不顧一切最早買蘋果新產品的成本有多高

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智能手錶新時代終於到來，Apple Watch宣告正式發售。儘管這並不是說你現在隨便走進一家蘋果商店就能買到，很可能得等到5月才行。但現在正是我們來探討一個重要問題的好時機：各位讀者，你們應不應該成爲Apple Watch的早期用戶呢？

The Apple Watch was officially released today. That doesn’t mean you can walk up to the counter and buy one yet—watches may not be coming to retail outlets until May—but now is as good a time as any to ask the all-important question: Should you, gentle reader, become an Apple Watch early adopter?

答案或許歸根結底要看你對這款產品感覺怎樣。評論人士告訴我們，Apple Watch很酷，雖然稍有瑕疵，但絕對是可穿戴科技領域的首款主流產品。如果對你來說，把一款蘋果移動產品綁在身上不是非常有吸引力，那就不難下決定：暫時不買。不過對像我這樣的科技狂熱者來說，買不買第一代Apple Watch根本不用問，非買不可。

The answer may simply come down to your feelings about the product, which the reviewers tell us is a cool, somewhat flawed, but legitimately mainstream first foray into wearable technology. If the idea of literally strapping an Apple Mobile device to your body doesn’t sound very appealing, then the decision isn’t complicated: Skip it for now. At the other end of the spectrum are tech junkies like me for whom a first-generation Apple Watch isn’t a question at all, but an inevitability.

但對衆多普通人來說，買不買是基於成本和收益做出的理性購物決定（我有時也想這麼理性！），Apple Watch確實讓人糾結：是早下手跟上潮流？還是等你不用再糾結了再說？

But for many normal people who make rational purchasing decisions based on costs and benefits—let me know what that’s like sometime!—the Apple Watch presents a real dilemma: Do you take the plunge and get in early on the smartwatch trend, or do you wait until the kinks have been worked out?

蘋果公司降價簡史

A short history of Apple price cutting

左右你決定的應該主要基於兩大變量：一是Apple Watch將來會便宜多少，性能會提高多少？二是你願意爲那個“將來”等多久？

Your decision should largely depend on two variables: How much cheaper and better will the Apple Watch be in the future, and how long will one have to wait until that future arrives?

我們回顧一下2000年以來蘋果公司的主要新產品，能對把握這兩個問題有所心得。

A look at Apple’s major new product categories going back to the beginning of the millennium gives us some insight into both of these unknowns.

初代iPod。2001年10月上市，售價399美元，容量5GB。一年半以後進行了首次重大硬件更新，包括添加底座連接器；屏幕改善極大，而且沒那麼容易碎了；存儲容量也增加一倍。售價降至299美元。

The original iPod.Released in October of 2001, it cost $399 and shipped with five gigabytes of storage. A year and a half later, the first major hardware revision—which introduced the dock connector and a greatly improved and less break-prone interface—doubled the base model’s storage and dropped the price down to $299.

iPhone。如果說哪種蘋果產品會讓打算儘早入手的人三思的話，iPhone就是一個。容量8GB的iPhone於2007年6月底發售，零售價599美元。不到三個月價格就降至399美元。初代iPhone上市才一年多時間，蘋果就推出了199美元的3G版iPhone，降價幅度達到66%。

The iPhone.A cautionary tale for early adopters if there ever was one. Launched in late June 2007 with the 8 gigabyte model retailing for $599, the iPhone’s price was cut to $399 less than three months later. And just over a year after the original release, Apple shipped the iPhone 3G at $199, a 66% price reduction.

Apple TV機頂盒。並不是所有蘋果新產品的價格都會如此迅速下降。Apple TV機頂盒就三年半沒有降價。但當它開始降價時，一下從2007年3月的299美元降到了2010年9月的99美元。

Apple TV.Not all of Apple’s new product categories have seen their price fall quite so fast. The Apple TV didn’t get cheaper for three and a half years; but between March 2007 and September 2010 it went from basically a $299 media center PC to a $99 streaming box.

iPad。也許有人會說，iPad的價格沒有太大的變化。問世四年多以來，iPad基本款售價仍是原來的499美元。不過，許多等待了兩年半的消費者以329美元買下iPad mini後，都覺得這個選擇很明智。銷售預期已經顯示，iPad mini纔是大多數人實際上想要的。

The iPad.Some might argue that the price of the iPad hasn’t changed much at all. More than four years after its release, the base model still sells for the original sticker price of $499. That said, the many consumers who waited two and a half years for the $329 iPad Mini feel they made a very wise decision—and it’s hard to argue considering that sales estimates suggests it’s the iPad most people actually wanted.

那麼結論是什麼呢？分析了這些數據後，我發現從2000年開始，蘋果主要消費類新產品首次大降價的平均幅度爲48%，平均時間是在產品發售兩年零三個月以後。

So what’s the bottom line? Well, I crunched the numbers together (you can see my admittedly unscientific methodology in the footnote below) and found that since 2000, the average major new consumer-product category from Apple fell 48% in price between the original launch and the first major price cut, which on average took 2 years and 3 months.