難民危機考驗歐洲價值觀 Europe will fail the values test on refugees

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is right that the current refugee crisis is forcing Europe to consider whether it can live up to its own, self-proclaimed values. Unfortunately, the answer is likely to be “No”.

德國總理安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)說得沒錯，目前的難民危機正迫使歐洲考慮能否踐行自己所標榜的價值觀。遺憾的是，答案很可能是“不能”。

For almost 500 years, European nations dominated, colonised and populated the rest of the world. After 1945, the states of western Europe signed up to a new post-imperial and post-fascist set of values, based on universal human rights and enshrined in documents such as the 1951 UN Convention on refugees.

近500年以來，歐洲國家稱霸世界其他地區、進行殖民，並將人口輸往世界各地。1945年後，西歐國家達成了一套新的后帝國主義及後法西斯主義的價值觀。這些價值觀基於普世的人權，並被寫入1951年版的聯合國《關於難民地位的公約》等文件中。

But the desperate and dispossessed of the world were largely kept at a distance, while Europeans continued to enjoy some of the highest living standards in the world. Faced with distressing images of famines or wars in the “third world”, Europeans could salve their consciences by making a donation to charity or attending a benefit concert.

但是，世界上的絕望和流離失所基本上都發生在距歐洲很遠的地方，而歐洲人則繼續享受着可謂全世界最高的生活水平。面對“第三世界”令人悲傷的關於饑荒或戰爭的圖片時，歐洲人可以通過向慈善組織捐款或參加慈善音樂會來慰藉自己的良心。

Now the refugee crisis is asking Europeans to live up to their values in ways that are likely to be costly, inconvenient and that will accelerate far-reaching social changes. It would be heartwarming to believe that the crowds that turned out to welcome Syrian refugees arriving at Munich station show that Europe will respect its commitments in full. It would also be dangerously naive.

眼下難民危機正在要求歐洲人以很可能代價高昂、造成不便、並將加速深遠社會變革的方式，去踐行自己的價值觀。大批人羣專程歡迎抵達慕尼黑火車站的敘利亞難民，認爲這表明歐洲將完全遵守自己承諾的想法或許暖人心房。但這也天真得危險。

There are already signs that even the German government is having second thoughts about the numbers involved. The Germans may be able to shame and bully their European partners into sharing the refugee burden, through a system of quotas. But the numbers literally do not add up.

已有跡象表明，德國政府甚至也在重新考慮相關的數字。德國人或許可以羞辱或威嚇歐洲夥伴，迫使後者通過一個配額體系共同承擔難民負擔。但數字加起來確實不夠。

The European Commission, has proposed that the EU should take 160,000 refugees. This marks a considerable increase on the 40,000 the commission proposed last July. But there are already 4m Syrian refugees living outside their country. Germany alone expects to get 800,000 asylum applications, from Syria and elsewhere, this year.

歐盟委員會(European Commission)提議，歐盟應該接收16萬難民。與去年7月歐盟委員會提出的4萬人的數字相比，這標誌着相當可觀的增加。但是目前已有400萬敘利亞難民背井離鄉。僅德國今年預計就將收到80萬份來自敘利亞及其他地區的庇護申請。

The perception that Germany has now decided to accept all Syrians — combined with the hope of further changes in EU policy — seems likely to persuade more of the millions of refugees stuck in camps in Turkey or the Middle East to attempt the dangerous journey to Europe. Nor are the Syrians the only desperate group. There are also, collectively, hundreds of thousands of Eritreans, Afghans and Iraqis on the move.

認爲德國已決定接收所有的敘利亞人、歐盟政策也有望進一步改變的想法，似乎很可能會鼓動困在土耳其或中東難民營的數百萬難民中的更多人去嘗試前往歐洲的危險旅程。敘利亞人並非唯一不顧一切的羣體，還有總計數十萬的厄立特里亞人、阿富汗人以及伊拉克人處於遷移之中。

At some point, the desperation and hopes of the refugees are likely to collide with the fears and resentments of European voters. The eastern European members of the EU have made their unhappiness with refugee quotas very clear. Recent opinion polls also show that a majority of French people oppose any softening of asylum rules, and a British majority back the Cameron government’s determination not to accept EU-mandated quotas.

