中國的風力發電廠問題難解

China’s Wind farms have long had a cloud hanging over them: not enough of their clean Energy is consumed. That seems odd; a combination of rapid urbanisation and thousands of coal-fired power stations makes for severe pollution problems, which the state is desperate to reduce. A change in government regulations should improve matters for hard-pressed renewable generators but it will not solve all their problems.

長期以來，中國的風力發電廠一直籠罩着陰雲：它們生產的清潔能源消費不足。這似乎很奇怪；快速城市化加上成千上萬的燃煤發電站，造成了嚴重的污染問題，中國政府正迫切希望減少污染。政府規定的變化應會改善壓力巨大的可再生能源發電廠的境況，但不會解決它們的全部問題。

The National Energy Administration has done its bit for pollution reduction by encouraging renewable energy, mostly wind power, through favourable tariff structures. Last year, wind accounted for about 4 per cent of total generation and is due to more than double by 2020.

國家能源局(National Energy Administration)已通過優惠的電價結構鼓勵可再生能源（主要是風電）發展，爲減少污染做出自己的努力。去年，風電佔全部發電量的4%左右，到2020年這個比例預計將上升逾一倍。

But the NEA faces two big challenges. One is obvious: not even the all-powerful Chinese Communist party can make the wind blow. The other is that while regional networks are required to accept power produced from wind farms, some regional grids nevertheless refuse. In the north-western provinces of Xinjiang and Gansu, almost half of the wind power offered by generators was rejected (or “curtailed”) in the first three months of this year. Wind power specialists such as China Longyuan Power and Huaneng Renewables, which have borrowed heavily to invest in construction, complained bitterly. Their shares have trailed broader market indices for years.

但國家能源局面臨兩大挑戰。第一個顯而易見：即便是全能的中國共產黨也無法讓風吹起來。另一項挑戰是，雖然地區電網被要求必須接受風電廠的供電，但一些地區的電網還是拒絕接受。在新疆和甘肅等西北省份，今年頭3個月，幾乎有一半的風力發電被拒絕（“棄風限電”）。中國龍源電力(China Longyuan Power)和華能新能源(Huaneng Renewables)等專門從事風電業務的企業叫苦連天，它們爲風電建設借入了鉅額資金。多年來，它們的股價表現一直落後於大盤指數。

After repeated warnings, the NEA this week required nine provinces with the highest curtailment rates to use an average of a fifth more wind power than last year. That matters; these areas contain at least 60 per cent of the two companies’ wind capacity. Shares in all the listed wind farms bounced sharply yesterday. Reducing curtailments should improve their earnings. And they need the cash flow — net debt levels look scary at more than 5 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, partly explaining very low valuations.

經過多次警告後，國家能源局本週要求棄風率最高的9個省份的風電使用量要比去年平均高出五分之一。這很重要；這些地區佔這兩家公司風電裝機容量的至少60%。所有上市風電公司的股價昨日大幅反彈。降低棄風率應會提高這些公司的盈利。它們也需要現金流，其淨債務水平看上去很可怕，是息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(Ebitda)的5倍多，這在一定程度上解釋了它們的估值爲何非常低。

But the curtailments occur for a reason. Coal-fired generators, too, do not run at full capacity because the economic slowdown has reduced demand for power. And exporting wind power to populous coastal regions, as Xinjiang requires, just means competing with the wind farm projects over there. China’s government cannot simply wave away its wind industry’s problems.

但棄風限電的出現是有原因的。燃煤發電廠也沒有滿負荷運轉，因爲經濟放緩減少了電力需求。像新疆要求的那樣將風電輸出到人口稠密的沿海地區，僅僅意味着要與那裏的風電項目競爭。中國政府無法輕易揮走風電行業的問題。