馬克安德森 年可能發生的科技和商業大事件

No one does predictions like Mark Anderson, whose forecasts about the intersection of the economy and technology are closely followed in Silicon Valley. He has a global view of what’s the next big thing and place along an eye for hot products and countries that about to take a dive. Anderson is head of Strategic News Service, a newsletter publisher for industry leaders and venture capitalists. It claims a readership that includes Dell CEO, Michael Dell, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Recently, Mark Anderson listed his predictions for 2015 during a gathering in San Francisco. Here are his key points:

沒人能像馬克o安德森那樣精準地洞見未來。他對經濟與科技交叉領域的預言一直受到硅谷密切關注。他既能放眼全球，預判即將橫空出世的“下一個大事件”和熱點地區，又能夠洞察哪些熱門產品和國家行將過氣。由安德森領銜的“戰略新聞服務”公司（Strategic News Service），是一家專爲行業領袖和風險投資家服務的通訊出版商。該公司宣稱擁有衆多大牌讀者，比如戴爾公司首席執行官邁克爾o戴爾、特斯拉公司首席執行官埃倫o穆斯克和微軟創始人比爾o蓋茨。最近，在舊金山的一個聚會上，馬克o安德森就2015年的科技走勢發表了他的預言。主要觀點如下：

Tech predictions:

技術預言：

o Digital currencies like bitcoin will multiply and go nowhere. Currencies require the economic strength and military power of a nation to garner people’s trust.

o 像比特幣這樣的數字貨幣將層出不窮，同時也會走入絕境。貨幣總是需要一個國家的經濟實力和軍事力量作保障才能贏得人們的信任。

o Net neutrality, the idea that Internet service providers and governments should treat all data equally, will survive.

o “網絡中立性”，即互聯網服務供應商和政府應平等對待所有數據這一理念，將繼續存活。

o Pattern recognition will become the real goal of big data. A host of new tools and chips will be developed, to let people gather data and pick out trends that they would otherwise be unable to see, setting off a revolution in computing.

o 模式識別將成爲大數據的真正目標。將有大批新工具和芯片被開發出來，讓人們收集數據，識別此前無法洞察的趨勢，從而引發一場計算革命。

o Following the recent series of corporate hackings, security will become a priority on CEO agendas. Companies will reverse the downward spending trend on security as the cost of poorly protected computer systems outweigh the cost of building secure ones.

o 在多家公司近期接連遭受黑客攻擊後，網絡安全將會成爲首席執行官們關注的頭等大事。由於缺乏保護的網絡系統可能造成的損失，遠遠超過打造一個安全網絡所需的成本，各大公司將不再削減一緊再緊的安全開支，轉而加大投資。

o Virtual reality will remain the domain of entertainment. Headsets that immerse people in a 3D world will not become a feature of everyday life despite Facebook’s $2 billion acquisition of Oculus, a company that makes virtual reality headsets.

o 虛擬現實領域將仍由娛樂業主導。儘管Facebook公司斥資20億美元收購了Oculus公司，但能讓人們沉浸於3D世界的頭戴式裝備離日常生活仍遠。

o Expect Amazon to stumble. Between the brawl with publisher Hachette over e-book prices, drones, and the Amazon Fire phone’s flop, losses are heading Amazon’s way.

o 亞馬遜公司前景不妙。由於在電子書定價問題上與Hachette出版集團爭執不下，再加上前途未卜的無人機服務和遭遇慘敗的Fire手機業務，這家電商巨頭很可能遭受鉅額虧損。

o Networks for devices connected to the internet (think refrigerators that let you tweet) will get off of their launchpads but remain niche. All people really want is low energy costs, lots of TVs, and one remote. People don’t want complexity replacing reliability and dumb things talking to other dumb things.

o 聯網家電（比如一臺可以讓你發微博的冰箱）將進入市場，但依然不會成爲主流。人們真正想要的不過是低廉的能源成本，一大堆電視屏幕和一個遙控器。在許多人看來，讓一些不會說話的設備相互交流太複雜，似乎沒有傳統家電那麼可靠。

o Digital payment service Apple Pay will succeed, establishing it’s leadership in the market.

o 蘋果公司的數字支付服務Apple Pay將大獲成功，在市場上確立領導地位。

o Computer encryption will continue to expand as a major trend.

o 計算機加密將依然是主流趨勢。

o Personal health and fitness and lifestyle devices will merge, and there will be a plethora of watches and fitness bands on the market. Intelligent clothing, (think: socks that are connected to the internet and can monitor your blood flow), will stay niche due to price and inconsistency.

