阿里巴巴蜜月期結束

When Alibaba publishes its quarterly earnings in New York today, the Chinese ecommerce group will face the clamour from a crowd of increasingly sceptical investors.

阿里巴巴(Alibaba)將於今日在紐約發佈其季度盈利財報。屆時，這家中國電子商務集團將面臨一羣日益對其持懷疑態度的投資者的公開質疑。

There is a palpable sense among analysts that Alibaba’s honeymoon — which saw the ecommerce group break records with last year’s $25bn New York listing — is over.

在分析師中間，存在一種不難察覺的想法：阿里巴巴的蜜月期結束了。在此前的蜜月期中，這家電子商務集團曾於去年在紐約以250億美元的上市規模創下記錄。

Since November, Alibaba’s share price has fallen from more than $119 to $79 earlier this week — the first time its shares have dipped below $80 since its record-breaking initial public offering in September.

自去年11月以來，阿里巴巴的股價已從每股119美元跌至本週早些時候的每股79美元。這是該集團去年9月創紀錄的IPO以來股價首次跌破80美元。

Analysts will be watching the earnings announcement for any evidence of sluggishness in revenue growth, which undershot expectations at Alibaba’s previous results statement in January. They will also be looking for clarity on government attempts to regulate ecommerce and how this will affect the company’s profits.

分析師將密切關注阿里巴巴的財報，尋找任何營收增長疲軟的證據——今年1月阿里巴巴前一份財報中的該指標就未能達到預期。此外他們還將關注的是，阿里巴巴將如何澄清政府部門對電子商務的監管、及其對阿里巴巴盈利的影響。

“There is a lot of concern about just how sustainable is the hype around Alibaba,” said Shaun Rein, head of China Market Research Group, the Shanghai-based consultancy. “The share price went out of control after the IPO but all the hedge funds we were talking to said: ‘We want to get in before anyone else does, and we want to get out before anyone else does.’ ”

上海諮詢公司中國市場研究集團(China Market Research Group)主管雷小山(Shaun Rein)表示：“許多人擔心的是，圍繞阿里巴巴的宣傳噱頭會持續多久。在IPO之後，阿里巴巴的股價已經失控。然而，與我們對話的對衝基金都表示：‘我們希望在其他人入場前入場，還希望在其他人離場前離場。’”

Alibaba will be hoping that Thursday’s earnings announcement receives a better reception than its previous one in January, which sent its stock down 10 per cent on weaker than expected revenues. But perhaps most of the damage was due to Alibaba’s dispute with the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, a Chinese regulator.

從阿里巴巴的角度來說，他們會希望投資者對週四財報的接受程度能高於1月份的前一份財報。由於營收弱於預期，今年1月的財報曾導致阿里巴巴股價下跌10%。不過，也許導致阿里巴巴股價損失的最大原因，應該是該集團與中國監管機構國家工商行政管理總局(State Administration for Industry and Commerce)之間的爭端。

In January SAIC said it had found evidence of bribery, fake listings and counterfeit goods on Taobao, Alibaba’s most popular consumer marketplace.

今年1月，國家工商局表示，該機構發現了淘寶(Taobao)網站賄賂行爲、虛假銷售清單及假冒商品的證據。淘寶是阿里巴巴旗下人氣最高的購物市場平臺。

The attention from regulators spooked some investors, said Chi Tsang, internet analyst covering Alibaba for HSBC in Hong Kong.

香港匯豐銀行(HSBC)研究阿里巴巴問題的互聯網分析師Chi Tsang表示，監管機構的關注令部分投資者感到害怕。

“Some think the government may yet force Alibaba to drop all these merchants that are selling fake goods, and if so, what is that going to do to sales on Taobao?” he asked.

