阿里巴巴IPO背後的華爾街神話故事

A friend who’s a major money manager—call him Oscar—recently related a story about just how intoxicating a big-Pop IPO can be. On a flight from LA to New York a few years ago, Oscar was seated across the aisle from the CFO of a California company that had just gone public. “It was fantastic!” crowed the executive, his volume rising as he downed one gin and tonic after another. “Our stock jumped 30% the first day! That’s tens of millions of dollars!” As they deplaned, Oscar remarked to the stumbling CFO, “Wouldn’t your company be worth a lot more if you’d put those tens of millions in your treasury, instead of giving that money away?” The CFO suddenly turned reflective, as if he’d never heard of that idea—though it’s unlikely the facts stopped his binge of self-congratulation for long.

我有一位朋友是一隻大型基金的經理人，讓我們姑且稱他爲奧斯卡。最近，奧斯卡給我講述了上市當天股價大幅上漲會是多麼的讓人激動。幾年前，在從洛杉磯飛往紐約的飛機上，奧斯卡和一家加州公司的CFO隔着通道相鄰而坐，後者的公司剛剛首發上市。這位CFO洋洋得意地說：“這真是妙極了！”隨着一杯又一杯的金湯力雞尾酒下肚，他的聲音越來越大：“上市頭一天我們的股票就漲了30%！那可是數千萬美元！”下飛機時，奧斯卡對這位已經步履蹣跚的CFO說：“如果你們把這幾千萬留爲己用而不是給了別人，你們公司的價值不就會高很多嗎？”聽了這句話，後者突然陷入沉思，就好像他從未聽到過這樣的說法——不過，估計過不了多久他就會繼續興高采烈地痛飲一番。

It now appears that BIG POP is working its intoxicating spell on Alibaba—soon to trade under the ticker. The road show for its forthcoming IPO is now in full swing, and its shares are reportedly proving a huge hit with institutional investors. Big fund managers, anticipating an overnight windfall, are reportedly requesting far more shares for their portfolios than Alibaba is selling at a price somewhere between $60 and $66 a share—the exact number will be determined on September 18, on the eve of its eagerly awaited debut.

現在，這個上市首日股價飆升的迷人咒語似乎要施加在阿里巴巴身上了——這家公司很快就會以BABA爲代碼在紐約上市。首發路演現已全面展開，而且據報道，阿里巴巴備受機構投資者追捧。媒體報道稱，寄望一夜暴富的大型基金經理人的申購數量已經遠遠超過阿里巴巴的發行規模，申購價格介於每股60-66美元。阿里巴巴將在9月18日定價，而第二天，這隻備受期待的股票就會登上紐約證交所的舞臺。

What appears to be growing excess demand for Alibaba stock is likely to cause what it always causes: a steep rise in the share price in the first days of trading. That pop is one of Wall Street’s prized events. The term evokes images of exploding champagne corks, a sign of flush times in the markets—and if you believe what Wall Street is selling, the hallmark of a Successful IPO.

阿里巴巴的股票供不應求，而且需求仍在增長——這種局面看來很可能像往常一樣產生一種效果，那就是上市第一天股價大漲。這樣的行情是華爾街的勝利時刻之一。在英語裏，用“Pop”這個詞來形容股價上漲會讓人聯想到一瓶瓶香檳開啓時的砰砰聲——這是市場繁榮的跡象。如果你相信華爾街的說法，也可以認爲它就是IPO大獲成功的標誌。

In reality, a big first-day pop means that the underwriters have sold the shares too cheaply, at far below the price those institutional buyers were really willing to pay. The major beneficiaries are the famous Wall Street names and their commission-paying clients; the loser is the company that raises far less cash than if its shares had sold at market prices. What’s remarkable is that so many great companies voluntarily leave so many billions “on the table.” And it’s amazing how many supposedly sophisticated entrepreneurs are conned by the prospect. Especially since Wall Street has only the weakest rationale for selling it: Pin-striped bankers promise that those first-day price surges will make for great “publicity” for the newbie companies, and attract a coterie of loyal investors.

但實際上，首日暴漲說明承銷商定的發行價過低，遠低於機構投資者願意接受的價格。這種情況下，主要的受益者是名號最響的華爾街投行以及向它們支付佣金的客戶；受損失的則是上市公司，因爲如果按市場價格首發，它籌集到的資金就會多得多。引人注意的是，如此之多的好公司都主動把數以十億計的美元作爲“小費留在了餐桌上”。而且，如此之多的本該經驗老道的企業家都被這種現象矇蔽了雙眼，這真是不可思議。特別要說的是，華爾街在解釋這一切時所用的依據簡直站不住腳——那些穿着條紋西裝的投行人士說，首發當天股價飆升會讓剛剛上市的公司獲得大量“人氣”，從而吸引一批忠實的投資者。

In reality, the only coterie it’s likely to attract is the crowd of celebrating bankers that night at Peter Luger’s.

而實際上，這隻會在首發當晚把一批投行人士吸引到Peter Luger牛排餐廳慶祝一番。

Successful newly public companies don’t always start with a pop. Facebook’s shares famously dropped in early trading, meaning it raised more cash than it deserved at its 2012 debut. And it’s not certain that Alibaba’s shares will pop at all, once all is said and done. But to hear the hype surrounding what is likely to be the biggest IPO in tech history, it sure likes like Wall Streeters expect it to. Should that be the case, the amount of money Alibaba could forgo—and the size of the prize for Wall Street—are unprecedented.

