全球變暖加劇 白色聖誕成奢望
Climate change may doom 'White Christmas'
The odds of a "white Christmas" in temperate parts of the northern hemisphere have diminished in the last century due to climate change and will likely decline further by 2100, climate and meteorology experts said.
Even though heavy snow this year will guarantee a white Christmas in many parts of Asia, Europe and North America, an 0.7-degree C rise in world temperatures since 1900 and projected bigger rises by 2100 suggest an inexorable trend.
"The probability of snow on the ground at Christmas is already lower than it was even 50 years ago but it will become an even greater rarity many places by the latter half of the century," said Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarber, climate researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
In the northern German city of Berlin, for instance, the chances of snow on the ground on Dec 24, 25 and 26 have fallen from 20 percent a century ago to approximately 15 percent in 2008, he said. By 2100 the odds will be less than 5 percent.
Berlin last had snow on the ground at Christmas in 2001, and even though the German capital is due a festive snowfall, from a statistical point of view, meteorologists say it will not be white in 2008 either.
In cities with more maritime climates, such as London, and mild continental climates like Paris, snow on Christmas is even now fairly rare and will only be a freak occurrence within 100 years, he said. No snow is expected in either city this year.
"The yearning for snow at Christmas seems to grow stronger the rarer it becomes," Gerstengarber said, noting cities at low altitudes such as Berlin (30 m above sea level) will probably almost never see snow surviving on the ground by 2100.
Betting on the fabled "white Christmas" is a pastime in some countries, like Britain, and oddsmakers will increasingly have to factor in global warming's impact, climate researchers said.
氣候和氣象專家日前稱，受氣候變化的影響，北半球溫帶地區的人們過“白色聖誕”的機會在過去一個世紀中越來越少，而且這個機會在2100年之前會進一步減少。
託下大雪的福，今年亞洲、歐洲和北美洲很多地區的人們能過一個“白色聖誕”了，但現實的狀況是，全球平均氣溫自1900年以來上升了0.7攝氏度，並將於2100年前出現更大幅度的上升，這一事實預示了一個可怕的趨勢。
德國波茨坦氣候影響研究所的氣候研究員Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarber說：“與50年前相比，踩着厚厚的積雪過聖誕的機會已經少了很多，到本世紀下半葉，這樣的聖誕節就更稀罕了。”
他舉了個例子說，在德國北部城市柏林，一年之中12月24日至26日這幾天的降雪概率已由一百年前的20%下降到了今年的15%左右。到了2100年，這一概率將不到5%。
柏林上一次的“白色聖誕”出現在2001年。儘管從統計學角度看，今年聖誕節柏林該下一場雪了，但氣象學家稱，今年還是別做指望了。
Gerstengarber說，在更具海洋性氣候特徵及溫帶大陸性氣候特徵的城市，如倫敦和巴黎，如今聖誕降雪更加罕見，並將成爲百年一遇的奇觀。據氣象預報，今年聖誕倫敦和巴黎也不會下雪。
他說：“聖誕節下雪越稀罕，人們就越渴望。”據他介紹，像柏林（海拔30米）這種海拔較低的城市在2100年以前可能基本看不到地面積雪了。
氣候研究人員稱，在英國等一些國家，打賭是否會出現傳說中的“白色聖誕”是人們生活中的一大樂趣。博彩公司以後也要越來越重視全球變暖的影響了。
Vocabulary:
inexorable: relentless（無情的；殘酷的）
due: expecting or ready for something as part of a normal course or sequence（該到的）
maritime climate:海洋性氣候
pastime:消遣；娛樂
