谷歌CEO談探月項目 找一個"零起步百萬美元"研究課題

For years, Google CEO Larry Page had dreamed about a tantalizing possibility: using balloons, rather than satellites, for communications.

多年來，谷歌公司（Google）首席執行官拉里o佩奇一直懷揣着一個美妙的夢想，那就是用氣球代替衛星進行通訊。

There were plenty of reasons why the idea was interesting. Satellites take years to build and cost millions of dollars to build and launch. For someone used to releasing products in “beta,” and perfecting them through rapid iteration, this was a huge barrier to innovation. “You’re pretty averse in your development of these things,” Page said during a recent interview. What’s More, the cost and time involved in a launch often led to technology lock-in—if something you’ve invested millions in works, you’re going to stick with it rather than trying to perfect it and risk a setback.

這個想法很有意思，原因是多方面的。製造併發射一顆衛星需要幾年時間，還要耗費數百萬美元資金。對習慣於發佈“測試版”產品並通過快速迭代來予以完善的人來說，這是一個巨大的創新障礙。佩奇最近接受採訪時說：“在開發這些東西時會遇到相當大的牴觸。”此外，爲推出新產品而投入的成本和時間經常會產生技術鎖定效應——如果你爲某項工作投入了幾百萬美元，你就會堅持使用其中的技術，而不會冒着受挫的風險來設法完善它。

Balloons offered an alternative. What if you could launch a balloon, test it, bring it down, learn something, and repeat, all in the course of a day? Then, you could go back and do it all over the next day. “It’s a natural question to ask,” Page said.

氣球提供了另一種通訊方式。假如能在一天內完成放出氣球、測試、回收、吸取經驗教訓、然後再來一遍的過程，會怎麼樣呢？而且，第二天還可以追溯、重複這個過程。佩奇說：“人們自然會問這樣的問題。”

It was also a crazy enough idea that no one was working on it. To Page, that was a classic “zero million dollar” research problem. “You find no one working on it,” he said. “And you know that zero million dollars are going into that problem.”

同時，這個想法很瘋狂，還沒有人付諸實施。對佩奇來說，這是一個經典的“零起步百萬美元”研究課題。他指出：“你會發現沒有人開展這項工作，你也知道還沒有人爲此投入資金。”

Many of Google’s moonshots—self driving cars, high-altitude wind turbines, and most recently ingestible nano-particles for early detection of cancer—started as zero million dollar problems. And as no one was working on them, Google was able to attract some of the top people in field, which Page says gives the company a huge advantage.

谷歌許多“探月計劃”都從這些起步爲零的百萬美元課題開始，比如無人駕駛汽車和高海拔風力發電機，以及最近用於檢測早期癌症的可服用納米技術微粒。同時，由於還沒有人從事這些研究，谷歌得以把這些領域的一些頂尖人才招至麾下。佩奇說這給谷歌帶來了巨大的優勢。

But not every crazy idea is worth pursuing. So how do you sort the crazy-but-possible ideas from the plain crazy ones? Page said Google takes a methodical and gradual approach.

但並非每個瘋狂的想法都值得實施。那麼，如何區分那些瘋狂但有可能的想法與純粹的狂想呢？佩奇表示，谷歌採用一個系統性的漸進方式。

A big question with balloons was whether they could stay up long enough—weeks or months on end—on a regular basis to be useful for communications. Ballooning experts believed it was impossible.

通訊氣球的一大問題是懸浮時間是否足夠長。要用於通訊的話，通常情況下氣球需在空中停留幾個星期，甚至幾個月。氣球專家認爲這絕不可能。

Page took to Google, of course, to search and search and search. “Eventually I found this balloon image from 1960 that had gone around the Earth like five times,” he said. “If somebody in 1960 can do that, we can do that. We have better materials.”

當然，佩奇在谷歌上進行了反反覆覆的搜索：“最終我找到了這幅1960年的氣球圖片，它曾繞着地球飛行了大概五次。如果1960年的人能做到這一點，我們也能做到。我們有更好的材料。”

Today, Project Loon, which the company’s moonshot lab, Google X, unveiled last year, is testing a fleet of balloons that are routinely staying up in the air for 100 days at a time. They’ve covered more than 3 million kilometers, or about 2 million miles. In tests with telecommunications companies in Australia, New Zealand and Chile, they’re delivering speeds of 10 megabits per second to rural areas.

如今，Project Loon正在對一批氣球進行測試——谷歌的“探月”實驗室Google X去年披露了這個項目。測試氣球通常每次都能在空中停留100天，其累計漂浮的距離已超過300萬公里。與澳大利亞、新西蘭和智利電信公司聯合開展的測試表明，這些氣球能爲農村地區提供10MB/秒的通訊帶寬。

Page’s idea is no longer a zero million dollar problem. Google has invested millions in the projects, hired top scientists and conducted hundreds of tests in different environments. But at the genesis of this, and several other moonshots, there were some key ingredients: Page’s natural curiosity and his impulse for self-directed learning, which he traces to his education in a Montessori school.

佩奇的想法再已不再是零起步百萬美元課題。谷歌已經爲這些項目投入了數百萬美元，聘請了頂尖科研人員，並在不同環境下進行了幾百次測試。究其根源，這些“探月”項目源於兩個關鍵因素：佩奇天生的好奇心和他進行自主學習的衝勁。佩奇說這種衝勁源於自己在蒙特梭利學校（Montessori school）接受的教育。

“How do you play detective a little bit and then how do you convert that into things that can transform how a billion people can get their connectivity,” he said. “That’s the exciting part.”

他說：“如何稍稍進行一些探究，然後如何把結果轉化成可以改變10億人通訊方式的產品，這是最激動人心的部分。”

Exciting. And fairly straightforward—at least if you’re the world’s most ambitious CEO. “You see some evidence that it’s possible and you try to figure things out,” Page said. “And you say, well, maybe that’s the question we should be asking.”

激動人心。這樣的說法很是直截了當——至少對世界上最有膽識的首席執行官來說是這樣。佩奇表示：“當你看到一些證明某件事可行的證據時，你就得盡力把事情弄清楚。你會說，也許這就是我們該問的問題。”