爲何決定與韓國和解的會是安倍

Shinzo Abe has a reputation for being a nationalist and a hawk. Yet in striking a deal with South Korea over wartime “comfort women”, the Japanese prime minister has made the most significant atonement for his country’s past conduct since 1995, when Tomiichi Murayama — the dovish Social Democrat who then held that office — apologised for Japan’s aggression during the second world war.

安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)以民族主義和鷹派立場著稱。然而，通過與韓國就戰時“慰安婦”問題達成協議，這位日本首相卻完成了自1995年以來爲日本過去行爲所做的最重要贖罪。1995年時，當時的日本首相、鴿派的社會黨人村山富市(Tomiichi Murayama)爲日本在二戰期間的侵略行爲進行了道歉。

As part of this week’s agreement, Tokyo apologised for forcing Korean women to serve as sex slaves for imperial troops. It pledged $8.3m for surviving victims; as many in South Korea had demanded, the funds will come from official rather than private sources. Both sides called the agreement “final and irrevocable”, raising hopes that two of Asia’s most important economies can finally overcome a longstanding impediment to constructive relations between them.

作爲本週達成的協議的一部分，東京方面爲強迫韓國婦女充當日本帝國軍隊性奴進行了道歉。日本政府承諾出資830萬美元援助依然健在的受害者；正如很多韓國人曾經要求的那樣，這筆資金將來自官方、而非民間渠道。日韓雙方均稱這份協議是“最終和不可撤銷的”，這讓人們不禁期待，亞洲兩個最重要經濟體終於能夠克服長期以來阻止雙方建立建設性關係的一道障礙。

Both South Korea and Japan have showed courage, pragmatism and the willingness to risk a domestic backlash. The benefits of this rapprochement should not be underestimated, at a moment when east Asia confronts both opportunity and peril.

韓國和日本均表現出了勇氣、務實作風以及冒國內反對的風險達成協議的意願。在東亞既面臨機遇又面臨危險之際，人們不應低估日韓修好帶來的好處。

One of the more astonishing features of the deal is that it comes on Mr Abe’s watch. Here is a leader who has outraged neighbours with plans to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution. In his rightwing screed, Towards a Beautiful Country, he has brazenly displayed his nationalist stripes. He has also flirted with historical revisionism. In 2007, during a previous stint as prime minister, he went so far as to say that there was no evidence that the “comfort women” had in fact been forced into prostitution.

更令人驚訝的一點是，該協議是在安倍掌權期間達成的。這是一位因企圖修訂日本和平憲法而激怒鄰國的領導人。在其冗長的右翼作品《致美麗的國家》(Towards a Beautiful Country)中，安倍公然向人們展示了他的民族主義色彩。他還與歷史修正主義有着曖昧關係。2007年，在上次擔任日本首相期間，他甚至表示沒有證據表明“慰安婦”事實上是被強迫賣淫的。

Yet it is because of his hawkish credentials that Mr Abe has been able to begin the crucial work of pulling Seoul closer to Tokyo. Rightwingers make up an important chunk of his Liberal Democratic party’s support base. Perhaps, alone among Japanese politicians, the prime minister has the street credibility to quell their anger and persuade them that, in the end, he has their interests at heart.

不過，正是因爲擁有身爲鷹派的種種“憑證”，安倍才能夠啓動拉攏韓國的關鍵工作。右翼是他領導的自民黨(LDP)的支持陣營的重要組成部分。這位日本首相擁有的街頭號召力，可以平息右翼的怒火併讓他們相信他內心深處記得他們的利益，他的這種號召力在日本政界或許是絕無僅有的。

Mr Abe has been able to press the same advantage in other areas, too. He has achieved the remarkable feat of bringing Japan into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major trade pact involving 12 Pacific Rim nations, taming his own camp’s vested interests along the way. The deal is good for Japan’s economic prospects, but potentially painful for the coddled farming sector, a pillar of LDP support. Using a combination of clout and sweeteners, Mr Abe has hacked through resistance to change in a way that the Democratic party — which was last in power between 2009 and 2012 — has never managed.

