戰場:蘋果和谷歌運勢大逆轉

In July 2012, the Presidential election was kicking into high gear, the Olympics were about to begin, and Most people thought it was a matter of time before shares of Apple hit $1,000.

2012年7月份，美國總統選舉步入高潮，倫敦奧運會即將開幕，而大多數人都認爲蘋果(Apple)股價漲到1,000美元只是一個時間問題。

Google (GOOG), meanwhile, was just muddling along. After doubling during 2009, its stock had been treading water around $600 a share for three and a half years. Apple (AAPL), too was trading around $600 a share, but the iPhone 5 was coming and the company Steve Jobs built seemed to have the wind at its back.

與此同時，谷歌（Google）股票可謂“虛度光陰”。在2009年股價翻倍之後，谷歌股票在隨後三年半的時間裏一直徘徊在600美元上下。去年7月份，蘋果股價也處於600美元左右，但iPhone 5即將推出，而喬布斯締造的蘋果公司似乎正一帆風順。

Oh, how things have changed since then. Apple's stock has fallen 29% since mid-July. And Google? It's gained 46%, pushing past the $800 milestone while Apple languishes near $424 a share. Apple is tussling with investors over whether to pay more dividends, while Google rallies merrily on.

哦，自那以後，情勢發生了多大的變化啊。 自去年7月中旬以來，蘋果股價已經下跌了29％。而谷歌呢？它的股價上漲了46％，突破了800美元大關，而蘋果卻趴在424美元附近。蘋果正在與投資者就是否增加派發股息的問題進行爭鬥，而谷歌股票則在歡快上漲。

There has been a lot of discussion over Apple's decline in recent months, and comparatively less about Google's corresponding rise. But the difference in between the two boils down to this: Apple is increasingly seen as coming off one of the greatest runs in the history of Silicon Valley. And Google may just be at the start of one.

近幾個月以來，人們對於蘋果股價下跌展開了許多討論，而相對而言，對於谷歌相應的上漲卻較少討論。但兩者之間的這個差異可歸結爲這點：蘋果創造了硅谷歷史上科技公司業績增長最輝煌的一個階段，但現在人們越來越傾向於認爲，這個階段已經結束，而谷歌可能正處於這樣一個階段的開始。

That is the new image of Google after two quarters of impressive earnings and more signs that the company is laying plans for long-term growth. "Looking at the consumer technology world over the next 10 to 20 years, we believe Google is far and away the best-positioned company," wrote Gene Munster, an influential tech analyst at Piper Jaffray.

這就是谷歌在連續兩個季度獲得不俗業績——而且有更多跡象表明該公司正在制定長期發展計劃——之後給人留下的新形象。“展望未來一二十年的消費科技領域，我們認爲谷歌無疑是佔據最佳優勢的公司，”投資銀行派傑（Piper Jaffray）頗具影響力的科技產業分析師吉恩?蒙斯特寫道。

Munster pointed not to search or other advertising, which still accounts for 87% of the company's revenue, but to new ventures that have yet to hit the market, like Google Glass and self-driving cars, which he called one of Google's "biggest opportunities in the next 10 years."

蒙斯特話中指的並不是搜索或其他廣告業務（這部分業務在谷歌的營收中仍佔據87％的份額），而是指那些還沒有投入市場的新開發項目，比如谷歌眼鏡和無人駕駛汽車——他稱後者爲谷歌“未來十年最大的機遇之一。”

Compare that with Apple, which is seeing its share of the smartphone and tablet market erode over time as lower-margin, lower-cost Android rivals sell more products, and as Apple responds with its own lower-margin products like the iPad Mini.

與此相比，蘋果看到自己在智能手機和平板電腦領域的市場份額正在隨着時間的推移而逐漸縮水，同時那些低利潤、低成本、採用安卓移動操作系統的競爭對手則提高了產品的銷量，而且蘋果也在推出迷你iPad等自己的低利潤產品予以反擊。

Although Apple infamously holds its cards close to its vest, it's working on its own new products -- some that could create an entirely new category like the rumored iWatch. Apple is also taking time to create a new TV device. Such new products could offer Apple new areas of growth -- the iWatch alone could produce $6 billion in revenue -- and beef up the company's profit margins to levels that would impress investors again.

雖然蘋果素來以守口如瓶著稱，但我們知道，它正在開發自己的幾款新產品——有些可能會形成一個全新的產品類別，比如傳聞中的智能手錶iWatch。此外，蘋果還在投入時間開發一款新的電視產品。這樣的新產品可爲蘋果提供新的增長領域——僅iWatch就可產生60億美元的營收，而且可把該公司的利潤率提升到再次給投資者留下深刻印象的水平。

For now, however, sentiment is against Apple and strongly in favor of Google. This week, more analysts have joined the Google $1,000 club, citing other factors that could propel the stock higher in the coming year. Jeffries & Co. argued that a four-digit price is possible, given improvements in the Motorola handset business and non-search areas such as YouTube and commerce initiatives. Perhaps more encouraging, clickthrough rates on mobile ads are rising, Jeffries analyst Brian Pitz wrote.