他說：“部分人認爲，政府也許還未迫使阿里巴巴下線那些銷售僞劣商品的商家，如果他們這麼做，這會對淘寶的銷售產生什麼影響？”

Mark Natkin, director of Marbridge Consulting, the Beijing-based internet consultancy, said the SAIC row had “planted a coconut-sized seed of doubt in everyone’s mind” about Alibaba’s business model.

Marbridge Consulting董事馬克•納特金(Mark Natkins)表示，與工商總局的爭端“在每個人心目中埋下了（針對阿里巴巴商業模式的）巨大疑竇”。Marbridge Consulting是一家總部駐北京的互聯網諮詢公司。

“The SAIC’s report didn’t tell anyone anything they didn’t already know,” he said. “The fact that there are a lot of fake products on Taobao has never really bothered anyone, but now that the government seems serious about regulation, people don’t know what cleaning that up will mean for Alibaba’s bottom line.”

他說：“工商總局的報告所說的，全部是大家都知道的事實。淘寶網站充斥大量僞劣產品的事實從未真正困擾過任何人。然而，政府如今似乎要嚴肅對待淘寶網的監管問題。人們不太清楚的是，這一清理工作會對阿里巴巴的盈利產生什麼影響。”

The lower than expected revenues in January, added Mr Tsang, partly reflected a switch to mobile by many users — a platform that generates smaller revenues because merchants are unwilling to pay as much for mobile advertising.

Chi Tsang補充說，1月份阿里巴巴營收低於預期，部分反映出許多用戶轉向了移動設備。由於商家不願爲移動廣告支付同樣多的費用，移動平臺帶來的營收相對要少一些。

Mr Rein said another concern was that Alibaba was paying the price for its pre-IPO corporate shopping spree, and a hiring glut that raised staff headcount by nearly 50 per cent.

雷小山表示，人們還擔心的問題是，阿里巴巴正在爲IPO前的瘋狂收購行爲及其過度招聘行爲付出代價。在之前的過度招聘行爲中，阿里巴巴的員工人數增長了近50%。

Jack Ma, Alibaba’s chairman and founder, recently responded to accusations of bloat by declaring a hiring freeze along with other austerity measures, such as not paying workers a traditional spring festival bonus.

最近，爲迴應阿里巴巴過度膨脹的說法，阿里巴巴創始人兼董事長馬雲(Jack Ma)曾宣佈將停止招聘。此外，他還公佈了其他多項減支舉措——比如停止向員工發放傳統的春節獎金。

“They obviously pushed hard to get great numbers to have a super awesome IPO,” said Mr Rein. “But it’s hard to maintain that momentum. It might have been better to have slightly weaker IPO numbers, and then just kick butt in the coming quarters.”

雷小山表示：“很明顯，爲了在IPO中大獲成功，他們盡極大努力營造了完美的報表數據。然而，這種勢頭是很難維持的。也許，讓IPO的數據稍稍疲弱一點，再在隨後幾個季度裏發力可能會更好些。”

Cao Lei, director of the China Ecommerce Research Center in Alibaba’s home city of Hangzhou, said the acquisition spree last year — in which the company made more than $6bn of new investments in the lead-up to its IPO — had been a failure. “The abundance of companies it acquired last year have not apparently contributed to its existing business,” said Mr Cao.

中國電子商務研究中心(China Ecommerce Research Center)主任曹磊表示，去年阿里巴巴的瘋狂收購是個失敗的舉措。他說：“阿里巴巴去年收購的大量企業，似乎並未對其現有業務有何幫助。”在去年的瘋狂收購中，阿里巴巴在IPO前的新投資項目規模超過了60億美元。至於中國電子商務研究中心，該機構的位置就在阿里巴巴總部所在的杭州市。

“For the moment Alibaba does not have many tricks in the bag to impress the market,” he said.

他說：“目前，阿里巴巴沒有多少能讓市場印象深刻的錦囊妙計了。”

Alibaba, citing a pre-earnings quiet period, declined to comment.

阿里巴巴方面拒絕發表相關置評，表示目前處於發佈財報前的靜默期。