爲什麼創業公司的晚期估值像火箭般飆漲

Several private, venture-backed companies have achieved rapid and extreme valuation mark-ups. This has obviously been going on for some time now in Silicon Valley and the private tech sector, but the magnitude and frequency of the recent write-ups has given me pause. I’ve been trying to piece together the ingredients that are creating this environment, and it comes down to the following: Scarcity, momentum, FOMO and gains:

多家獲得風投支持的私營企業迅速獲得了極高的估值增長。在硅谷和私營科技企業中，這種現象顯然已經存在了一段時間。然而，最近其估值的提升幅度和頻率仍令我感到震驚。我一直在努力蒐集形成這種環境的各種因素——我的最終得出的結論是：稀缺性、市場動力、擔心坐失良機的心理和收益。

1. Scarcity

1. 稀缺性

Despite the fact that public market stock performance has been muted so far this year, private market valuations continue to surge upwards. Why this dichotomy? One big factor is scarcity. Private companies don’t raise money every day. If a VC wants to invest in a company, she may only get the option once a year. Given all the big funds that have been raised, fierce competition naturally ensues for these scarce slots in the most attractive companies. As a result, the prevailing logic of the winning bidder tends to be along the lines of “this might look expensive today based on fundamentals (or lack of fundamentals), but this will look like a great price down the road when this company is worth much more as it grows.”

儘管年初以來股市表現一般，但私募市場的估值水平繼續迅速躥升。爲什麼會出現這樣的反差呢？一個主要原因就是稀缺性。私營企業並不是每天都會融資。如果想投資某傢俬營公司，風投資本一年也許只有一次機會。這些公司以往的大規模融資表明，激烈的競爭自然而然地會將這些少有的機會留給最有吸引力的企業。因此，在競爭中勝出的風投普遍都遵循這樣的邏輯：“雖然從基本面（或者由於缺乏基本面）來看，這筆投資現在看起來似乎是個不小的數目，但隨着這家公司的成長，其價值將大幅提升，因此這筆投資在將來可能會變得十分物有所值。”

Contrast this with public market investors who don’t face the same scarcity problem. There is a price every day for the shares of the companies in their universe. For public market investors, there is no scarcity, only a need to pick wisely and in a timely manner. As a result, valuations tend to make more sense based on current and near term future expected financial performance. Sure, there are expensive public stocks but, even for newly IPO’d companies with limited public floats, high multiples are driven by fairly broad-based demand versus a high price based on the winner of a scarcity auction.

與之相反，股市投資者不會遇到此類稀缺性問題。在他們的投資領域，公司股票每天都可以按一定的價格進行買賣。對這些投資者來說，不存在什麼稀缺性，他們需要的只是明智而及時地做出選擇。因此，上市股票的估值往往以現有業績和對短期財務表現的預期爲基礎，所以更加合理。當然，也有很貴的上市公司，但它們的高估值來自於相當廣泛的需求，就連剛剛首發上市，流動性有限的新股也是如此，這和贏得私營企業投資權的風投給出的高價完全不同。

2. Momentum

2. 市場動力

Another reason the magnitude and frequency of write ups hasn’t abated (and may be increasing) is that the strategy of overpaying in the scarcity auctions for the most attractive companies has generally paid off. As more capital has entered the high growth, venture-backed “asset class” (it’s really more of an asset niche), the dynamics have only intensified. So, each time an attractive company has opened its gates to new capital, the ensuing competition has driven valuations even higher for the winning bidder. Emboldened by these write-ups, existing players have stayed aggressive and more new capital has entered the system. The momentum has continued to build.

此類估值上升的幅度和頻率一直未見減弱（而且還有可能不斷增強）的另一個原因在於，當稀缺投資機會出現時，採用高報價策略一般都得到了回報。隨着更多資金涉足這個由風投支持的高增長“資產類別”（它真的已經超出了某一類資產的範疇），競相擡價的動力有增無減。因此，只要具有吸引力的公司開始融資，就一定會出現競爭，而在競爭中脫穎而出的風投就會把這些公司的估值提升到另一個新的水平。在更高的估值鼓舞之下，現有參與者已經變得十分激進，新的資金也不斷參與進來，市場動力愈發強勁。

3. Logos and FOMO

3. 商標至上和擔心坐失良機的心理

A third powerful driver of the current write-ups is the thirst for the best “logos.” As branding has become more important for VC firms, the desire to be associated with winning companies has intensified. In the long run, VC funds should be judged by the returns they generate. But, in the shorter run, success can be claimed by having investments in hot companies.

目前提升估值的第三大動力是對最佳“商標”的渴求。鑑於風投公司越來越重視品牌效應，因此，將自己與成功企業相關聯的意願也更加強烈。從長期來看，評判風投基金的標準應該是回報率。但在較短時間內，投資熱門公司也可以算是取得成功。

The best companies are attracting bids from firms that probably know they’re overpaying. In many cases, these firms believe they may not make a huge return on these investments, but being associated with great companies can be just as important as making a good return in certain circumstances. The current market momentum has ensured that this strategy hasn’t led to many high profile write-downs as of yet; buying logos has worked well — so well, in fact, that more and more firms want to play, not risking missing out on big winners such as Alibaba and Uber.

在向最優秀的企業提出報價時，風投公司很可能知道自己出價偏高。在很多情況下，它們都相信這樣的投資也許不會帶來鉅額回報。但在某些情況下，跟傑出企業掛鉤的重要性和實現高回報不分伯仲。目前，由於有市場環境的保駕護航，此類策略不會像以前那樣產生許多備受關注的估值下降案例。購買商標的做法可謂屢試不爽——實際上，其效果是如此之好，以至於越來越多的風投都想參與進來，他們可不願錯過像阿里巴巴集團和Uber這樣的出色企業。

What can we take from all of this?

對於所有這一切，我們能得出哪些結論呢？

In the short run, venture returns are looking very strong. How much of these returns, however, are paper gains versus true realizations? That’s a critical question.

短期內，風投回報率有望維持在高位。但在這些回報中，有多少是賬面收益，又有多少能真正實現呢？這纔是問題所在。

Paper gains have come but they can also go. Some firms have begun to quietly sell down some of their big winners, before IPOs. I suspect we may see even more of this activity as hot private companies see rapid price appreciation and continue to defer IPOs where prices will inevitably be lower.

賬面收益已經出現，但它們也會消失。部分風投已經開始悄悄地在IPO之前拋售某些成功企業的股份。我覺得這樣的行爲或許會增多，原因是在自身價格迅速上升的情況下，熱門私營企業會不斷推遲IPO，因爲其首發價將不可避免地低於當前估值。

While we’re in this market, entrepreneurs running popular companies should stay aggressive where warranted. In nearly all segments of technology, market leadership bestows disproportionately large (and in many cases non-linear) valuations. So, investing aggressively to stay ahead of the competition makes good sense. But have a back-up plan to live off of current cash. If the market turns, you’ll be glad to not have to raise another round in a tougher valuation environment!

身處這個市場，熱門公司的負責人應該在恰當的時候大膽一些。在幾乎所有的科技行業當中，市場領先位置帶來的估值會遠遠超過應有水平（許多情況下二者呈非線性關係）。因此，通過大膽投資保持市場領先地位是十分合理的舉措，但熱門公司負責人也要制定備選方案，以便讓公司能夠依靠現有的資金來維持運轉。一旦市場轉向，這些經營者將會感到慶幸，因爲他們不必在較爲不利的估值環境下再次籌集資金。