商場:不要重複年犯的錯誤

Investors once again are plowing Money into stock mutual funds. Are they setting themselves up to get burned like it's 2008 all over again?

投資者們正在又一次大舉投入股票型共同基金。他們會像2008年那樣，再次引火燒身嗎？

Some $65.4 billion flowed into equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in January, the largest monthly net influx ever, according to Morningstar Inc.

晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)稱，1月份，大約有654億美元的資金流入股票共同基金和交易所交易基金。這是有史以來單月淨流入量最大的一個月。

That doesn't mean investors are abandoning bonds─$39.2 billion went into bond funds and ETFs that same month.

這並非指投資者正拋棄債券──在同一個月裏，有392億美元的資金進入了債券式基金和交易所交易基金。

But more people appear to be warming up to stocks, in many cases likely by diverting money they had been sending to money-market funds and bank savings accounts.

但似乎有更多人準備開始投資股票了。很多情況下，他們可能會將過去投入貨幣市場基金和儲蓄賬戶的錢轉投股票。

Certainly, there are reasons to make the move. Opportunities for yield elsewhere are slim. Equity valuations are still considered attractive by many analysts, though prices aren't as low as they were a few years ago.

當然，他們有轉移資金的理由。其它領域能夠產生收益的機會很小，很多分析人士認爲股票目前的估值仍具備吸引力，儘管股價已高於幾年前的水平了。

It's also important to note that one month's data doesn't a trend make.

同樣值得注意的是，一個月的數據並不足以構成一種趨勢。

January is often a big month for stock-fund inflows, in part due to lump-sum retirement-plan contributions, says David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Morningstar Investment Management, an advisory unit of Morningstar Inc. And, he adds, many investors are still gun-shy from the severe market drop in 2007-09. 'A lot of people didn't do a very good job trying to time it,' he says.

戴維??布蘭切特(David Blanchett)是晨星公司下屬諮詢企業晨星投資管理公司(Morningstar Investment Management)研究退休業務的主管。他說，1月經常都是資金大量流入股票基金的月份，部分原因是來自退休計劃的一次性繳款。他還補充說，很多投資者對2007-2009年間市場的劇烈下跌仍心有餘悸。“許多人沒能很好地判斷投資時機”,他說。

Whether the move into stocks is a one-month anomaly or a long-term trend, now is a good time to reflect on some of the mistakes investors made before and during the big downturn of a few years ago─and how to avoid those errors going forward.

不管入市的舉動是單月的異常現象還是一個長期趨勢，當前都是投資者們用來反省他們在幾年前的經濟衰退前或衰退中所犯錯誤的大好時機──以及如何避免這些錯誤的再次發生。

Falling for the Hype

輕信炒作

The market could be on a long-term bull run─or it could be on the verge of a sharp fall. Nobody knows. And that's the point. So it's best not to let the excitement of rising share prices distract you from a reasoned, long-term investment plan.

市場可能處於長期的牛市，也可能處在暴跌的邊緣。沒有人確切知道，這纔是關鍵。因此最好不要讓股價上漲帶來的興奮，妨礙你執行合理的長期投資計劃。

'From our perspective, to make a long-term purchase decision for stocks in a properly balanced account right now makes sense,' says Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede, a wealth-management firm based in Philadelphia. But if you're jumping in now because 'you're seeing a surge in stocks and you're chasing that return, hoping you don't miss out on the next couple of months, be wary of that behavioral bias that [often emerges] after a run of the magnitude we've seen,' he says.

費城一家名爲Glenmede的財富管理公司的投資策略主管賈森??普賴德(Jason Pride)說：“在我們看來，一個平衡的投資組合現在出於長期投資的考量而決定買入股票是合理的。”但他說，如果你現在匆忙入市是因爲你看到股市大漲，從而想要追逐收益，不希望自己在未來幾個月裏錯失良機，那麼你要小心在遇到大漲之後出現行爲偏差，這種情況在出現當前程度的漲幅後經常會發生。

Others put it more bluntly.

其他人把話說得更直白。

'If you can't focus on the long term, you don't belong in the stock market,' says Carl Hess, global head of investment at consulting firm Towers Watson, in New York.

紐約韜睿惠悅諮詢公司(Towers Watson)的全球投資主管卡爾??赫斯(Carl Hess)說：“如果你不能着眼於長期，你根本不適合進入股票市場。”

Failure to Diversify

未能分散投資

The 2007-09 bear market amply demonstrated that adequate diversification isn't easy.

2007-2009年的熊市充分說明，要實現適當的分散投資並不容易。

'Over the last few decades, it's been increasingly hard to get diversification within equity markets,' Mr. Hess says. 'They increasingly tend to all behave more like each other.'

“在過去的幾十年裏，股票市場裏的分散投資越來越難，”赫斯說，“它們的表現越發趨同。”

Mr. Hess suggests looking beyond stocks and bonds for portfolio balance, to alternative investments. 'You might want to think about commercial real estate, things like timber, currency, commodities,' he says.

爲了平衡投資組合，赫斯建議考慮股票和債券之外的其它投資。“你也許可以考慮一下商業地產以及木材、外匯、大宗商品等選項，”他說。

He advocates a passive approach, rather than an active one that tries to beat market indexes. That means buying mutual funds 'that are managed as close to passively as possible, both to minimize fees and to reduce reliance on one particular investment manager,' he says.

