對中美“百日談判”結果拭目以待

For Chinese officials, Xi Jinping’s first face-to-face encounter with Donald Trump in Florida was a success, principally because it was not a disaster.

對中國官員來說，習近平與唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在佛羅里達州海湖莊園(Mar-a-Lago)的首次會面是成功的——主要是因爲這沒變成一場災難。

From the perspective of China’s risk-averse Communist rulers, the summit was always going to be a high-risk gambit. But with an increasing realisation in both Washington and Beijing that the current imbalances in their trade and investment relationship are not sustainable, meeting Mr Trump on his home turf was a risk Mr Xi had to take. The alternative was a possible all-out trade war between the world’s two largest economies just as the Chinese president prepares for a second five-year term with a revamped leadership team. During such “selection years”, economic and social stability is the paramount concern for the ruling Chinese Communist party.

從厭惡風險的中共領導者角度來看，舉行峯會始終是一個高風險的策略。但隨着華盛頓和北京雙方都日益認識到，兩國間貿易和投資關係當前的失衡是不可持續的，於是，到特朗普的地盤與之會面就成了習近平不得不冒的風險。如若不然，全球兩大經濟體之間可能爆發全面貿易戰爭，而此時正值這位中國領導人改組領導班子迎接第二個五年任期——值此換屆之際，經濟和社會穩定是執政黨中共的首要關切事項。

Like so many other capitals around the world, including Washington, Beijing wants to know if Mr Trump is crazy like a fox — or just crazy. Either way, it is an academic distinction. Whether the US president ultimately upends the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship by accident or by design, the damage will be done.

像全球許多國家的政府——包括華盛頓——一樣，北京方面也想知道特朗普到底是瘋狂加老謀深算，還是隻是單純的瘋狂而已。不管怎樣，這只是理論上的差別。無論這位美國總統最終是出於無意還是有意顛覆了世界上最重要的雙邊關係，都將造成傷害。

Mr Xi saw his meeting with Mr Trump as a critical opportunity to argue the case for stability in Sino-US relations. The Chinese government’s worst fears, however, seemed to be coming true almost as soon as the meeting at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort was confirmed.

在習近平看來，與特朗普會晤將提供一個關鍵契機，他可藉此力陳中美關係有必要保持穩定。但看起來中國政府最大的擔憂幾乎在確定此次海湖莊園會晤時就已成真。

On March 31, a Chinese vice-foreign minister was scheduled to brief foreign reporters about his government’s expectations for a positive and constructive meeting between the two presidents.

3月31日，中國副外長鄭澤光按計劃要舉辦外國記者吹風會，簡要介紹中國政府期待兩國領導人進行一場積極的、有建設性的會面。

But just hours before Zheng Zeguang did so, Mr Trump tweeted his prediction for a “very difficult” encounter with Mr Xi over “massive trade deficits and job losses”. Mr Zheng then spent a good part of his briefing parrying questions about the US president’s tweet.

但就在吹風會召開的幾個小時前，特朗普在Twitter上表示由於“大規模貿易逆差和就業流失”，他預計與習近平的會面將“非常艱難”。鄭澤光在隨後的媒體通報中大部分時間都用來回避有關美國總統這條帖子的提問。

Officials in Beijing scrambled to contact trusted American intermediaries. According to people familiar with the calls, the message was “please ask your president to stop tweeting” about the meeting. “How seriously should we take his tweets?” one bewildered Chinese diplomat asked the Financial Times. “He’s not like any other leader we have ever dealt with.”

中國官員趕忙紛紛聯繫可靠的美國中間人。據瞭解這些電話的知情人士表示，電話內容都是“請讓你們的總統別再發佈關於此次會面的Twitter帖子。”一位中國外交官困惑地向英國《金融時報》問道：“我們該以多認真的態度來看待他這些帖子？他跟我們打過交道的所有領導人都不像。”

In the end, @realDonaldTrump went easy on his Chinese counterpart. During Mr Xi’s two days at Mar-a-Lago, he merely tweeted a video showing his granddaughter charming the Chinese president with her Mandarin language skills. It initially appeared that young Arabella Kushner’s performance might be the highlight of a summit otherwise overshadowed by the US missile attack on Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

最終，@realDonaldTrump（特朗普的Twitter賬號）給中國領導人留了情面。在習近平到訪海湖莊園的兩天期間，特朗普只在Twitter上發佈了一段視頻，展示其外孫女用自己的漢語普通話語言能力吸引住了中國國家主席。最初看起來，年幼的阿拉貝拉?庫什納(Arabella Kushner)的表現可能成爲峯會的亮點，但美國對敘利亞巴沙爾?阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)政權發動的導彈攻擊卻爲峯會蒙上了陰影。

Mr Xi and Mr Trump did not take questions from the press. They did not even release a bland communiqué for the world to parse. But it emerged that the two sides’ had agreed to a rushed 100-day negotiation over some of their thorniest trade and investment disputes.

習近平與特朗普都未接受記者提問，他們甚至連一份供世界剖析的平淡無奇的公報都未發佈。但接着就傳出消息，雙方已經同意就部分最棘手的貿易和投資爭議開展100天的倉促談判。

It is in this particular arena that the alpha male drama that began in Florida will ultimately play out.

一場在佛羅里達州拉開帷幕、由男性政治強人主演的大戲最終將在這個特定的舞臺上演到終場。

Mr Trump’s Treasury secretary, commerce secretary and incoming trade representative have a unique opportunity to narrow the $347bn trade deficit in goods with its biggest trading partner, while also pressing for increased market access in China for US service sector companies.

特朗普的財政部長、商務部長以及即將上任的貿易代表面對一個獨特機遇，有望縮小美國與最大貿易夥伴之間3470億美元的貨物貿易逆差，同時爲美國服務業企業爭取擴大在華市場準入。

Those companies have a substantial surplus in their trade with the world’s second-largest economy and would enjoy an even bigger one if they could operate as freely in China as Chinese companies do in the US.

此類企業在服務貿易方面對世界第二大經濟體存在巨大順差，如果它們在中國的經營能夠像中國企業在美國那樣自由，它們還將獲得更大的順差。

If Mr Xi is prepared to pay a high price for stability in Sino-US affairs, says one multinational executive who is keenly awaiting the outcome of the 100-day talks, the lesson will be that pressing China can work. The world will soon find out whether there is indeed a method in Mr Trump’s apparent madness.

一位正在急切等待百日談判結果的跨國公司高管表示，如果習近平準備好爲中美關係穩定付出高昂代價，那便說明對中國施壓可以奏效。世界很快將看清，特朗普在瘋狂表象下是否的確存有理性。