年比特幣有望迅猛發展

It was not an auspicious start to the new year for bitcoin investors.

對比特幣投資者而言，新一年的開頭並不吉利。

Over the first weekend of 2015 the second-largest bitcoin exchange, Slovenia-based Bitstamp, was victim of a hack to the tune of some $5 million U.S. dollars’ worth of the digital currency. As the tech press were quick to point out, it was a worrisome start to the year for a digital currency that Quartz had already declared “the worst investment of 2014.” And if you look at its performance between Jan 1, 2014 and Jan. 1, 2015, that’s not wrong: bitcoin ended the year at 39% of the value it started with.

2015年首個週末，全球第二大比特幣交易所——位於斯洛文尼亞的Bitstamp遭到黑客襲擊，丟失了價值約500萬美元的比特幣。科技媒體很快指出，此事令數字貨幣比特幣2015年開局不利，財經新聞網站QUARTZ曾稱比特幣爲“2014年最糟糕的投資”。縱觀該數字貨幣2014年1月1日至2015年1月1日的表現，QUARTZ此言非虛：2014年底，比特幣的價值僅爲同年年初的39％。

In reality, bitcoin displayed major momentum in the last year as both a technology and a movement, and looks poised to convert more skeptics in the year to come. The metrics in a range of areas prove it: the number of bitcoin-related startups and jobs has boomed; the number of accepting institutions has bloomed; and activity among developers is greater than ever.

但事實上，作爲一項新技術以及新運動，比特幣在2014年表現出了猛烈的勢頭，而且在新的一年有望征服更多懷疑論者。諸多領域的指標證明了這一點：與比特幣相關的初創企業和就業崗位數量大增；接受比特幣的機構數量也大大增加；開發人員間的活動也較此前增強。

For starters, breaches like that of Bitstamp and the much larger (valued at about $400 million at the time) 2011 hack of the exchange Mt. Gox are often misconstrued as security issues with the currency itself. But they are only signs of flaws in those particular exchanges and not a sign of an issue with the underlying technology. And it is the underlying technology behind bitcoin that most excites. As we wrote in the “Shape the Future” package of our January 2015 issue, most of the vocal enthusiasts so bullish on bitcoin—from big-name entrepreneurs like Marc Andreessen to the developers and miners who spend their days refreshing the bitcoin Reddit page—are more interested in the applications that can be built on bitcoin’s “block chain,” the currency’s foundational backbone, than they are in bitcoin as a monetary system. The block chain allows the secure exchange of any form of value between two entities.

首先，Bitstamp遭遇黑客襲擊，以及2011年黑客襲擊比特幣交易平臺Mt. Gox（此次黑客襲擊要嚴重得多，其損失當時約合4億美元），往往被誤解爲比特幣本身存在安全問題。但事實上，這隻能表明上述比特幣交易平臺存在缺陷，而非比特幣技術本身存在問題。而最令人激動的，正是比特幣背後的底層技術。正如《財富》雜誌2015年1月刊《打造未來》系列報道中所寫，大部分極爲看好比特幣、爲其大聲疾呼的狂熱粉絲（包括馬克o安德森這樣的大牌企業家，也包括花大把時間更新比特幣REDDIT頁面的開發者和比特幣“礦工”），更感興趣的是能建立在比特幣“區塊”（該貨幣基本骨架）上的應用，而非比特幣貨幣體系。兩個實體間可通過“區塊”安全交換任何形式的價值。

One of the most discussed potential use cases of the block chain is as a decentralized Uber. Instead of using an app, customers could order a car and pay the driver directly, cutting out the middleman. (Sorry, Travis Kalanick.) The block chain can be utilized for everything from the storage of secure documents (that is, a decentralized Dropbox, too) to “watermarking,” in which a specific coin could contain, say, the deed to your house. “The block chain is going to spawn decades of innovation,” says Ryan Selkis, director of investments at the Digital Currency Group, created by former SecondMarket founder Barry Silbert. “It could lead to things like frictionless share issuance, title transfers, smart contracts. Collectively these things make up the backbone of the economy. If you wanted to create a decentralized Uber, Dropbox, Facebook, you could reinvent the Internet.”

比特幣區塊被討論得最多的一項潛在用途，是去中心化的打車服務“Uber”。客戶無需使用特定軟件，就能訂車並直接向司機付款，去掉中間商。（Uber創始人特拉維斯o卡蘭尼克，抱歉）區塊能用於各種用途，從儲存安全文件（去中心化的的Dropbox）到“水印”技術，水印技術是指某塊特定的比特幣能包含比如你房子的房契。Digital Currency Group投資主管賴安o希爾基斯表示：“區塊將催生數十年的創新。這可能催生零阻力股票發行、所有權轉讓以及智能合同。而上述事物共同構成了經濟的支柱。如果你想創建分散管理的優步、Dropbox以及Facebook，你可以重塑互聯網。”Digital Currency Group由前SecondMarket創始人巴里o希爾伯特創辦。

The block chain has such rich potential that there is an initiative underway to create additional “side chains,” though there is controversy around that idea. “We don’t really want to mess with the main block chain right now,” says Adam Ludwin, CEO of Chain, a block chain API that makes it easier to create bitcoin applications. “It works, we don’t want to break it.”

