中國手機制造商與經銷商需挑戰高端層次

Xi Guohua will not have to join any queues to get his iPhone. The China Mobile chairman was given one by Apple chief Tim Cook. Friday sees the launch of the iPhone on the Chinese network, with its mind-boggling 750m subscriber base. But the iPhone’s moment in the world’s biggest market comes just as the local competition is gearing up. If, as Apple’s (and Samsung’s) margins suggest, even high-end smartphones are becoming less profitable, what are the likes of Huawei, Lenovo and Xiaomi thinking?

奚國華用不着排隊就得到了一臺iPhone。這位中國移動(China Mobile)董事長剛得到蘋果(Apple)首席執行官蒂姆?庫克(Tim Cook)送的一部iPhone。本週五，中國移動版iPhone正式發售，而該公司用戶總數是驚人的7.5億。不過，iPhone在世界最大的市場迎來激動人心的時刻之際，正是本土競爭加劇之時。如果連高端智能手機的利潤率都會下降的話——就像蘋果和三星(Samsung)的利潤率所體現的那樣，那麼像華爲(Huawei)、聯想(Lenovo)和小米(Xiaomi)這樣的生產商，又該作何感想呢？

Combined, China’s top 10 makers expect to shift more than 400m phones this year, a 50 per cent increase on 2013. About 440m smartphones will be sold in China in 2014, according to Credit Suisse – a 25 per cent jump. That includes Apple, Samsung and other top-tier makers, implying the home brands must also be aiming for other emerging markets, where sales are expected to rise a third, to 470m Chinese makers often have high-end ambitions, but their bread and butter is in the low- and mid-range phones that rule emerging markets.

2014年，中國十大手機制造商預計總共將銷售手機逾4億部，比2013年增長50%。據瑞信(Credit Suisse)預測，中國今年的智能手機銷量將達到約4.4億部，同比增長25%，其中蘋果、三星和其他第一梯隊製造商會佔據一些份額，意味着中國本土品牌也必須瞄準其他新興市場，這些市場的手機銷量預計將增加三分之一，達到4.7億部。中國製造商往往有生產高端手機的抱負，但它們賴以爲生的卻是在新興市場占主導地位的低端和中端產品。

Plentiful demand is one thing, making money is another. Apple and Samsung profit from using their scale and brands to cut costs and demand top dollar. Low-end phones cost far less to make. The cost of producing a so-so brand 4.7’’ screen phone could be as low as $94, Credit Suisse reckons, compared with $266 for Samsung’s Galaxy S4. But that cheap phone sells for $122, versus $554 for Samsung’s smash hit. That is a 10 times difference in gross profit. Sure, commoditisation will squeeze Samsung and Apple, but it will not entirely kill their pricing power. If consumers happily pay premiums for cigarettes and branded water, it is not hard to see value in a strong phone brand.

龐大的需求是一回事，賺錢是另一回事。蘋果和三星的盈利法寶是利用規模和品牌來削減成本，並讓消費者爲其產品付儘可能高的價錢。低端手機的成本低得多。瑞信估計，生產一部4.7英寸、品牌一般的手機，最低只需94美元。相比之下，三星Galaxy S4的生產成本是266美元。而三星這款熱賣機的售價是554美元，前面那款便宜機僅售122美元，二者毛利相差10倍。當然，產品大衆化會擠壓三星和蘋果的利潤，但並不會完全使其喪失定價能力。既然消費者會樂於爲香菸和品牌飲用水支付高價，一個強大的手機品牌的價值也就不難明白。

Chinese makers could try taking on Samsung and Apple by building rival brands – but ask HTC about the risks in that. The jump in this year’s shipments implies they are instead seeking scale in order to squeeze suppliers and grind out profits. It is the better plan, but it will not make much money, either.

中國製造商可以通過建立競爭性品牌來挑戰三星和蘋果——但請向宏達電(HTC)請教這樣做的風險。今年的出貨量繼續大增，表明這些製造商寧願追求規模，以便擠壓供應商，榨取更多利潤。這是個更好的計劃，但也不會讓它們賺很多。