶的一項調查顯示，約有三分之一的受訪者表示，他們正在利用Prime服務的30天的免費試用期。基於這項研究結果，一些人批評Prime的用戶數據存在注水之嫌。不過格里利並不認可這種看法，只是表示他希望亞馬遜更早地爲購物者提供免費試用Prime的機會。“One of our learnings, giving access to our customers to a 30-day free trial and basically letting them sample the buffet before they pay for it, has been a really good way for customers to learn about Prime,” he said.
他表示：“我們瞭解到的情況是，給予用戶30天的免費試用機會，讓他們體驗Prime的全套服務，一直是讓顧客瞭解Prime的好辦法。”Competition among retailers to build customer loyalty through shipping programs is intense. For example, ShopRunner, a startup that offers two-day delivery from partner retailers like Brooks Brothers and Toys R Us, charges $8.95 a month.
除了亞馬遜，其他零售商爲了提高客戶忠誠度，也在爭先恐後地圍繞快遞業務下工夫。比如，初創公司ShopRunner已經開始爲布魯克斯兄弟和玩具反斗城等零售商合作伙伴提供2天到貨的速遞服務，月費僅爲8.95美元。Then there are services like Google Express and Postmates, which aggressively push same-day delivery. For a small fee, couriers pick up your orders from bricks and mortar stores and deliver them to your doorstep in as little as one hour. (Google Express also offers a Prime-like annual membership.)
還有一些服務，比如Google Express和Postmates，也在積極推動當日送達業務。只需要繳納一小筆費用，就會有送貨員從實體店取走你訂購的貨物，送到你的家門口，從下單到收貨最快只需要一個小時。（Google Express也提供類似於Prime的年會員服務。）Amazon has responded by adding same-day shipping to Prime. For an additional fee, members can request same-day shipping in 12 U.S. markets and one-hour delivery in New York City (more cities are planned later this year). And if Bezos is to be believed, orders could one day arrive even sooner — 30 minutes or less — via drone if they clear regulatory hurdles. Good luck with that.
亞馬遜的迴應方式，是爲Prime也添加同日送達服務。只需要多繳納一些費用，會員就可以在美國的12個城市收到當日遞送的快遞，在紐約市甚至可以享受到“一小時取貨”（更多的城市將於今年納入規劃）。假如貝佐斯所言不虛，未來的快遞可能還要不了一天——如果亞馬遜的無人機計劃掃清了監管障礙，從你下單到取貨或許將用不了30分鐘。希望它能實現吧。Greeley dismissed concerns over Prime’s profitability and Amazon’s fluctuating stock price. Believe it or not, he says he’s more focused on satisfying customers with unique Prime offerings like the digital series Transparent and adding features to services, including the unlimited photo storage service, Prime Photo. And like Bezos, he’s looking for ways to make the shipping speedier.
格里利也不太在意外界對Prime的盈利能力和亞馬遜股價波動問題的擔憂。他說比起這些問題，他更關注如何通過獨特的Prime周邊產品和服務（如電視劇《透明家庭》、無限存儲空間的圖片存儲服務Prime Photo等）來滿足顧客的需求。和貝佐斯一樣，格里利也在尋找讓快遞變得更快的方法。Of course, such investments — the original content, the shipping experiments, the foray into Amazon-branded goods — means Prime won’t become profitable any time soon. But it is growing: in Amazon’s most recent earnings report, Bezos said the number of paying Prime members spiked 53% last year.
當然，如此大手筆的投資（原創內容、快遞體驗、亞馬遜自有品牌商品等）意味着Prime短期內將不可能盈利。但它的收益的確在增長：在亞馬遜公司最近的收益報告上，貝佐斯稱Prime的付費會員人數去年增長了53%。In explaining, Greeley refers back to the letter Bezos wrote to shareholders in prelude to Amazon’s initial public offering in 1997. In it, Bezos said he would work on building long-term shareholder value through big bets and innovation.
爲了解釋這些投資，格里利提到了貝佐斯在1997年亞馬遜IPO前寫給股東的信。貝佐斯在信中稱，他將通過“巨大的賭注”和創新來打造長期的股東價值。“The beauty of Amazon’s strategy is it hasn’t changed,” Greeley. “The strategy around Prime hasn’t changed. We’re constantly innovating on behalf of our customers.” Indeed, it’s a strategy Greeley maintains will “bring long-term shareholder value.”
格里利表示：“亞馬遜的戰略之美並沒變，圍繞Prime的戰略也沒變。爲了顧客，我們一直都在創新。”的確，正如格里利所說，它是一個“能爲股東帶來長期價值”的戰略。Some shareholders might grumble otherwise, but Bezos himself couldn’t have said it better.
有些股東可能會有些牢騷，但貝佐斯已經說得再明確不過了。（財富中文網）
