2000元迷你iPhone能讓蘋果中國份額翻三番
Adding to the growing literature of sell-side analysts who think the answer to Apple's (AAPL) market valuation woes (down 35% since September) is a low-cost iPhone, MorganStanley's Katy Huberty has looked at China, the world's largest smartphone market, and done the math.
蘋果（Apple）正面臨着市值跳水的窘境，蘋果股價從去年9月至今已下跌了35%。衆多賣方分析師紛紛獻計獻策，現在甚至有人建議蘋果推出廉價iPhone。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）公司的凱蒂?休伯蒂對中國這一全球最大的智能手機市場進行了分析，並給大家算了一筆賬。She made several points in a note to clients Tuesday that struck me as new:
週二，她在給客戶的一封信裏提出了下面幾個觀點，令我耳目一新：Contrary to the consensus view -- which assumes that smartphones in China will only get cheaper -- she cites research showing that the average selling price stablized last yearand has actually started to increase as Chinese users trade up to higher-quality smartphones.
人們大多認爲，中國的智能手機只會越來越便宜。與此相反，她援引一些研究結果，表明去年中國智能手機的平均售價趨於穩定。同時隨着中國用戶開始購買品質更好的智能手機，售價實際上已開始走高。
That Apple could launch a 2,000 yuan ($330) iPhone mini and be competitive with flagship products from Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and Coolpad.
蘋果公司可以推出一款售價2,000元人民幣（330美元）的迷你iPhone，這樣就能和聯想（Lenovo）、華爲（Huawei）、中興（ZTE）和酷派（Coolpad）的旗艦產品相抗衡了。That even at a lower profit margin (say, 40%) and a 1/3 cannibalization rate (i.e. customers buy one third fewer full-priced iPhones), the cheaper iPhone would increase Apple'srevenue and gross profits (see her spreadsheet above).
就算利潤率更低（比如40%），並且替代率爲1/3（即全價iPhone的客戶流失三分之一），低價iPhone也能提高蘋果的營收和毛利潤（見上表）。That an iPhone mini and a LTE license from the Chinese government this year or next could finally persuade China Mobile (CHL), with 700 million subscribers, to cut a deal with Apple.
推出迷你iPhone後，加上中國今年或明年頒發LTE執照，就能最終說服擁有7億用戶的中國移動（China Mobile）和蘋果簽約。If all this comes to pass, Huberty estimates that Apple's addressable smartphone market in China, which had dwindled to 10%, could triple to nearly 30%.
如果上述情況都變成現實，休伯蒂估計蘋果在中國智能手機市場上已跌至10%的份額將會提高三倍，達到近30%。This assumes, of course, that Apple can find a way to build a $330 iPhone with cheaper parts, a slower processor, a lower resolution screen and perhaps a plastic body, thatisn't, in the phrase Tim Cook used at a Goldman Sachs conference last week, "a crappy product."
當然，這得取決於蘋果是否能設法用更便宜的零部件、更慢的處理器、分辨率更低的屏幕、以及也許是塑料機身來造出一部330美元的iPhone。而用蒂姆?庫克上週在高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）一次會議上的話說，它決不能是個“低劣產品”。
