總結:在美國黑色星期五聰明地購物

Before lining up at a retail store or firing up your computer for Black Friday bargains this week, ask yourself one question: Have you ever scored a great deal from the annual post-Thanksgiving shopping bonanza?

在到零售店排隊或打開電腦爲黑色星期五做準備之前，先問自己一個問題：在這一年一度的感恩節後大掃貨中，你曾經撿到過大便宜嗎？

If you were hard-pressed to think of something, you would not be alone. Black Friday, which has traditionally been the Moment to flock to stores for steep discounts, and which has evolved to also include major online sales events for retailers like Amazon, Best Buy and Walmart, is not all that it is billed to be. We asked J. D. Levite, the deals editor of the product recommendations website The Wirecutter, for some data on just how beneficial the deals are on Black Friday — and the answer was not encouraging.

如果你很難想起什麼，不奇怪。黑色星期五傳統上是涌向商店獲取大幅折扣的時刻，並已發展到包括亞馬遜(Amazon)、百思買(Best Buy)和沃爾瑪(Walmart)等零售商的大型在線銷售活動，但實際情況跟標榜的有所不同。黑五究竟能帶來多少實惠？我們就此詢問了產品推薦網TheWirecutter的特惠編輯J·D·萊維特(J. D. Levite)，答案令人沮喪。

Year round, Mr. Levite and his team track product prices across the web to unearth discounts on goods of all types, from gadgets to kitchenware. They also look at whether the product is high quality and durable based on their own testing and other reviews, and whether the seller or brand has a reasonable return or warranty policy. By those measures, Mr. Levite said, only about 0.6 percent, or 200 out of the approximately 34,000 deals online, which typically carry the same price tags inside retailers’ physical stores, will be good ones on Black Friday.

萊維特和他的團隊會全年對網上的產品價格進行跟蹤，以發掘從電子產品到廚具等各類商品的折扣。他們還根據自己的測試和其他的評價來判斷產品質量和耐用性如何，以及銷售商或品牌是否提供合理了的回報或保修政策。萊維特說，經過這些衡量，在黑色星期五隻有大約0.6％的網上優惠是划算了——也就是大約3.4萬個優惠中的200個，網上標價通常與零售商實體店鋪內是一致的。

“There are just more deals on that day than any other day of the year,” he said. “But for the most part, the deals aren’t anything better than what you’d see throughout the rest of the year.”

“這一天只是比一年中的其他日子有更多的優惠而已，”他說。“但在大多數情況下，這些優惠都沒有比你在全年其他時間裏看到的更好。”

There’s a smarter way to shop than relying on Black Friday. With the plethora of web tools now available, consumers can research online and then use trackers to follow product pricing for drops throughout the year. While it’s a time-consuming effort, the method is more precise for understanding pricing trends, both online and in stores.

有一個不依賴黑色星期五的更聰明的購物方法。如今網絡工具多如牛毛，消費者可以在網上做功課，然後用跟蹤器來全年跟蹤產品的價格，等待降價。雖然這很費時，但可以更精確地瞭解線上線下的價格趨勢。

One useful tracking tool is Camel Camel Camel, which is geared toward users of the online retail behemoth Amazon. Using the Camel Camel Camel website, people can view a product’s price history on and then create alerts to receive an email as soon as the item’s price falls to a certain threshold.

其中一個有用的跟蹤工具是針對網上零售巨頭亞馬遜的用戶開發的Camel Camel Camel。在Camel Camel Camel網站上，人們可以看到亞馬遜網站上產品的歷史價格，然後創建提醒，當商品的價格一降到某一閾值，就會收到一封電子郵件。

Over time, interesting trends emerge. One is that some product prices are raised in October, a few weeks before Black Friday. The prices are reduced again on Black Friday.

經過一段時間，有趣的趨勢出現了。其中之一是，一些產品的價格在十月上調，也就是黑色星期五幾周前。然後在黑色星期五再次降低。

Mr. Levite cited the example of the Basis Peak Ultimate Fitness and Sleep Tracker, which was listed on Amazon at around $150 in September. At the beginning of November, the gadget shot up to $170. This week, the price fell back down to $150.

萊維特舉了Basis Peak健身和睡眠跟蹤器的例子，這種產品在亞馬遜上九月份列出的價格是150美元。在十一月初暴漲到170美元。本週回落至150美元。

“We do not raise prices ahead of Black Friday deals to make deals look more attractive,” Sarah Gelman, an Amazon spokeswoman, said.

“我們不會爲了讓優惠更誘人而在黑色星期五前提價，”亞馬遜發言人莎拉·吉爾曼(Sarah Gelman)說。

Camel Camel Camel’s database also shows some items have predictable pricing patterns over the course of a year. A pair of bookshelf speakers made by Pioneer are typically $127, but that tends to drop significantly in August — to $60 in August 2014 and to $88 in August 2015, timed to the back-to-school season. This week, the same pair of speakers was again $127. In other words, there are times of year when different types of products decline in price — and Black Friday isn’t one of them.

Camel Camel Camel數據庫還顯示了在一年內定價有可預測規律的商品。一對先鋒(Pioneer)書架式音箱通常賣127美元，但在八月份其價格會趨向顯著下降——2014年八月降至60美元，2015年八月降至88美元，限時到開學季。本週，同一對音箱價格再次回到127美元。換句話說，一年中不同類型的產品有其價格下降的時段——黑色星期五不是其中之一。

Price tracking also illuminates the seasonality of products. Between June and August, when people are more likely to plan camping trips, tents often get heavier discounts on Amazon, for example. Camel Camel Camel’s database showed that a Coleman six-person tent cost $169 in August, but the price is now about $236.

