中國商飛加快推進客機項目

China’s state industrial complex is accelerating efforts to launch a commercial passenger plane and challenge the global Boeing-Airbus duopoly.

中國一家國有工業聯合體正加速主推一款商用客機，挑戰國際市場的波音(Boeing)和空客(Airbus)雙頭壟斷。

Comac is developing the ARJ21, a small regional jet, and the larger single-aisle C919. Both projects, which have experienced multiple delays, will be the focus of much attention at China’s premier air show, which opens Tuesday in the southern city of Zhuhai.

中國商用飛機公司（Comac，中國商飛）正在開發小型支線客機ARJ21 和更大的單通道客機C919。這兩個都曾多次被延遲的項目，成爲週二開幕的珠海航展上引起廣泛關注的焦點。

Six years after its maiden test flight, the ARJ21 has yet to enter commercial service. Last year Comac also confirmed that the C919’s maiden flight and delivery date, originally scheduled for 2014 and 2016 respectively, would each be delayed by at least a year.

在首次飛行試驗6年之後，ARJ21仍未進入商業服務市場。去年，中國商飛也曾確認了C919 的首飛和交付日期，起初分別定於2014年和2016年，但都將推遲至少1年。

The Chinese government has huge economic interests riding on both planes – and also a Mooted wide-body variant of the C919, the C929, which may be developed in partnership with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp. In September, Boeing predicted that China would eclipse the US as the world’s largest aviation market by 2033, saying that Chinese airlines would purchase some 6,000 aircraft – mostly single-aisle planes – worth $870bn over the next two decades.

中國政府指望這兩款客機、以及提議中C919的寬體型號C929客機產生巨大的經濟利益。C929 可能會與俄羅斯的聯合飛機公司(United Aircraft Corp)聯合開發。波音在9月預測，到2033年中國將超過美國、成爲全球最大的航空市場。波音表示，未來20年，中國的航空公司將採購大約6000家飛機（主要是單通道飛機），價值達8700億美元。

From both a technical and financial perspective, industry executives say Comac is well positioned to realise its ambitions, but caution that could take years.

行業高管表示，從技術和財務角度看，中國商飛已做好實現抱負的準備，但警告稱，這可能要需要多年時間。

“I would say it’s between 10 and 20 years until Comac’s planes will be in widespread service,” says one executive who asked not to be named because he works closely with China’s state-owned aviation companies.

一位要求匿名的高管表示，“我覺得中國商飛的飛機獲得廣泛應用，將要等上10至20年。”

The challenge for Comac will be to integrate the thousands of components and systems in an aircraft certified as safe by both the Civil Aviation Administration of China and the US Federal Aviation Administration. The latter’s sign-off would ensure the ARJ-21 and C919’s acceptance in the international market.

中國商飛面臨的挑戰，將是把數百種部件和系統整合到一種飛機上，然後使其獲得中國民航總局(CAAC)和美國聯邦航空局(FAA)的安全認證。後者的認可將確保ARJ-21 和C919 被國際市場接受。

Money is less of a problem. Comac enjoys the support of a cash-rich state backer – a factor that was essential to Airbus’s emergence as Boeing’s main rival.

資金基本不成問題。中國商飛得到充足的政府機構的支持——而這一因素是空客成長爲波音的主要對手關鍵因素。

Marketing the new planes in international markets will be difficult, however, even with strong credit support from state policy banks such as China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China.

然而，即便得到中國國家開發銀行(CDB)和中國進出口銀行(China Eximbank)等國有政策性銀行的強力信貸支持，在國際市場上推銷新飛機仍非常困難。

“Selling the ARJ-21 and C919 will be tricky because when you’re buying an aeroplane you’re not just buying a piece of kit that’s going to fly around for a few years,” says a senior European aviation executive. “You’re buying into the whole support package that the manufacturer has to stand behind for the lifetime of the aircraft – and that’s a huge unknown quantity in the case of Comac.

“銷售ARJ-21 和 C919將很有難度，因爲當你買入一架飛機時，並非僅僅買入未來幾年裏飛往各地的一件工具，”一位歐洲航空業高管表示。“你是在買入由製造商提供的涵蓋飛機整個壽命週期的一攬子支持服務——你買入中國商飛的飛機時，面臨的未知因素實在太多了。”