阿里巴巴遇冷 亞馬遜受寵 Amazon pops Alibaba drops

Jeff Bezos may run around Seattle, war paint daubed on his head, barking orders into his Fire Phone, urging employees to be nasty to each other.

傑夫貝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)可能正鉚足了勁在西雅圖四處活動，爲他家的Fire Phone大聲吆喝，並鼓勵員工互相撕咬。

The Amazon founder claims to be running a gentler company than his critics portray. But whatever he’s doing, investors like it a lot.

這位亞馬遜(Amazon)創始人聲稱，他經營的公司沒有批評者描述的那麼冷酷。不過，不論他在做的是什麼，都深得投資者的歡心。

There was great fanfare in July when Amazon’s market capitalisation surpassed Walmart’s. There was none on Monday when its enterprise value, which discounts cash and includes debt, rose to $251bn, overtaking the supermarket chain to become — for real this time — the world’s most valuable retailer.

今年7月，當亞馬遜市值超過沃爾瑪(Walmart)時，曾引起巨大轟動。而週一的另一則消息卻沒有引起絲毫的波瀾：亞馬遜的企業價值（等於市值減去現金、加上債務）攀升至2510億美元，超過了沃爾瑪，成爲全球（名副其實的）最有價值的零售商。

Earlier this year, its value overtook that of another company whose founder has magnetic appeal: Jack Ma’s Alibaba. Even though the Chinese ecommerce company enjoys superior revenue growth and fatter margins, its value is sinking. The first anniversary of its initial public offering was on Friday. The shares are below the IPO price and half their high point.

今年早些時候，該公司的市值超過了另一家其創始人有着磁石般吸引力的公司：馬雲的阿里巴巴(Alibaba)。儘管這家中國電子商務企業擁有更高的營收增長率和更豐厚的利潤率，它的市值卻在不斷縮水。上週五是阿里巴巴首次公開招股(IPO)一週年紀念日。該公司股價目前已低於發行價，只有其歷史最高價的一半。

There are some good reasons for reappraising Alibaba, notably Chinese economic worries and the slowest revenue growth in three years recorded in August. Yet Alibaba’s return on invested capital is 8 per cent; Amazon’s is minus 3 per cent. Even at a slightly slower pace, Alibaba’s revenue is growing at 40 per cent against Amazon’s 17 per cent. It is Amazon, though, that now commands a premium valuation: its enterprise value is 20 times next year’s forecast earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation compared with Alibaba at 19 times.

重新對阿里巴巴估值不乏充分理由，尤其是圍繞中國經濟的擔憂，以及今年8月錄得3年來最慢營收增長。不過，阿里巴巴的投入資本回報率(ROIC)是8%，亞馬遜只有-3%。即便營收增速有所放緩，阿里巴巴目前的營收增速也有40%，而亞馬遜的這個數字爲17%。然而，如今享有估值溢價的卻是亞馬遜：該公司市值是明年預計息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的20倍，而阿里巴巴的這一比例只有19倍。

The suspension of disbelief in Alibaba has been punctured. A lock-up expired on Monday, enabling large investors (including Mr Ma) to sell. They said they would not. The stock still fell 3 per cent. Its strange governance structure and the precarious ways in which value trickles to common stockholders are all part of the problem, yet they are nothing new.

對阿里巴巴一度中斷的懷疑再度恢復。週一，阿里巴巴股票解除禁售，令包括馬雲在內的該公司大股東能夠拋售手中的股票。這些投資者此前表示，他們不會賣。雖然如此，該公司股價仍下跌了3%。阿里巴巴奇特的治理結構，以及其企業價值緩慢回饋普通持股者的方式充滿不確定性，都是其股票遇冷的原因，然而這些並不是新近纔出現的問題。

The worry that Alibaba might disappoint has taken hold; the worry that Amazon might disappoint has — in spite of its lengthy record of doing precisely that — vanished.

對阿里巴巴可能令投資者失望的擔憂已然紮根，對亞馬遜可能令投資者失望的擔憂卻已經消失——儘管亞馬遜長期以來恰恰在令投資者失望。