他主張被動投資，而不是採取主動的方式來試圖跑贏市場。他說，這意味着投資“管理風格儘可能被動的”共同基金，從而將費用降到最低程度並減少對某個投資經理的依賴。

Mr. Pride says one strategy he employs is to invest in selected hedge funds that aren't correlated with the broad markets. Some funds also try to deliver uncorrelated performance.

普賴德說，他使用的一個策略是投資那些精選出來的、與整體市場關聯性較低的對衝基金。一些基金也會盡量爭取讓自己的表現不與大盤產生關聯性。

Whatever your path, proceed carefully. Some 325 mutual funds employ an alternative investment approach, up from 165 such funds in 2008, according to Morningstar. Many of those funds are new since the market bottomed─and that means they're untested.

不管你選擇何種方式，都要小心行事。據晨星公司透露，大約有325支共同基金使用了另類投資方式，而2008年這類基金只有165支。這些基金中有很多家都是在股市探底之後新推出的──這意味着它們還未經受過檢驗。

'You may be increasing your risk,' says Laura Thurow, director of private wealth management research at Robert W. Baird & Co., in Milwaukee. Know what you own, she says. Study the prospectus or talk to a financial adviser. 'There is a lot more analysis that needs to be done in areas that are new.'

美國密爾沃基市Robert W. Baird & Co.的私人財富管理研究主管勞拉??瑟羅(Laura Thurow)說，你也許正在增加自己的風險。她說，要了解你持有的東西。要好好研究招股書，或者跟財務諮詢師談談。在新領域裏，有多得多的東西需要研究分析。

Buying Based on Past Performance

根據以往表現購買

Investors tend to focus on the rearview mirror when looking at stocks or other assets. Look at current valuations instead.

投資者在觀察股票或其它資產時往往把目光集中在它們的歷史表現上，但其實更應被關注的是當前的估值。

Ask: 'What are they priced at now, and can that possibly get me the same return going forward?' says Mr. Hess.

赫斯說，要問問你自己，它們現在的股價是多少，這樣的股價還有沒有可能讓我在未來獲得相同的回報？

For example, if the stock market has gone from 10 times earnings to 20 times, getting the same return going forward means prices climbing to 40 times earnings. 'That might be a bit of a stretch,' he says.

例如，如果股市的市盈率已經從10倍上升到了20倍，那在未來要獲得相同的回報就意味着股票的市盈率需攀升到40倍。赫斯說，那可不太實際。

Investing Without a Plan

無計劃盲目投資

Are you out to beat the market? Sounds good, until you realize that if the market drops 50% and you're down 40%, you've met your goal, says Paul Merriman, president of the Merriman Financial Education Foundation and a longtime financial adviser.

梅里曼金融教育基金會(Merriman Financial Education Foundation)主席、長期擔任金融顧問的保羅??梅里曼(Paul Merriman)說，你想要跑贏市場？這聽起來很好，直到你意識到，如果市場下跌了50%，而你的股票下跌了40%，你其實已經達到目標了。

Investors should decide whether they want to beat the market, get the highest return within their risk tolerance─a good strategy for young to middle-aged people─or get the needed return at the lowest risk, a goal more suited to those in or near retirement, Mr. Merriman says. 'Most people do not have their portfolio matched to what their primary goal is,' he says.

梅里曼指出，投資者應該決定他們是想要跑贏市場、在自己的風險承受能力範圍內獲取最高回報，還是要以最低的風險去獲取所需的回報。前者適合年輕人和中年人，後者更適合那些已經退休或者即將退休的人。他說，大多數人的投資組合與他們的首要目標不匹配。

When you know your plan, which should include a target allocation among stocks, bonds and other assets, stick to it. 'Practice policy fidelity,' says Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Philadelphia-based financial-services firm Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. 'Don't let the emotions─what's being touted about the market or 'We're 180 points from all-time highs!'─trap you into doing something that is incongruent with your personal risk budget.'

在你確定了自己的計劃後（計劃應該明確在股票、債券和其它資產中如何進行資產配置），應該按計劃操作。總部位於費城的金融服務公司Janney Montgomery Scott LLC的首席投資策略師馬克口拉什奇尼(Mark Luschini)說，堅持原則的一貫性，不要讓情緒──鼓吹市場的話或者類似於“我們距離歷史最高點只有180點了”這樣的話──誘惑你做出與你的個人風險預算不協調的事情。

Failure to Know Your Limits

不知道自己的底線

Going into the downturn, many investors were complacent about risk. From 2003 through 2007, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index almost doubled, without a lot of volatility, notes Ms. Thurow.

瑟羅提示說，當進入低迷期時，很多投資者對於風險的估計是盲目樂觀的。從2003年到2007年底，標準普爾500指數幾乎翻了一番，且沒有太多的波動。

'People got comfortable,' she says. Some had too much of their money in equities because of an unrealistic idea of their risk tolerance. These days, investors may be reaching for risk out of desperation, driven by low interest rates rather than complacency.

她說，人們感覺很好。有些人把太多的錢投入股票，是因爲他們對自己的風險承受力有不切實際的認識。目前，投資者可能不是因爲盲目樂觀，而是因爲低利率纔不顧一切地追逐風險。

Either way, you may end up taking a bigger hit than you can afford. Take the time to understand what you're willing to put on the line.

不管出於哪種情況，最終你都有可能遭受自己根本承受不起的打擊。一定要先花時間想清楚，你願意承擔什麼樣的風險。