諾基亞仍然水深火熱

Two years ago, Stephen Elop likened Nokia to a burning oil platform, referring to the intense competition from Apple's iPhone and Google's Android operating system. There is little in the Finnish handset maker's full-year earnings to suggest the CEO has since located the fire extinguisher.

兩年前，埃洛普(Stephen Elop)將諾基亞(Nokia)比作是正在燃燒的石油平臺，意指諾基亞面臨蘋果(Apple)iPhone和谷歌(Google)安卓(Android)操作系統的激烈競爭。而從這家芬蘭手機制造商的全年收益來看，其首席執行長埃洛普在打了那個比方之後沒能找到相應的滅火器。

One of Nokia's self-inflicted problems has been that it dumped its in-house operating system, Symbian, in favor of Microsoft's Windows Phone in February 2011, but took 10 months to get a product running on the platform, the Lumia, to market. In a slow-moving business, it might have gotten away with it. But Samsung Electronics was just powering up. Nokia's share of global smartphone volumes touched 4% in the third quarter of last year, down from 23% in the first quarter of 2011, notes Strategy Analytics. Samsung's share has almost tripled to 34%.

其實諾基亞曾幾次玩火自焚，其中一次是2011年2月放棄了內部操作系統塞班(Symbian)，改用微軟(Microsoft) Windows Phone系統，而將運行於Windows Phone的產品Lumia推向市場就花了10個月的時間。本來，若是在一個進程緩慢的行業裏，諾基亞可能會藉助Lumia僥倖取得成功。但偏偏三星電子(Samsung Electronics)那時又卯足了勁。據研究公司Strategy Analytics統計，諾基亞智能手機去年第三季度的全球市場份額爲4%，遠低於2011年第一季度的23%。三星電子智能手機的市場份額幾乎增加了兩倍，至34%。

Nokia is optimistic that Lumia sales will take off. It says that features like its camera and maps set the latest versions of the high-end smartphone launched last November apart and that wireless operators are supportive of a third ecosystem. But despite a fourth-quarter improvement in gross margins and lower operating expenses, Nokia still needs to ship double the number of phones just to break even on smartphones, estimates Barclays.

諾基亞對於Lumia銷售額將迅速增長表示樂觀。該公司說，這款去年11月發佈的高端智能手機的最新版與衆不同的是攝像頭和地圖等功能，而且無線運營商支持第三個生態系統。但巴克萊(Barclays)估計，儘管諾基亞去年第四季度的毛利增加且營業費用減少，但其智能手機業務要想達到收支平衡，諾基亞仍需將手機出貨量增加一倍。

There is also a risk of the fire spreading. Nokia's regular mobile-phone business, which accounts for more than half of group operating profit, is under pressure from cheaper upstarts based on Android. Sales fell by a fifth last year, while the average selling price of its phones dropped 11% to 31 ($41.30). Last year's results were also flattered by a turnaround at its telecom-equipment joint venture Nokia Siemens Networks. But NSN's operating-profit margins are forecast to drop back to around 3% in the first quarter, from 14.4% in the fourth quarter.

此外，這股正在燃燒的火勢還有蔓延的危險。諾基亞常規手機業務目前也感受到了那些價格更便宜的基於安卓的後起之秀帶來的壓力。諾基亞的營業利潤有超過一半來自常規手機業務。去年，諾基亞常規手機的銷量減少了五分之一，而平均售價下降了11%，至31歐元(41.30美元)。去年的業績其實還受到電信設備合資企業諾基亞西門子通信公司(Nokia Siemens Networks)扭虧爲盈的“粉飾”。但預計今年第一季度諾基亞西門子通信的營業利潤率將從去年第四季度的14.4%重新降至3%左右。

Nokia appears to be through the worst of its cash burn, but it may not be over. Net cash on its balance sheet fell by 1.2 billion to 4.4 billion last year. Nokia has proposed not to pay a dividend this year. But it also expects another 750 million in restructuring related cash outflows, the same as last year's dividend payout.

諾基亞似乎已經挺過了最燒錢的階段，但整體燒錢趨勢可能還沒結束。該公司資產負債表上的現金淨額去年減少了12億歐元，至44億歐元。諾基亞已提議今年不支付股息。但它預計在重組現金流出方面將再花費7.5億歐元，與去年股息支付額相當。

The shares have more than halved since Mr. Elop joined in September 2010, and the company now has an enterprise value equivalent to 25 times forecast 2014 operating profit, based on Barclays estimates. Investors may be overestimating Mr. Elop's fire-fighting skills.

自2010年9月埃洛普加入諾基亞以來，該公司股票已下跌了一半有餘。據巴克萊估計，基於2014年預期營業利潤計算的諾基亞預期市盈率爲25倍。投資者可能高估了埃洛普的救火能力。