將恐怖組織斬首未必解決問題

The effect of taking out leading terrorists is not easy for even so-cAlled experts to predict.

即使是所謂的專家，也無法輕易預測殺死恐怖分子領導者所帶來的影響。

So it is with the death, announced by Isis, of Abu Muhammad al-Adnani.

伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國(ISIS)宣佈的阿布•穆罕默德•阿德納尼(Abu Muhammad al-Adnani)的死亡也是如此。

head of the external relations and propaganda unit of the ultra-hardline jihadist group and the man who in 2012 announced the creation of a caliphate across Syrian and Iraqi borders.

作爲這個極端強硬的聖戰組織中負責對外關係和宣傳部門的頭目，正是他在2012年宣佈跨越敘利亞和伊拉克邊境建立一個哈里發國。

He was targeted in a US air-strike on Tuesday.

上週二他成了美國的空襲目標。

As one of the founding members of Isis and a militant with its precursor, al-Qaeda in Iraq, he undoubtedly brought operational know-how to the group.

作爲ISIS前身伊拉克基地組織(al-Qaeda in Iraq)的一名武裝分子、以及ISIS創始成員之一，阿德納尼無疑給ISIS帶來了行動經驗。

Undoubtedly, too, he has played a potent role in inciting terrorism abroad, both in the west and across the Middle East — although it is less known how significant he was in the logistics behind recent atrocities.

同樣無疑的是，無論是在西方還是在中東各國，他在煽動境外恐怖主義方面發揮了強有力的作用——儘管他在近期的恐怖主義暴行的籌劃活動中扮演了多麼重大的角色較少爲人所知。

As head of the Isis propaganda machine he was gruesomely effective, his appeals for Isis followers to slay non-Muslims in the west eerily previewed the brutal simplicity of recent attacks, including last month’s mass-casualty seafront killings in Nice in by a fanatic armed with just a truck.

作爲ISIS宣傳機器的頭目，阿德納尼有效得可怕，他向ISIS追隨者發出的殺死西方非穆斯林的呼籲成爲最近一波簡單而野蠻的恐襲的詭異預告，包括上月法國尼斯(Nice)海濱一名極端分子用一輛卡車造成的大規模死傷事件。

Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him, he pronounced in 2014.

用石頭砸碎他的頭，用一把刀刺死他，用你的車碾過他，把他從高處扔下去，掐死他，或者毒死他，他在2014年宣告。

His death is surely damaging to Isis at a time when the group is under mounting pressure from US, Russian and Iranian allied forces in both Syria and Iraq, and after the loss of so many other combat leaders.

在ISIS於敘利亞和伊拉克兩地面臨來自美國、俄羅斯和伊朗聯軍日益增大的壓力之時，在ISIS損失如此多其他戰場指揮官後，他的死必然會給ISIS造成打擊。

In and of itself, it is unlikely to prove decisive.

但這件事本身不太可能被證明具有決定性意義。

Al-Qaeda itself has no doubt been weakened by the US killing of Osama bin-Laden in 2011.

美國2011年殺死奧薩馬•本拉登(Osama bin Laden)無疑削弱了基地組織。

But al-Qaeda’s offshoots and affiliates have proved more deadly since bin-Laden’s death, if less able to mount the kind of mass-casualty spectaculars that gave their founding leader his notoriety.

但在本拉登死後，事實證明基地組織的分支和附屬變得更加致命，儘管他們不具備令創始人本拉登臭名昭著的造成大規模傷亡的能力。