朝鮮挑釁促使日本警醒

According to one foreign intelligence agency, neighbours in Lausanne, where the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un spent his high school days, remember him as “brutal and suspicious”. The boy is now 33, but he has not settled down. South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy reports that in the five years since assuming office, he has executed 340 people.

據某個外國情報機構透露，朝鮮領導人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)當年在洛桑的鄰居記得，他是個“殘忍多疑之人”。那時金正恩在洛桑讀中學。當年的男孩如今33歲了，但他仍不消停。韓國國家安全戰略研究所(INSS)稱，在上臺以來的5年裏，金正恩已處決了340人。

Mr Kim’s behaviour reminds me of something I was told when visiting an area of Rio de Janeiro close to the slums. I was warned to beware of groups of small children who hold up tourists with knives or even guns. They are particularly dangerous because they do not understand the consequences of using their weapons.

金正恩的所做作爲，讓我聯想起訪問里約日內盧一個鄰近貧民窟的地段時被告知的事情。我得到的警告是，要提防那些兒童團夥，他們會拿刀子甚至槍支搶劫遊客。他們特別危險，因爲他們不理解使用那些武器有什麼後果。

Alliances matter especially when dealing with an unpredictable adversary. Japan is protected by an alliance with the US. For an alliance like this to work, it must be seen as indivisible to one’s adversaries.

在對付一個不可預測的對手時，結盟尤爲重要。日本得到日美同盟的保護。要想讓這樣的同盟發揮作用，必須讓對手看到，同盟關係是牢不可破的。

In the 1980s, US president Ronald Reagan stood by fellow Nato members in western Europe against the Soviet Union, which threatened to decouple the US and Europe with its intermediate-range SS20 nuclear missiles in Warsaw Pact countries. And he stood firm with his Japanese ally in 1987, forcing the Soviets to reMove all the SS20s deployed east of the Ural Mountains and targeted at Japan.

1980年代，美國總統羅納德?里根(Ronald Reagan)堅定支持西歐的北約(Nato)成員國對抗蘇聯。當時，蘇聯在《華沙條約》(Warsaw Pact)成員國部署SS-20中程核導彈，企圖以此分化美歐同盟。1987年，里根堅定地站在盟友日本一邊，迫使蘇聯撤走了所有部署在烏拉爾山脈以東、瞄準日本的SS-20導彈。

Unfortunately, the US has not always been such an exemplary ally. When President Bill Clinton visited China in 1998, he announced with some fanfare his success in getting China to agree to stop targeting missiles at the US. But he forgot about the Chinese weapons aimed at Japan.

遺憾的是，美國並非總是這樣的盟友典範。1998年，時任美國總統比爾?克林頓(Bill Clinton)訪問中國時，大張旗鼓地宣佈已成功說服中國不再把導彈瞄準美國。但他忘記了中國瞄準日本的武器。

Today, the situation is changing once again. In the recent US-Japan joint statement, President Donald Trump committed to “defend Japan through the full range of US military capabilities, both nuclear and conventional”. The statement was mainly directed at North Korea, but conveyed a strong message to China as well. The early concerns that Japanese people harboured about Mr Trump’s isolationist outlook have since receded somewhat.

如今，局勢再次發生變化。在不久前的美日聯合聲明中，美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)致力於“使用包括常規武器和核武器在內的美國全部軍事實力保衛日本”。該聲明主要針對朝鮮，但也向中國傳遞了強烈的信息。日本人民早先對於特朗普孤立主義觀念的擔憂現在已有所減輕。

What is now crucial for the alliance is to determine where the US’s “red line” with North Korea should lie. Washington is determined to prevent Mr Kim from acquiring nuclear missiles capable of reaching American soil. But if it were to draw its red line in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, that would signal that its alliance with Japan is divisible.

目前對美日同盟而言至關重要的是，確定美國對朝鮮畫出的“紅線”應該落在哪裏。華盛頓方面決心阻止金正恩獲得射程可達美國本土的核導彈。但是，如果美國把紅線劃在太平洋中央，那將發出美日同盟可以分化的信號。

In fact, all of Japan has been within range of North Korean nuclear-capable Nodong missiles since the 1990s. The “re-coupling” of Japanese and American security interests at this point is crucially important. For its part, Japan must act now to counter the threat from Pyongyang, although there is a limit to what it can do militarily for political and operational reasons.

事實上，自1990年代以來，日本全境都處於朝鮮可搭載核彈頭的蘆洞(Nodong)導彈的射程範圍內。在當前這個關鍵時刻，日美安全利益“重新掛鉤”是極其重要的。就日方而言，日本必須採取行動反制平壤的威脅，儘管出於政治和作戰原因，日本能採取的軍事行動是有限的。

During the presidential election campaign last year, Mr Trump said he was open to Japan and South Korea building nuclear weapons in order to reduce the burden on the US. But for obvious historical and other reasons, nuclear armament is not an option for Japan. Its only choice is to strengthen the alliance with the US. The Abe administration enacted a new set of laws to allow the Self-Defense Forces to support the American military in a meaningful way. Japanese defence policy is slowly but surely changing so as to allow Tokyo to fulfil its obligations as a US ally.

特朗普在去年競選總統期間表示，他對日本和韓國製造核武器、以減輕美國負擔持開放態度。但由於顯見的歷史與其他原因，核武器不是日本的選擇。唯一的選擇就是加強與美國的同盟關係。安倍政府推動通過了一套新的法律，允許自衛隊(Self-Defense Forces)以有意義的方式支持美軍。日本的防務政策正在緩慢但確定無疑地發生改變，使日本能夠履行作爲美國盟友的義務。

In the past, Japanese governments had to spend more effort on justifying the activities of the SDF with reference to the country’s highly restrictive constitution than on actually expanding the country’s defence capability. Comfortably ensconced inside the alliance with the US, Japan has increased its defence budget by only 3 per cent in the past 15 years. China, meanwhile, has increased its military spending by 540 per cent.

過去，跟真正擴大防務能力的工作相比，日本政府不得不花更多努力來證明自衛隊行動的合法性，因爲日本的和平憲法有很多限制。在日美同盟的保護傘下舒適生存的日本，國防預算在過去15年期間僅僅增加了3%。同期中國的軍費支出增加了540%。

However, recent provocations by North Korea have served as a wake-up call for the Japanese. All the more so in a world now entering a more unstable era of great power contestation.

然而，近來朝鮮的挑釁成了喚醒日本人的警鐘。在世界進入更不穩定的大國角力時代之際，這一事態尤其令人警醒。

Japan is now at a historic turning point as it re-examines defence policy in response to very real threats. The number of escort ships deployed by the Maritime Defence Force — which has fallen by 24 per cent over the past 20 years — must be increased. Regardless of likely opposition from China, Japan must upgrade its missile defences with the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system. Cyber warfare capability must also be drastically improved.

日本正處在一個歷史性轉折點，它正在針對非常真切的威脅重新審視防務政策。日本海上自衛隊(Maritime Defence Force)部署的護衛艦數量——在過去20年裏減少24%——必須增加。儘管可能遭到中國的反對，但日本必須用末段高空區域防禦系統（THAAD，中文簡稱:薩德）來提升導彈防禦能力。日本還必須大幅提高網絡戰能力。