中国经济反弹推高全球碳排放量

Stronger Chinese economic growth will push global greenhouse gas emissions to a record high in 2017 after remaining flat for three years, dashing tentative hopes of a turning point in the world’s efforts to curb climate change.

更强劲的中国经济增长将使全球温室气体排放量在连续三年持平后在2017年创下历史新高，粉碎人们对于世界遏制气候变化的努力已经达到转折点的初步希望。

A new report by the Global Carbon Project, an international research consortium, predicts that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry will rise 2 per cent this year. The report was released at the UN climate change meeting in Bonn on Monday.

国际研究联盟“全球碳计划”(Global Carbon Project)的一份新报告预测，今年化石燃料和工业活动产生的二氧化碳排放量将增长2%。这份报告是周一在波恩举行的联合国气候变化会议上公布的。

The increase — which is largely caused by China and developing countries — suggests the world is straying further from the course set at the landmark UN conference in Paris two years ago. Countries agreed at the time to limit the rise in global temperatures to no more than 2oC from the pre-industrial era. But scientists warn that the emission reduction pledges made by individual governments since then do not go far enough to secure that overarching goal.

主要由中国和发展中国家造成的这一增长似乎表明，世界正在进一步偏离两年前在巴黎举行的具有里程碑意义的联合国会议上设定的路线。当时各国同意将全球升温幅度限制在不超过工业化之前水平2摄氏度的范围。但是科学家们警告称，自那以来各国政府作出的减排承诺不足以达到这个总体目标。

“Emissions are following what countries have pledged — but what countries have pledged is nowhere near enough to meet the Paris objective,” said Glen Peters, co-author of the report and research director at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo.

“排放量符合各国的承诺，但是各国作出的承诺远远不足以达到巴黎会议的目标，”报告联名作者、奥斯陆国际气候研究中心(Center for International Climate Research)研究主任戈兰?彼得斯(Glen Peters)表示。

This year’s rise is especially disappointing as it follows three years of almost no growth in emissions despite a world economy expanding at a steady clip. In 2016, emissions were flat even though the world economy grew 3.2 per cent. One explanation for the uptick is that China’s economic slowdown in the middle part of this decade was more pronounced than official figures suggested.

今年的排放量增长特别令人失望，因为此前三年尽管世界经济稳步扩张，但排放量几乎没有增长。2016年世界经济增长3.2%，而排放量持平。对排放增加的一个解释是，中国在本10年中期的经济放缓要比官方数字所显示的更为严重。

The GPC report concludes: “The world has not reached peak emissions yet.”

全球碳计划的报告得出结论认为：“世界尚未达到排放顶峰。”

It finds that carbon dioxide emissions decreased in 22 countries accounting for 20 per cent of global emissions, but rose in 101 countries that together represent 50 per cent of pollution. China is predicted to see a 3.5 per cent jump in emissions in 2017. As the biggest producer of carbon dioxide in the world, China plays a crucial role in shifting the global trend.

报告发现，占全球排放量20%的22个国家的二氧化碳排放量有所下降，而占污染总量50%的101个国家的二氧化碳排放量出现上升。预计中国2017年排放量将增加3.5%。作为世界最大的二氧化碳排放国，中国在改变全球趋势方面扮演着至关重要的角色。

Emissions began rising again in China this year, after the recovery in coal and steel prices last year heralded a more general economic revival.

今年中国的排放量又开始上升，此前煤炭和钢铁价格在去年出现反弹，预示了更为普遍的经济复苏。

The Chinese recovery follows a four-year economic slump lasting from 2012 to 2016 in the provinces of the coal-intensive North China plain, and the surrounding resource-rich regions including China’s coal-dependent neighbour to the north, Mongolia. Although the slowdown devastated Mongolia’s economy, it was generally not reflected in China’s official economic data.

此轮复苏出现之前，华北平原的煤炭大省，以及周边的资源丰富地区（包括依赖煤炭的邻国蒙古）在2012年至2016年经历了四年的经济低迷。这次低迷重创了蒙古经济，而从中国的官方经济数据基本上看不出低迷。

The Financial Times has called into question provincial data across northern China during the period. Beijing has acknowledged that data were faked or inaccurate from Liaoning, an industrial province in the north-east, but has not revised its statistics from other problematic provinces.

在那几年期间，英国《金融时报》曾对华北各省的数据提出质疑。北京方面现已承认东北工业大省辽宁的数据是虚报或不准确的，但没有修正其他有问题省份的统计数据。

The recent rise in China’s emissions adds weight to the idea that the officially unacknowledged economic slowdown translated into a flattening out of China’s carbon emissions, and therefore of the world’s. This is backed by flat or slightly lower production of coal, steel and cement during the period since 2012. Those industries contribute heavily to Chinese emissions of greenhouse gases.

近期中国排放量上升给一个观点增添了份量，即之前是官方从未承认的经济放缓使得中国乃至世界的碳排放量走平。2012年之后煤炭、钢铁和水泥产量持平或略微降低的情况支持这一观点。那些行业在相当大程度上加剧中国的温室气体排放。

Climate change negotiators had cheered the flattening of emissions, arguing that Chinese commitments to the Paris accord were responsible. However, the close correlation between Chinese emissions and economic activity in North China calls into question the argument that an authoritarian government can simply ordain improvement without outside oversight or the structural changes that reduce the incentives to pollute.

气候变化谈判代表曾为排放量走平叫好，辩称中国对巴黎协定的承诺是负责任的。然而，中国的排放量与华北地区经济活动之间的密切关联，令人质疑这样一个论点，即在没有外部监督、也没有推行减少污染诱因的结构性改变的情况下，一个威权政府能够就这么简单地下令实现好转。

As emissions output has increased, Beijing has launched an unprecedented round of inspections and shutdowns of polluting factories and steel mills in northern China.

随着排放量增加，北京方面已在华北地区发起空前的督查行动，关停污染严重的工厂和钢厂。

However, it has also bowed to the interests of its powerful coal industry by permitting heavily polluting coal conversion plants and switching some of its power generation capacity from coal to gas made from coal. This has the effect of spreading air pollution as well as unsustainably intensive water use from its wealthier eastern cities to its poorer inland and frontier provinces.

但是，官方也照顾强大的煤炭行业的利益，允许污染严重的煤转化工厂继续运行，并将一部分发电来源从煤炭转向煤制天然气。这产生了扩散空气污染的影响，并且把不可持续的大量用水的做法从东部较富裕的城市传播到较贫穷的内陆和边疆省份。

China’s commitment to the Paris accord anticipates that its emissions will continue to rise until about 2030, a projection derived from economic growth projections, the use of more hydropower dams and nuclear reactors, and assumptions that energy intensity will fall as the world’s largest economy matures.

根据中国对巴黎协定作出的承诺，中国的排放量将持续上升至2030年左右，这个预测基于经济增长预测、对更多水电站和核电站的使用，以及这样一个假设，即随着世界第二大经济体逐渐成熟，其能源强度将下降。