新加坡平民主義政策向何處去 Singapore ponders populist future after PAP victory

After being returned to power with its most emphatic general election victory since 2001, Singapore’s ruling People’s Action party must now determine how far it pushes ahead with its populist policies in the face of a slowing economy.

在獲得自2001年以來最大選舉勝利、再度掌握政權之後，新加坡執政黨人民行動黨(PAP)如今必須決定，在經濟放緩的情況下，他們還要在多大程度上繼續執行平民主義政策。

Having pocketed 83 of the 89 parliamentary seats and seen its vote share bounce back from a historic low of 60 per cent in 2011 to nearly 70 per cent, the PAP will now govern the Southeast Asian city-state for the next five years.

在把89個議會席位中的83個收入囊中、實現選票率從2011年60%的歷史低點反彈至近70%之後，人民行動黨將在未來五年裏繼續掌管這個東南亞城市國家。

Learning from its 2011 poll punishment, a chastened PAP spent the next four years attempting to address voters’ hot-button issues: reducing the number of incoming immigrants, handing cash to the elderly, constructing more homes to burst a potential house price bubble and improving creaking transport infrastructure.

從2011年選票率下降中吸取教訓之後，歷經磨難的人民行動黨在接下來的4年裏努力解決選民的熱點問題：降低外來移民數量，向老年人發放現金，建造更多房屋以刺破潛在的房價泡沫，並且改善勉強運轉的交通基礎設施。

Speaking about its populist policies after Friday’s emphatic victory, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the party, which has ruled Singapore for more than 50 years, would “redouble these efforts — but we must do this in a way that maintains the unique strengths of our system”.

在週五大勝之後談到其平民主義政策時，李顯龍表示，人民行動黨將“加倍努力解決這些問題——但我們必須同時保持我們制度的獨特優勢”。人民行動黨已在新加坡執政50多年了。

Michael Barr, associate professor of international relations at Flinders University in Adelaide, warned: “The danger is that the PAP will think that it has done all it needs to do and slip back into its old habits. It needs to maintain its political astuteness.”

澳大利亞阿德萊德的弗林德斯大學國際研究學院(the school of international studies at Flinders University)的副教授邁克爾巴爾(Michael Barr)警告稱：“危險在於，人民行動黨認爲自己已做了所有需要做的，然後回到舊有習慣去。該黨需要保持自己的政治智慧。”

Such a balancing act comes as the city-state’s economic growth contracted in the second quarter of 2015, seeing an annualised drop of 4 per cent compared with the previous three-month period.

人民行動黨採取這種平衡性舉動之際，這個城市國家的經濟增長率在2015年第二季度變成負值，較前三個月相比經濟規模降低了4%（年化率）。

DBS Bank, Singapore’s biggest lender, recently forecast 2015 economic growth of just 1.8 per cent, undershooting the government’s estimate of 2-2.5 per cent, which itself was cut from 2-4 per cent.

新加坡最大銀行星展銀行(DBS Bank)不久前預測，該國經濟增長率僅爲1.8%，低於2%至2.5%的政府估計值。而此前政府的估計值更高，爲2%至4%。

The economic slowdown has been exacerbated by curbs to the country’s influx of immigrants, which comprises one-third of Singapore’s 5.5m population and has long fuelled the tropical island’s growth.

新加坡對移民進入的限制，加劇了該國的經濟放緩。在550萬總人口中佔到三分之一的移民，長期以來一直推動着這個熱帶島國的經濟增長。

Wai Ho Leong, a Singapore-based economist at Barclays, said this would probably mean more focus on issues relating to the constraints on growth — “namely, the affordability of healthcare, a more optimal foreign-local labour force mix, the efficiency of public transportation and the quality of life for the ‘sandwiched’ middle income group”.

巴克萊(Barclays)駐新加坡經濟學家樑偉豪(Leong Wai Ho)表示，這可能意味着，有關增長制約因素的問題會受到更多關注。這些因素“是指醫療服務的負擔能力、更加優化的外籍-本國勞動力數量對比結構，高效的公共交通系統，以及‘夾在中間的’中產階層的生活質量”。

Although local and multinational businesses have expressed discontent with the island’s tightening labour market, a return to the relatively open-tap immigration policies would probably spark anger among Singaporeans, who fret about the issue.

儘管本國和跨國企業對該島日益趨緊的勞動力市場表示出不滿，但重回相對自由的移民政策很可能將引發新加坡人的憤怒。新加坡人對移民問題頗爲擔心。

“With their ballots, Singaporean voters are signalling that the PAP must govern with empathy and less haughtiness, and not lose the common-man touch,” said Eugene Tan, a political analyst and associate professor of law at the Singapore Management University.

“由於手中握有選票，新加坡選民正在發出信號：人民行動黨在治理國家時必須表現出同情心，減少傲慢情緒，不要喪失與普通民衆的接觸，”新加坡管理大學(Singapore Management University)政治分析人士、副教授陳慶文(Eugene Tan)表示。