安倍還能將這種優勢運用在其他領域。他實現了令人矚目的成就，讓日本加入了涉及12個環太平洋國家的重要貿易協定《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement，簡稱TPP），並在這個過程中馴服了他所在陣營內的既得利益。該協定有利於日本的經濟前景，但可能會不利於受到呵護的農業部門，後者是自民黨的重要擁躉。通過恩威並施，安倍突破了阻力，實現了變革，而這是民主黨（上一次執政是在2009年至2012年）一直未能做到的。

Mr Abe is no closet liberal. Left to his own devices, he might very well be tempted to careen into the rigid nationalism where his instincts lie. Yet instead he has surrounded himself with clear-sighted realists, notably chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga, whose official role as government spokesman belies his outsize influence. And Mr Abe himself should be given much credit for the positive economic and diplomatic steps Japan has taken. Faced with the choice between the romantic nationalism close to his heart, and the recognition that only bold economic and diplomatic measures can restore his country to prosperity, Mr Abe appears to have listened to his head and chosen the latter.

安倍並不是一個祕密的自由派。如果他由着自己的心意，他很可能會忍不住倒向頑固的民族主義，因爲那纔是他內心深處所推崇的。儘管如此，他卻挑選了一些精明的現實主義者作爲自己的副手，特別是內閣官房長官菅義偉(Yoshihide Suga)——雖然他的官方身份只是政府發言人，但他的影響力其實要大得多。就日本已經採取的積極的經濟和外交舉措而言，很大一部分功勞應記在安倍本人頭上。他內心推崇的是浪漫的民族主義，但他同時也認識到只有大膽的經濟和外交舉措才能使日本恢復繁榮。在要在這二者當中作選擇時，安倍似乎理智地選擇了後者。

Next he should turn his attention to Beijing, and see whether a similar approach can generate a virtuous circle of trust and co-operation to replace the acrimony of the past seven decades.

接下來他應把注意力轉向北京方面，看看類似的做法是否可以在日中兩國間建立起信任與合作的良性循環，來取代過去70年兩國間的惡語相向。

There have been hopeful moments before. In 1972, Kakuei Tanaka, the Japanese premier, and Zhou Enlai, his Chinese counterpart, enjoyed a meeting of minds and especially of personalities, which led to the normalisation of diplomatic ties between the two Asian giants. Watching the grainy footage of their handshake, one senses something more at stake than the realpolitik of Asian rivalry. These are two old codgers moved by friendship and mutual achievement. They are beyond faking it.

以前曾有過充滿希望的時刻。1972年，當時的日本首相田中角榮(Kakuei Tanaka)和中國總理周恩來愉快地舉行了一次會晤，展現出了雙方的思想，尤其是人格魅力。這促成了兩個亞洲巨人之間外交關係的正常化。觀看田中與周恩來握手的模糊影像畫面，人們可以感受到某種比亞洲競爭的現實政治更重要的東西。這是兩位被友誼和相互成全打動的老人。他們的姿態不是裝出來的。

There was a glimmer of that in the handshake in Seoul between South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye and Japanese foreign minister Fumio Kishida to mark this week’s agreement. I have watched it over and over; it does not look choreographed, but entirely sincere.

在首爾，當韓國總統朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)與日本外相岸田文雄(Fumio Kishida)爲慶祝本週達成的協議而握手時，人們也能隱約感受到類似的東西。我看了一遍又一遍；這一幕看起來不像是精心設計的，而是完全發自內心。

Here are two politicians, coming from vastly different historical perspectives, who are genuinely pleased at the prospect of a new beginning. They want something to happen.

歷史觀截然不同的兩位政治人士，爲一個新開端的前景而由衷地高興。他們希望能夠促成某種東西。

Yet there is a touch of shrewdness, too, in this week’s deal. It comes just as Japan goes into a mode of collective hibernation known as the shogatsu, or new year, holidays. Even the most hardened nationalist may be too busy drinking sake and munching on rice cakes to make much of a fuss about Japan extending a historic hand of friendship to Korea.

不過，在本週的協議中也能體會到一絲精心的設計。協議達成時，正值日本人進入“集體冬眠”模式，即新年假期。即便是最強硬的民族主義者或許也在忙着喝清酒、吃年糕，沒時間就日本向韓國伸出歷史性的友誼之手大做文章。