瞅準時機: eBay小步快跑殺回中國

John Donahoe may have rescued eBay from decline, but the e-commerce company has yet to convince some corners of Wall Street it can sustain its rapid growth.

約翰?多納霍似乎已將eBay從頹勢中挽救了回來，但這家電商公司還得向華爾街證明，它能維持快速增長的態勢。

In its first-quarter financials out this week, eBay (EBAY) slightly beat earnings estimates, with net income up 19% year over year to $677 million on revenues of $3.7 billion, led by PayPal's continued rise and the recent turnaround of Marketplaces, which includes the eBay website. But a lower-than-expected second-quarter outlook -- between $3.8 billion and $3.9 billion in sales vs. analysts' consensus of $3.95 billion -- paired with PayPal's slowest growth period in some time, did not sit well with investors. The news sent eBay shares down 2% in after-hours trading.

它的增長主要是由貝寶（PayPal）的持續增長及市場復甦帶來的，其中就包括了eBay自己的網站人氣回升。但是第二財季低於預期的業績展望——銷售收入在38億美元到39億美元之間，而分析師一致預期該收入爲39.5億美元——加之貝寶的業務不時停滯不前，讓投資者頗爲不安。消息傳來，eBay股價在收盤後交易中下挫了2%。

The results have left some analysts wondering: with the turnaround in its rear-view mirror, how can eBay keep up the pace?

這個結果讓一些分析師不免心生疑竇：眼看着市場迎來轉機，eBay怎麼才能保持增速呢？

At the company's Investor and Analyst Day last month, eBay CEO Donahoe and other executives outlined their goals for the next three years. The company projected revenues as high as $23.5 billion come 2015 -- vs. last year's $14.1 billion in sales -- tied to $300 billion in global commerce from eBay's Marketplaces, PayPal, and GSI Commerce, the last of which builds and manages online shopping sites for big retailers. Just as ambitious? Donahoe wants to double eBay's user base to 200 million-plus by 2015.

eBay上個月舉行投資者與分析師通氣會（Investor and Analyst Day）時，公司首席執行官多納霍和其他高管一起闡述了未來三年的目標。公司預計，2015年收入將高達235億美元——而去年銷售收入僅爲141億美元。這個預測的基礎是eBay市場、貝寶和GSI Commerce全球3,000億美元的商務價值。其中GSI Commerce是專爲大型零售商創建和管理網購平臺的。這個目標算是雄心勃勃嗎？實際上多納霍還計劃，到2015年實現eBay用戶翻一番，達到2億人以上。

To achieve such lofty goals, eBay is focusing on boosting its customer experience. Marketplaces, for instance, will be rolling out features in the coming months and years that will amplify users' relationships with the retailer and use mobile devices in new ways. At Investor Day, eBay put together an impressive demo of a mobile feature dubbed Neighborhoods. Far from finished, Neighborhoods will be a comprehensive mapping feature that aggregates available items from all participating stores -- large and small -- in your neighborhood (e.g. New York City's West Village). Items will be displayed onscreen and can be purchased with a few finger taps, then shipped home, possibly via same-day delivery, or picked up in-store.

爲了實現這些宏偉目標，eBay正致力於提升用戶體驗。比如，eBay市場就將在未來數月和數年中推出各種新功能，加強用戶與零售商的關係，並用全新的方式運用移動設備。通氣會當天，eBay推出了一項名爲“社區”（Neighborhoods）的移動應用功能演示，令人印象深刻。目前這項功能還遠未開發完成，未來它將是一個包羅萬象的地圖功能，能把用戶所在社區（比如紐約的西村）所有加盟店——不管規模大小——的所有在售商品都集中起來。這些商品將在移動設備上展示出來，只需點擊幾下就能購買，隨後就能快遞到家，還可能實現當天快遞送達！或者也可去實體店自提。

Although PayPal remains the fastest-growing eBay segment, its 18% growth last quarter falls short of any quarter last year, indicating that the payments business could be feeling the squeeze from competitors like Square and Intuit, both of which are also developing online, offline, and mobile payment solutions. This likely explains why the company is aggressively pushing into brick-and-mortar locations. PayPal announced a deal late last year that will allow shoppers to pay using their PayPal accounts at any one of the 7 million-plus brick-and-mortar stores that take Discover (DFS), for instance.

儘管貝寶仍是eBay增長最快的業務板塊，但它上季度18%的增速已低於去年任一季度。它表明，支付業務可能正受到競爭對手如移動支付技術公司Square和Intuit的挑戰。這兩家公司也都在開發線上線下及移動支付解決方案。這或許能解釋，爲什麼eBay眼下正在大舉進軍實體店。去年年末，貝寶宣佈達成了一項交易，可讓購物者在其700多萬家可使用Discover購物卡的合作實體店用貝寶賬戶付款。

EBay has its eye on additional international expansion. Indeed, 61% of Marketplaces revenues already come from outside the U.S. In China, where American online retailers are often rebuffed, eBay announced eBay Style, a partnership with luxury online retailer that allows Chinese shoppers to buy items from abroad. Meanwhile, handles domestic tasks like shipping and customer service, helping eBay gain a foothold in the region. "When we did that, we knew it was a small step back into the market," Wendy Jones, eBay VP of geographic expansion and cross border trade, told Fortune earlier this year. But she suggested the partnership with could be done with other Chinese companies to widen local distribution.

eBay還着眼於在國際市場進一步擴張。實際上，它61%的市場收入已來自美國以外的市場。儘管美國電商在中國屢遭挫敗，但eBay卻宣佈成立了“eBay Style”。這是一家與奢侈品電商合作的公司，中國消費者可通過它購買海外商品。與此同時，還負責中國國內的發貨及客戶服務等業務，幫助易趣在中國市場獲得了一席之地。今年年初，eBay負責區域擴張和跨境貿易的副總裁溫迪?瓊斯向《財富》雜誌（Fortune）表示：“我們從一開始這麼做的時候就明白，這只是爲重返中國市場邁開的一小步”。她還暗示，也可和其他中國企業開展類似與的合作，以拓展中國本地分銷渠道。

EBay also has big plans for eBay Now, the iPhone app that offers one-hour shipping of items from partners like Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD) in three cities. The service will eventually find its way into Marketplaces, and Donahoe told Fortune recently he hopes the service will be ubiquitous, whether a customer lives in a big urban sprawl or small suburban town. Such an expansion would call for partnerships with third-party shipping and transportation systems. "I've had newspaper companies come to me and say, we have all these trucks. We deliver these newspapers, and these trucks don't get used after 8 a.m. in the morning ... Can we help deliver?" Donahoe recently told Fortune, who pointed out that newspaper trucks are in every city in America.

Bay還爲eBay Now制定了宏偉規劃。eBay Now是一個iPhone上的應用，它能在三個城市爲用戶提供一項特別服務，在一小時內送到來自eBay合作伙伴如塔吉特（Target）和家得寶（Home Depot）的商品。eBay市場最終也會提供這項服務。此外，多納霍近期還向《財富》雜誌表示，他希望這項服務能不分遠近，不管客戶是住在大城市還是小城鎮，都能享受到它。要實現這一大舉擴張，就需要和第三方物流運輸體系開展合作。多納霍說：“已經有報社來找我了，它們表示自己有卡車。這些車平時用來送報，早上8點以後就閒置不用了。所以是否能讓它們來負責送貨呢？”他指出，實際上美國所有城市都有這樣的送報卡車。

That's a growth opportunity if ever there was one.

如果增長機遇確實存在，這絕對算一個。