美國製裁併非中興唯一問題 ZTE: conspicuous by absence

Absence does not always make the heart grow fonder. On Thursday shares in ZTE, the Chinese telecom equipment maker, resumed trading after a one-month suspension. The market sold them down by one-tenth.

小別未必帶來好感。週四，中國電信設備製造商中興通訊(ZTE)在停牌一個月後恢復交易。股價下挫十分之一。

They may have further to fall. In early March, the company said it was under investigation by the US for violating controls on exports to Iran. US companies were barred from selling products to ZTE (although they were subsequently permitted to do so under licences that run until June). On Thursday, at the reopen, ZTE said the outcome of the investigation was “highly uncertain”.

中興股價還可能進一步下跌。3月初，該公司表示正在接受美國商務部調查，原因是涉嫌違反美國對伊朗的出口管制。美國公司不得向中興銷售產品（儘管隨後他們又被允許按照許可證銷售至今年6月）。中興在週四恢復交易時表示，調查結果仍有“重大不確定性”。

The incident is a reminder of Chinese companies’ reliance on US technology. Nomura estimates that ZTE sources up to 15 per cent of its inputs by value from the US. Given the risks that have come to light, this will have to change. But China’s efforts to acquire US technology outright has had mixed results. State-backed Tsinghua Unigroup’s bid to buy Micron failed, although chip designer Integrated Silicon Solutions was sold to a Chinese buyer. ZTE peer Huawei, which announced stellar numbers last week, has taken an alternative tack: last year, it spent 15 per cent of revenues on research and development, up one percentage point from 2014. That is in line with tech leaders such as Broadcom, and a few percentage points above ZTE.

這起事件提醒世人，中國公司依賴美國科技。野村證券(Nomura)估計，按價值計算，中興從美國採購高達15%的投入。鑑於這次顯露的風險，這一局面必須改變。但中資直接買斷美國科技的努力迄今有成有敗。政府背景的清華紫光(Tsinghua Unigroup)競購美光(Micron)失敗，但芯片設計企業芯成半導體有限公司(Integrated Silicon Solution, ISSI)被賣給了中國買家。中興的同行、上週發佈了可喜業績的華爲(Huawei)，則選擇了另一種策略：去年，華爲將總營收的15%投入研發，比2014年高出一個百分點。這一水平與博通(Broadcom)等科技行業龍頭企業一致，比中興則高出幾個百分點。

ZTE must spend to grow. Delayed 2015 results, also released on Thursday, showed revenues up less than a quarter, lagging behind both forecasts and Huawei, four times larger but growing at 37 per cent. The uptick in ZTE sales was skewed towards domestic infrastructure spending, expected to slow next year. Although there were impressive gains in the US handset market, growth in Europe, the Americas and Oceania (which are lumped together) was a measly tenth.

中興必須加大支出以推動增長。推遲至週四發佈的2015年業績報告顯示，營收增長低於四分之一，遜於預期和華爲；華爲的規模四倍於中興，卻實現了37%的營收增長。中興的銷售增長主要來自國內基礎設施建設開支，預計明年將放緩。雖然在美國手機市場取得令人印象深刻的進展，但歐洲、美洲和大洋洲（合併報告）的增長只有區區十分之一。

One way ZTE can try to improve these metrics is to lift its brand, currently focused on low-end phones. Its strategy of investing in high-profile US basketball sponsorships has helped it gain share in the handset market, but with prices as low as $30 it must sell a lot to make much difference. Moving upmarket will demand a step-change in R&D, likely to hit short-term profits.

中興可以嘗試改善這些指標的方法之一是提升其品牌，目前重點是在低端手機市場。該公司贊助美國重大籃球賽事的投資幫助其贏得了手機市場份額，但以低至30美元的價格，它得賣出很多手機才能實質性提升業績。向高端市場進軍就需要在研發上有大動作，這可能會影響短期利潤。

Whether or not the US ultimately forgives ZTE’s transgressions, the company’s profitability is about to become more notable by its absence.

不管美國官方最終是否原諒中興違反管制的行爲，該公司缺乏盈利能力的問題值得關注。