然而，目前投資者並不看好蘋果，相反卻強烈看好谷歌。上週，更多的分析師認爲谷歌股價將會上漲至1,000美元，他們認爲其他一些因素可能會在未來幾年內推高谷歌股價。投資銀行傑富瑞公司（Jeffries & Co.）認爲，考慮到摩托羅拉手機業務的業績改善、YouTube等非搜索領域以及電子商務計劃，谷歌股價可能會上漲至四位數。或許更令人鼓舞的消息是，移動廣告的點擊率正在持續攀升，傑富瑞公司(Jefferies)分析師布萊恩?皮茲如是寫道。

How deserved is this reversal of fortune between Apple and Google's stocks? Perhaps not as much as the stock charts might suggest. For much of the three years when Google was trading around $600 a share, it was subject to speculation that, first, it couldn't thrive in the era of Facebook (FB), and then later uncertainty around the new CEO Larry Page. The effectiveness of Page's bold steps are only now becoming apparent to investors.

蘋果和谷歌股票之間的這種運勢逆轉有多少合理的成分呢？實際情況或許並不是股票走勢圖可能展現出來的模樣。過去三年穀歌股票徘徊於600美元附近的大部分時間裏，人們一直存在如下的猜測：首先，谷歌無法在以Facebook爲代表的社會化媒體時代實現繁榮發展，之後人們對谷歌聯合創始人拉里?佩奇出任首席執行官的表現沒有把握。對於投資者而言，佩奇實施的一系列大膽舉措直到現在才顯現出其預期效果。

Apple, meanwhile, was riding a multi-year wave of bullishness and strong earnings growth that was driven by the iPhone and iPad. Those two products took years to conceive, design, and execute into the products we know. One thing that is certain about Apple -- it's not sitting quietly counting its pile of cash. It's trying to design new category-defining products. The real question is whether those products will resonate with consumers the way the iPad has.

與此同時，蘋果已被投資者持續看漲多年，而且在iPhone和iPad的推動下，它的盈利增長表現強勁。這兩款產品經過了多年的構思、設計以及執行，才形成我們如今所知道的產品。對於蘋果，我們可以確定一件事，那就是它不會靜靜地坐在那裏，數着自己積累起來的鉅額現金。這家公司正在設法設計自創類別的新產品。真正的問題在於，這些產品是否會像iPad那樣，得到消費者的認可和共鳴。

In other words, there are real, fundamental changes going on at both of these companies, but the effects of those changes are greatly enhanced in the stock performance. Just as Google was underappreciated two years ago, so Apple could be today. Just as Apple was revered with blind bullishness then, so Google is at risk of being overvalued if it does reach $1,000 too quickly.

換句話說，這兩家公司都正在發生着一些實實在在的根本性變化，但這些變化的影響正在各自的股票表現中被顯著放大。正如兩年前谷歌失寵那樣，蘋果今天可能也是如此。正如那時那些盲目樂觀的投資者極力推崇蘋果那樣，如果谷歌股價過快上漲到1,000美元的話，它現在就面臨着股票估值偏高的風險。

That doesn't mean Google is doomed or that Apple is set to rebound quickly. Both of these companies are going to have, at different times, their fallow periods as well as their blowout earnings reports. Both are going to keep working on projects that will offer growth for investors with a long-term focus.

並不是說谷歌在劫難逃，也不是說蘋果股價馬上就會反彈。這兩家公司都將在不同的時候經歷無所作爲的低谷時期以及盈利報告大幅超預期的高潮時期。這兩家公司都將注重於長期發展策略，繼續開發爲投資者提供增長前景的項目。

But for now, consider that Google is trading at 18 times its expected earnings this year, double the ratio for Apple. That shouldn't surprise anyone, but it also suggests that the recent reversal of fortunes making financial headlines today are priced into both of these tech giants. What is much less certain is where they will both be in a year or so from now.

但現在，考慮到谷歌目前股價已達到其今年每股預期收益的18倍，是蘋果的兩倍。這個數字不應該有任何人會感到意外，但它同時也表明，這兩家公司最近成爲財經頭版新聞的運勢逆轉已反映在這兩家科技巨頭的股價上。現在難以確定的是，一年左右的時間之後，這兩隻股票各自又會處於什麼價位。