多哈冻产谈判失败之后 Oil and markets
It is not often that labour trumps capital. Opec ministers, together handling the taps for a third of the world’s oil supply, represent the capitalists. Traders had hoped that this group, meeting in Doha over the weekend, might begin to close the spigot. But no agreement to freeze production could be reached, let alone a decision to make cuts. Come Monday, oil fell, and stock markets followed suit.
劳方胜过资方的情况并不多见。石油输出国组织（Opec，简称欧佩克）成员国的石油部长们共同掌控着世界三分之一石油供给的龙头开关，他们代表资方。交易商们曾希望，上周末在多哈举行会议的欧佩克石油部长们或许会开始关闭龙头。然而，该会议没能达成任何冻结石油产量的协议，更不必说减产决定了。到了周一，油价下跌，股市也随之下跌。
More effective were the efforts of labour, in the shape of striking state oil workers in Kuwait, Opec’s number five producer. While Opec ministers failed to take a single barrel off the market, a dispute over public sector wages has led to a reported loss of half of Kuwait’s 3m barrels per day of production. Even if the strike does not last long, 1.5m barrels per day is a lot — close to the equivalent of the US Permian region’s shale oil output.
更有效的是劳方的努力，即欧佩克第5大产油国科威特的国有石油工人的罢工。欧佩克部长们一桶原油都未能从市场上拿掉，而据报道，公共部门薪资纠纷导致科威特每天300万桶的原油产量减半。就算这场罢工不会持续很久，每天150万桶原油也不是小数目——接近美国二叠纪盆地的页岩油日产量。
A knee-jerk reaction of equity prices to the outcome of the Doha meeting makes little sense. There is little evidence that oil prices and major stock indices, such as the S&P 500, move together. Share prices soared when oil trod water above $100 per barrel up to mid-2014, and then initially went higher after oil halved.
股价对多哈会议结果的本能反应没有什么道理。没有什么证据表明油价和标普500(S&P 500)等主要股指步调一致。油价直至2014年年中一直徘徊在每桶100美元以上，其间股价飙升，而油价腰斩后，股价最初还进一步走高。
What does correlate with oil prices (negatively) are credit defaults, 46 so far this year, according to Standard & Poor’s. Compare that with about 70 in all of 2009, when oil had fallen far more in a year. Many of these stem from highly indebted US oil explorers, such as Energy XXI, which is now seeking bankruptcy protection.
真正（负）相关的是油价和信用违约数量。根据标准普尔的数据，今年迄今已出现46起信用违约。相比之下，油价全年跌幅大得多的2009年出现的信用违约大约为70起。这些违约许多都来自于债台高筑的美国石油出口商，比如目前正寻求破产保护的能源XXI(Energy XXI)。
Banks that have directly lent to the energy companies are also twitchy. Wells Fargo and Bank of America, big lenders to the US energy sector, both upped their energy loan loss provisions in the first quarter. Both have slashed their exposure over the past year; taking more pain should be easier as the sector bet shrinks.
直接为能源公司提供贷款的银行也焦虑不安。美国能源业的大债主富国银行(Wells Fargo)和美国银行(Bank of America)第一季度都上调了能源贷款损失准备金。两家银行过去一年都削减了它们的敞口；随着押在这个行业上的赌注缩小，承受更大的损失应该会更容易。
Capital will triumph in the end, though. Oil prices, even after this year’s rebound, are still too low for comfort. European explorers depend even more on bank loans than on markets for capital. UK groups like Premier Oil and Tullow Oil will have to work ever harder to keep their lenders happy as the year goes on.
然而，资方最终会胜出。即使是在今年的反弹之后，油价依然低得难以让市场满意。欧洲出口商在筹集资金方面依赖银行甚于市场。第一石油(Premier Oil)、塔洛石油(Tullow Oil)等英国石油公司在今年剩余时间里必须更加努力，才能让它们的债主安心。