o 個人保健、健身和生活方式設備將會融合，市場上將會涌現大量手錶和健身腕帶。智能服裝（設想一下：和互聯網相連、能監測血流量的襪子）由於其價格和可靠性問題，仍將屬於小衆產品。

Economic predictions:

經濟展望：

o Oil prices will stay low.An increased supply of alternative energy and additional oil supplies from fracking mean oil prices will stay at $50-$60 a barrel, down by more than half from earlier this year. Trillions of dollars that were tied up in energy spending are now available for bridges, schools, and infrastructure. It’s a gift to the world.

o 油價仍將維持低位。不斷增加的新能源和水力壓裂法生產的石油意味着油價將會維持在每桶50-60美元，比今年年初下降一半多。曾被能源支出佔用的大量金錢現在可用來修建橋樑、學校和其他基礎設施。這將是送給全世界的一份厚禮。

o China has a lot to worry about.China’s economy is driven by politics rather than money. Between fudged numbers in government economic reports, pollution, and the population’s distrust of food quality, China’s population is unhappy. China’s leadership is well-educated and intelligent so they’re managing to hold everything together, so it will take years for China to crumble. When it does, the fall will be hard.

o 中國將面臨考驗。中國經濟主要是靠政治而非資本驅動。政府的經濟報告充斥着粗製濫造的數據，環境污染嚴重，人們已經不再信任食品質量。總而言之，中國人並不幸福。中國的領導人受過良好教育，非常明智。他們正在努力維持宏觀經濟的穩定，因此說中國會陷入困境還爲時尚早。不過一旦這一天來臨，那就將是一場硬着陸。

o Japan is in a sweet spot.For all the talk about how Japan is in trouble—natural disasters, aging workforce—it is, in fact, doing well. Its business model of high quality exports, a strong global presence with companies like Toyota, and relatively few imports compared to other countries mean Japan’s economy is going strong.

o 日本經濟有望迎來複蘇。儘管關於日本深陷困境的說法不絕於耳——自然災害頻發，勞動力老化等等——但它實際上狀況不錯。它依靠高品質出口商品的商業模式，豐田汽車公司這類跨國企業在全球的強勢表現，以及相對其他國家較少的進口意味着，日本經濟將會走強。

o Samsung is in trouble.Samsung’s business model is based on selling modified versions of existing inventions like the iPhone rather than inventing. With the rise of Chinese competitors like smartphone maker Xiaomi gaining market share, Samsung is in a tight spot.

o 三星公司將深陷困境。三星公司的商業模式是銷售現有發明（如iPhone）的改良產品，而不是基於自主創新產品。隨着智能手機制造商小米公司這類中國競爭對手的強勢崛起，三星的好日子可能到頭了。

o India looks pretty good.The recent visits between US and India mean tighter military relations. US is about to give it’s blessing on India’s nuclear weapons program, which has already produced nuclear weapons. This will be the basis for a tighter alliance in South Asia between India and the US that will make China nervous.

o 印度的情況看起來不錯。美國與印度領導人近期的頻頻互訪意味着兩國正在加強軍事關係。美國將對印度的核武器項目加大支持，而後者實際已生產出核武器。這將成爲印度和美國在南亞地區結成更緊密同盟關係的基礎，而這將使中國感到緊張。

o The European Union is going through a cultural clash.Germany makes most of the decisions, and the question is how will the rest of northern Europe especially Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark stand for it?

o 歐盟將經歷文化衝突。目前絕大多數決策都是德國作出的，問題是，其他北歐國家，尤其是瑞典、芬蘭、挪威和丹麥是否會支持德國？

o Australia’s not doing great.China owns a large chunk of Australia’s businesses. When Australia had the money to spare, it didn’t invest in it’s own industries and universities. Now, Australia is a natural resource based economy with a sliding dollar at a time when natural resource prices are plunging. Its biggest customer is China, and China is interested in owning Australian businesses.

o 澳大利亞狀況欠佳。中國持有澳大利亞企業的大量股權。當澳大利亞手頭有錢時，它沒有將其投資到自己的產業和大學中。現在，隨着自然資源價格不斷下跌，澳大利亞已成爲一個貨幣不斷走軟、依靠自然資源爲主的經濟體。它最大的客戶是中國，而中國的興趣在於成爲澳大利亞衆多企業的主人。