價格跟蹤也說明了產品的季節性。六月至八月間，人們更傾向於野營旅行，帳篷經常在亞馬遜上有較大的折扣。例如，Camel Camel Camel的數據庫表明，一頂Coleman六人帳篷八月份價格是169美元，但現在的價格約爲236美元。

Other items rarely budge in price. A pair of high-end Bose headphones has stayed firm at $299 for over a year, according to Camel Camel Camel’s database. It wouldn’t hurt to buy items like this anytime you want, or to wait for the pricing to drop when a new version of the product is released.

其他商品價格很少讓步。根據Camel Camel Camel數據庫，一對高端的博士(Bose)耳機一年多來價格一直保持在299美元。在任何你想買的時間購買此類商品都不會吃虧，或者等到該產品新款上市後價格下降了再買。

Daniel Green, the founder of Camel Camel Camel, agreed with these assessments. “Shopping the Black Friday sales is no different from any other time,” he said.

Camel Camel Camel的創始人丹尼爾·格林(DanielGreen)也同意這些結論。“購黑色星期五的促銷，其實和在別的時間消費也沒什麼差別。”

There’s still a way to take advantage of Black Friday by checking for price reductions on specific items — like a particular television set — that you have been wanting. I found a well-reviewed Vizio television that was $1,633 in April but dropped to $1,098 this month, according to Camel Camel Camel.

但是，通過對比特定商品的降價，黑色星期五也可以有划算的時候，例如你一直想買的某品牌電視機。根據Camel Camel Camel數據顯示，我發現一款廣受好評的Vizio牌電視機在四月的價格是1633美元，但這個月降價到1098美元。

Price tracking data also illustrate that the lack of real deals holds true for Cyber Monday, the Monday after Black Friday that is billed as an online shopper’s heaven with numerous digital discounts. Rendering the shopping event even more absurd, Walmart has said it would begin its Cyber Monday Sunday evening, so people wouldn’t have to stay up late to shop online.

價格追蹤數據還顯示，“網購星期一”(Cyber Monday)的優惠也缺乏誠意。那是“黑色星期五”後的週一，號稱有大量的網購折扣。讓這個購物活動更顯荒誕的是，沃爾瑪宣佈將把“網購星期一”提前到週日晚上，這樣人們就不需要熬夜下單了。

Of course it’s a tad late to start price tracking now. So for this week, try other web tools like , which compares pricing of products across different retailers. On the website, you enter the name of a product, and the tool pulls up a search. Clicking the “Compare Now” button shows the bottom line pricing of the product (including tax and shipping costs) for various retailers.

當然，現在纔開始價格追蹤有些晚了。從這周起，可以嘗試下其他網絡比價工具，比如網站。在該網站上，你可以輸入商品名，系統會進行搜索；點擊“Compare Now”（開始比較），就會顯示出衆多零售商關於該商品的最低報價（含稅和運費）。

The New York Times also tested other shopping tools. They include ShopSavvy, an app for scanning item bar codes to do price comparisons online, and Slice, an app that tracks your previous purchases in case the price of something you recently bought gets marked down later, which may spur a refund.

《紐約時報》也試驗了其他購物工具。包括ShopSavvy，這是一款掃描條形碼進行在線比價應用；還有可以追蹤你此前購物的Slice，如果你最近購買的商品大幅降價了，就可以考慮去退貨。

Some shopping data suggests that consumers are wising up by shopping well ahead of Black Friday. About 25 percent of American consumers had already finished some holiday shopping before Halloween, according to a report from eMarketer, the research firm. The report also said 48 percent of American shoppers last year finished most of their holiday shopping by Cyber Monday, up from 40 percent the previous year.

購物數據顯示，消費者開始瞭解到要在黑色星期五之前購物。根據調查機構eMarketer的報告，大約25%的美國消費者早在萬聖節前就完成了部分節日購物。報告稱，去年，48%的美國消費者在“網購星期一”前就解決了大部分的節日購物，比前年的40%有所提升。

Some retailers are opting out of Black Friday. Last month, the sporting goods retailer REI said its stores would close during Black Friday as part of a campaign urging people to go outside. Ben Steele, the chief creative officer of REI, said in an interview that the company made the decision after assessing the chaotic environment that Black Friday tends to create.

一些零售商決定退出黑色星期五的競爭。上月，運動產品零售商REI稱，旗下門店將在黑色星期五閉門歇業，也是想號召人們多去戶外的活動。REI公司的首席創意總監本·斯蒂爾(Ben Steele)在採訪中說，該公司在評估黑色星期五會造成的混亂情況後，作出了這項決定。

“Do we want employees to leave their families early on Thanksgiving? No,” Mr. Steele said. “There’s an opportunity for us to do something different.” Other stores, like Joe’s Bike Shop in Maryland and Outdoor Research in Seattle, have since said they were closing shop this Friday, too.

“我們想讓僱員在感恩節早早地離家去工作麼？不，”斯蒂爾先生說。“我們有機會做些與衆不同的事。”其他的商店，例如馬里蘭的Joe’s自行車行和西雅圖的Outdoor Research，都宣稱會在今年的黑色星期五閉門歇業。