新上市的成功公司並不全都是在首發當天大幅上漲。Facebook上市之初股價下跌的情況衆所周知，這表明該公司在2012年IPO時籌集的資金超過了它本身的價值。當然，說到底阿里巴巴的股價不一定會在這一天飆升。但聽了這可能是科技行業有史以來最大規模首發的宣傳之後，誰都能感覺到這一定是華爾街人士希望出現這樣的局面。如果真是這樣的話，從阿里巴巴手中溜走的資金，或者說華爾街所賺取的利潤，將達到前所未有的水平。

To understand the jubilation among the fraternity of capital-markets types, let’s examine Alibaba’s plan, as revealed in its prospectus released on Sept. 5. The Chinese online and mobile commerce colossus is offering a maximum of 368 million shares for sale through six principal underwriters: Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank. If the shares sell at the top of the pricing range, at $66, the IPO would raise more than $24 billion, putting Alibaba’s market cap at $163 billion.

爲了瞭解資本市場從業者的“這場狂歡”，讓我們來看看阿里巴巴在9月5日公佈的招股說明書中披露的上市計劃。這家來自於中國的在線和移動商務巨擘計劃發行約3.68億股股票，主承銷商有6家：瑞信（Credit Suisse）、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）、摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）、花旗集團（Citigroup）和德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）。按詢價區間上限，也就是每股66美元計算，這次首發將爲阿里巴巴融資超過240億美元，使該公司的市值達到1630億美元。

So what happens if the company’s shares pop 25% on Day One? They would then close at $82.50, handing the institutions that purchased them through the underwriters a gain of $16.50 a share. If Alibaba and insiders had gotten that realmarket price instead of $66, they would have collected an additional $6 billion. That’s right: $6 billion. As far as tips go, that’s a staggering sum. (Any waiter at Peter Luger would be thrilled to get it.) But a tip is what it is—because that’s what’s being left on the table.

那麼，如果上市當天阿里巴巴的股價上漲25%，會出現什麼情況呢？它的收盤價將達到82.50美元，通過承銷商認購了該公司股票的機構每股將賺到16.50美元。如果阿里巴巴的管理層按這個真正的市場價格首發，他們就能多籌集60億美元資金。沒錯，60億美元。如果這就是“小費”的話，它的數量真是讓人乍舌（對此Peter Luger的服務員絕對會競相爭奪）。而小費就是小費——它只能留在餐桌上。

The losers would divide into two categories. Large shareholders including Yahoo! and founder Jack Ma are selling as many as 219 million shares, so their portion of the foregone cash comes to about $3.6 billion. The company itself is selling the balance of the shares. Hence, it’s leaving around $2.4 billion on the table. It’s reasonable to assume that the same company with $2.4 billion more in cash is worth $2.4 billion more than the same company sans that cash. It’s therefore likely that Alibaba would sacrifice about 1.5% of its potential market value by allowing its shares to be 25% underpriced.

受損失的可以分爲兩組。一是包括雅虎（Yahoo）在內的大股東和創始人馬雲。他們拿出了2.19億股股票，也就流失了約36億美元資金。二是阿里巴巴本身，該公司出售其餘待售股票，也就是說，它給的“小費”差不多有24億美元。可以認爲，如果一家公司手裏的資金多24億美元，它的價值就會上升24億美元。因此，阿里巴巴有可能因爲股價低估25%而犧牲1.5%的潛在市場價值。

So who are the major winners? No surprise here: the Wall Street firms and their high-roller clients who get to buy the underpriced shares. It’s not in banking fees where the big money resides. “The underwriters wanted higher fees but Chinese companies and those outside the U.S. pay less for a given sized deal,” says Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida. “This is also a high-profile deal that put Alibaba in a strong bargaining position.” The investment banks are garnering around $350 million in fees, or only around 1% of the proceeds, well below the norm on most IPOs.

那麼，誰是大贏家呢？答案並不意外——華爾街公司和它們下了大賭注的客戶，後者有機會買到了這些價格偏低的股票。帶來豐厚利潤的並非是承銷手續費。佛羅里達大學（University of Florida）的一位教授傑伊o裏特指出：“承銷商倒是希望拿到更多的手續費，但是和首發規模相比，來自於中國和其他地區的公司爲發行規模固定的IPO所支付的手續費偏低。同時，這次首發備受關注，這讓阿里巴巴在討價還價時處於很有利的位置。”這些投行通過這次首發將得到約3.5億美元的手續費，只佔阿里巴巴所籌資金的1%左右，遠低於大多數IPO的正常水平。

No the cash payout to the bankers travels in a more circuitous route. These fabled Wall Street firms are handing their favorite clients $6 billion in quick profits. That’s around 10% of the total amount left on the table in the entire tech boom from 1999 to 2001. Investors, in turn, are very likely to repay the firms with big trading commissions in the days and weeks to come. The biggest such payers tend to be hedge funds, so hedge funds usually get the meatiest share allocations. Mutual funds that pay low commissions have less favored status.

和把錢交到投行人士手裏相比，再沒有什麼付款過程能更加曲折迂迴了。這些煞有介事的華爾街公司讓自己所青睞的客戶迅速賺到了60億美元。這大約是1999-2001年整個科技熱潮期間華爾街所得“小費”的十分之一。隨後，投資者非常有可能在接下來的幾天乃至幾周時間裏通過高額交易佣金來回報這些公司。佣金給的最多的往往是對衝基金，因此可以推斷對衝基金的認購份額通常最大。支付佣金較低的共同基金則不那麼受投行歡迎。

The rule of thumb, says Ritter, is that Wall Street recoups 30% of the total windfall in commissions. That’s $1.8 billion. So including fees, Wall Street’s potential take mounts to well over $2.1 billion.

裏特說，一般來講，華爾街公司會通過佣金拿到總利潤的30%，也就是18億美元。再加上手續費，這些公司的利潤有可能遠高於21億美元。