在某個時刻，難民的絕望和希望很可能會與歐洲選民的恐懼和不滿發生衝突。歐盟中的東歐成員國已經非常明確地表示了其對難民配額的不滿。最近的民調也表明，法國大多數人反對放鬆庇護規則，而多數英國人則支持卡梅倫當局不接受歐盟強制配額的決心。

These reactions should not come as a surprise, Europe’s fear of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers is replicated in both Australia and the US — rich, largely white countries that were once offshoots of European civilisation. In Australia, the government of Tony Abbott won power after promising to “stop the boats” of would-be refugees, heading for Australian shores. Mr Abbott’s policies have been condemned by the UN and human-rights groups — but seem popular in Australia itself.

人們不應該對此感到意外，歐洲對非法移民及尋求庇護者的恐懼同樣出現在澳大利亞和美國——這兩個曾爲歐洲文明分支、富有且以白人爲主的國家。在澳大利亞，託尼縠伯特(Tony Abbott)當局在承諾“阻止”開往澳大利亞海岸的載有準難民的船隻後當選。艾伯特的政策受到了聯合國和人權組織的譴責——但是在澳大利亞本國似乎很受歡迎。

In the US, the remarkable emergence of Donald Trump as a serious candidate for the Republican presidential nomination is driven, in large part, by his ability to play on fears of illegal immigration. Experts dismiss Mr Trump’s plan to deport 11m illegal immigrants and to build a giant wall along the Mexican border as impractical and immoral. But the Trump surge has pushed other Republicans to take similar positions.

在美國，唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)作爲共和黨總統候選人提名熱門人選的異軍突起，在很大程度上得益於其利用人們對非法移民的恐懼的能力。特朗普提出了驅逐1100萬非法移民並要沿墨西哥邊界修建巨型隔離牆的計劃，專家們斥之爲不切實際且不道德。但特朗普的崛起迫使其他共和黨人也採取類似的立場。

Thomas Edsall, a shrewd analyst of race and politics in the US, argues that in his use of immigration “Donald Trump is part of a movement gaining momentum among whites across the northern hemisphere”, including Europe. As Mr Edsall points out, a lot of this is to do with race. Some 50.5m Americans are now Hispanic and many white Americans clearly feel threatened by that. White fears get an extra edge in Europe, where Muslim immigration plays on concerns about terrorism and social cohesion.

精於分析美國種族和政治問題的托馬斯埃茲爾(Thomas Edsall)認爲，在利用移民問題上，“唐納德礠朗普是在北半球（包括歐洲）白人之間勢頭越來越大的一場運動的一部分”。正如埃茲爾所指出，這在很大程度上與種族相關。如今，約有5050萬美國人爲西班牙裔，而很多美國白人顯然感受到了這帶來的威脅。在歐洲，白人又多了一個恐懼的理由，因爲穆斯林移民帶來了對恐怖主義和社會凝聚力的擔憂。

Mr Trump will probably never become president and Europe’s far-right and anti-immigration parties will probably fail to win power in a big country. But their arguments have already changed politics and the current migrant crisis will play into their hands.

特朗普或許永遠不會成爲總統，而歐洲的極右翼及反移民的政黨或許也不會在任何一個大國上臺執政。但是他們的主張已經改變了歐洲政治，而當前的移民危機將給他們可乘之機。

International law suggests that Europe must offer asylum to every genuine refugee who reaches the EU. Political reality suggests that the numbers involved will be too large to sustain domestic support for such a policy. At that point, European politicians will try to wriggle out of their commitments — probably by trying to prevent refugees from reaching the EU in the first place. The harsh deterrents adopted by Hungary and Australia — currently the subject of widespread condemnation — may come to seem more normal.

根據國際法的規定，歐洲必須爲每一位抵達歐盟的真正難民提供庇護。但政治現實是，所涉及的難民數量太大，以至於很難維持國內對該項政策的支持。在這一點上，歐洲的政治人士將設法逃避自己的承諾——很可能會盡力在一開始就阻止難民抵達歐盟。匈牙利和澳大利亞採取的嚴厲阻遏措施（目前遭到了普遍譴責）可能會變得更加常見。

If Europe’s politicians move down that path, they will be accused — rightly — of failing to live up to “European values”. But, in reality, they face a clash of values. Ms Merkel has said the Europe has a moral and legal obligation to accept genuine refugees. But politicians operating in a democracy also have a moral and legal obligation to respect the wishes of their voters.

如果歐洲的政治人士沿着這條路走下去，他們會受到未能實踐“歐洲價值觀”的指責——這種指責是恰當的。但是，在現實中，他們面臨着價值觀的衝突。默克爾說，歐洲有道德和法律義務接納真正的難民。但是，在民主國家從政的政治人士也有道德和法律義務尊重自己選民的意願。