FT社評 美國對烏立場並未退讓

John Kerry, US secretary of state, has long enjoyed a reputation for being an indefatigable diplomat, engaging in shuttle diplomacy over the Iranian nuclear programme and the Middle East peace process. But few of his initiatives have prompted as much surprise as his recent visit to President Vladimir Putin in the Russian resort of Sochi.

長期以來美國國務卿約翰•克里(John Kerry)一直作爲一個不知疲倦的外交官而聞名，在伊朗核問題和中東和平進程中進行穿梭外交。但他很少有哪次行動像他最近的一次訪問那樣令人驚訝——他來到了俄羅斯度假勝地索契與俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)會面。

Coming at a Moment of acute tension in east-west relations over the Kremlin’s aggression in Ukraine, the four hours of meetings between the two have been criticised by some in the US as a sign that the White House is buckling. This would be the wrong judgment to make. The US should maintain its robust stance over Mr Putin’s attempts to destabilise Ukraine, but that should not stop Washington trying to engage directly with him if it can.

克里的到訪正值東西關係因俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而極度緊張的時刻，雙方持續4個小時的會晤遭到美國國內一些人的批評，稱這是白宮正在讓步的跡象。這樣的判斷是錯誤的。美國應該對普京破壞烏克蘭穩定的企圖保持強硬立場，但這並不意味着華盛頓方面應該停止在可能的情況下與普京進行直接接觸。

Eighteen months after the Ukraine crisis erupted, the west must remain on guard over Mr Putin’s intentions towards his neighbour. Although a ceasefire between the Kiev government and Russian-backed rebels was signed in Minsk in February, the guns in eastern Ukraine can still be heard in places. Victoria Nuland, US assistant secretary of state, said last week that Russian forces continue to violate the ceasefire “on a daily basis”. The political elements of the Minsk agreement, including the requirement that Kiev should decentralise powers to the rebel-held regions, and that Russia and its proxies return control of the international border to Ukraine, are yet to be implemented. But the current lull in fighting has created an opportunity for diplomatic dialogue that the US should exploit.

烏克蘭危機爆發18個月以後，西方應該繼續防範普京對鄰國的意圖。儘管基輔政府和俄羅斯支持的反叛分子2月在明斯克簽署了停火協議，烏克蘭東部還有一些地方可以聽見槍聲。美國助理國務卿維多利亞•努蘭德(Victoria Nuland)上週表示，俄羅斯軍隊依舊“每天”違反停火協議。明斯克協議的政治要素還沒有得到實施，包括基輔向反叛軍佔領地區下放權力，以及俄羅斯和其代理人將國際邊界的控制權返還給烏克蘭。但目前戰鬥暫時平息，爲外交對話創造了一個機會，而美國應該加以利用。

One reason why Mr Kerry was right to meet the Kremlin leader is that American contact with Mr Putin is limited, yet he is the only person whose voice counts inside the Russian government. Much of US-Russia diplomacy over Ukraine has involved Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister. While he is a seasoned diplomat, he appears to have little political weight. If the Obama administration wants to deliver tough messages to Mr Putin it needs to meet the paramount decision maker.

克里與普京會面的舉動是正確的，理由之一就是美國與普京的接觸有限，而普京又是俄羅斯政府中唯一一個說話有分量的人。在烏克蘭問題上，大部分美俄外交都會涉及俄羅斯外長謝爾蓋•拉夫羅夫(Sergei Lavrov)。儘管拉夫羅夫是一名老練的外交官，但他似乎沒有什麼政治影響力。如果奧巴馬政府想要將強硬的信息傳達給普京，就需要與這位最高決策者會面。

Deeper engagement with Russia is worth pursuing if it integrates the US better into the western diplomatic effort on Ukraine. German chancellor Angela Merkel, and France’s François Hollande, have been the main interlocutors with Mr Putin.

如果與俄羅斯進行更深層接觸能夠讓美國更好地參與西方在烏克蘭事務上的外交努力，那這樣做就是值得的。德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)和法國總統弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(Francois Hollande)是與普京進行對話的主要人物。

The US, though more hawkish than the Europeans, has largely subcontracted the diplomatic heavy lifting. But Mr Putin is unlikely to be prepared to engage in talks on a final settlement of the Ukraine crisis unless President Barack Obama is part of the conversation. Grave as it is, the crisis should not stop Washington and Moscow from keeping lines open on other issues. Co-operation over a deal on the Iranian nuclear programme remains firm. But the renewed possibility that the Assad regime in Syria might fall must be addressed by both powers. Russia is fiercely loyal to its ally in Damascus but the US would be justified in pressing Mr Putin harder on what he wants to see happen if the Assads are toppled by Islamist militants.

美國儘管比歐洲更爲鷹派，卻基本上把外交重任委託他人。然而，除非美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)成爲對話的一分子，普京不可能準備好參與烏克蘭危機最終解決方案的談判。儘管這場危機非常嚴峻，華盛頓和莫斯科也不應因此斷絕雙方在其他問題上的溝通渠道。雙方就伊朗核計劃達成協議的合作依然堅定。但敘利亞阿薩德(Assad)政權傾覆的新的可能性必須要靠美俄兩國來應對。俄羅斯對其在大馬士革的盟友非常忠誠，但如果阿薩德政府被伊斯蘭激進武裝分子推翻，美國就普京想看到的情景向他施加更大壓力將是正當的。

Mr Kerry’s meeting with Mr Putin was portrayed by Russian state media as a climbdown. But deeper engagement does not imply a change in policy. The US and EU should remain in lockstep and maintain economic sanctions on Moscow until the Minsk agreement is fully implemented. Any renewed aggression by the Kremlin should meet a firm response through even tougher western sanctions. Still, given the dangerous state of east-west relations, the principal decision makers ought to communicate more with each other. Talking does not mean surrender.

克里與普京的會面被俄羅斯官方媒體形容爲美國的退讓。但更深層接觸並不意味着政策的改變。美國和歐盟(EU)應該保持同步，繼續對俄羅斯進行經濟制裁直至明斯克協議得到完全實施。西方對克里姆林宮任何新的侵略舉動都應通過更強硬的制裁予以堅定迴應。不過，考慮到東西關係的危險現狀，主要決策者應該更多相互溝通。對話不等於投降。