區塊潛力巨大，以至於目前出現了創建更多“側鏈”的倡議，儘管該想法存在爭議。Chain是一款使創建比特幣應用簡便化的應用程序接口，該公司首席執行官亞當o盧德溫表示：“我們目前並不想幹擾主區塊。主區塊運作良好，我們不想破壞它。”

For now, most of the activity around bitcoin is monetary in nature, so it makes sense that its critics point to volatility. Though the value of one bitcoin in U.S. dollars has fallen 67% in the past year, its value over the past two years is up 1,879%, according to the market price chart at . So whether it’s a good investment or a bad one is a matter of perspective.

目前，大部分圍繞比特幣的活動都是貨幣性的，因此，批評者指向其波動性也合乎情理。網站上的市場價格走勢圖顯示，儘管以美元衡量的比特幣價值在過去一年縮水了67％，其價值在過去兩年則飆升了1879％。因此，投資比特幣是好是壞，取決於你的視角。

In the meantime, the sheer total of bitcoin-related startups that launched in 2014 demonstrates bitcoin’s momentum. There is no definitive listing of every single bitcoin startup, but 2014 almost certainly saw the launch of more of them than in any year prior. Data that AngelList sent to Fortune confirms that. In 2011, five bitcoin startups listed themselves on AngelList. In 2012 that number grew to 13. In 2013 it jumped to 193, and last year it exploded to 566. (But not all startups register on AngelList immediately, if at all.) In addition, on January 8 the total number of daily bitcoin transactions hit an all-time high, as Barry Silbert eagerly tweeted.

同時，大批與比特幣相關的創業公司於2014年創建，表明比特幣勢頭強勁。我們沒有比特幣新創企業的詳盡名單，但幾乎可以肯定的是，2014年成立的比特幣新創企業的數量，高於此前任何年份。融資平臺AngelList發給《財富》的數據證實了這一點。2011年，5家比特幣初創公司在AngelList上登記。2012年，這個數字增加到13家；2013年躍升至193家；2014年更是暴增至566家。【但並非所有創業公司都會（立即）在AngelList上登記。】此外，正如巴里o希爾伯特在推特上所言，1月8日，比特幣日交易總量創下歷史新高。

Developer activity is also at a fever pitch. According to the contributor graph at GitHub, the total number of contributions to bitcoin’s master code in November was the highest it had been since spring 2012. Bitcoin is also the 31st “most forked repository” on GitHub—”forks” are basically proposed or in-progress alterations to core code—out of more than 900,000. In other words, for developers, bitcoin is trending. The number of open jobs currently posted at bitcoin companies also underscores developer interest: it’s at 105, which is close to the all-time high in September of 137, according to Bitcoin Pulse, which monitors such trends.

開發活動也處於白熱化。GitHub網站上的貢獻者圖標顯示，2014年11月，對比特幣主碼的貢獻總量處於2012年春季以來的最高值。此外，就被“分叉”的次數而言，比特幣在GitHub上90多萬儲存庫中名列第31位，“分叉”基本是指提議或正在對核心代碼進行的改動。換言之，對於開發者來說，比特幣風頭正勁。比特幣公司目前公佈的空缺職位的數量，也突顯了開發者的興趣。跟蹤該趨勢的Bitcoin Pulse稱，如今，此類空缺職位數高達105個，接近九月137個的歷史最高值。

Academics appear to be more interested in the cryptocurrency than ever before. There were 190 white papers published on bitcoin in 2014, up from 55 in 2013. Authors—amateur or otherwise—have also flocked to bitcoin: Amazon lists 437 books about or involving the term “bitcoin” published in 2014, compared to 143 in 2013. (That is based on a subject search, and thus includes less hard-hitting titles like Bitcoin Bimbo 3: Undercover Cop Science Fiction Erotica.) And sports fans this year may not have been able to ignore the inaugural Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl, a college football playoff game between North Carolina State and the University of Central Florida. ESPN quickly convertedBitPay’s $500,000 rights fee for the game into U.S. dollars.

學者們對比特幣的興趣似乎也是前所未有的高漲。有190本關於比特幣的白皮書在2014年發表，就在2013年，還只有55本。業餘和專業作者們也紛紛爲比特幣著書立傳：亞馬遜列出了437本2014年出版的關於或涉及“比特幣”的書籍，相比之下，2013年該數字爲143本。【這是基於主題搜索的結果，因而其中包括《Bitcoin Bimbo 3:臥底警察科幻色情作品》（Bitcoin Bimbo 3: Undercover Cop Science Fiction Erotica）這種不大相干的結果】今年，體育迷們應該都注意到了首屆比特幣聖彼得堡碗比賽，這是北卡羅萊納州立大學與中佛羅里達大學間的高校橄欖球季後賽。ESPN電視臺迅速將BitPay以比特幣形式支付的50萬美元特許權費兌成了美元。

Another indicator of bitcoin’s momentum is the number of mainstream businesses that accept it. In 2014, Microsoft MSFT -0.84% , PayPal, Dell, and Dish Network DISH 2.24% , among many others, announced they would accept bitcoin as payment for a range of products. Those companies joined companies such as Target (which accepts Gyft, which can be purchased with bitcoin), , and WordPress. Even the publisher of Fortune, Time Inc. TIME -0.40% ,began accepting the cryptocurrency for magazine subscriptions. Yahoo YHOO -1.02% also added bitcoin to its Yahoo Finance tracking site last year, lending the currency additional legitimacy, and Google Finance GOOG -1.30% quickly followed suit. “Adoption of bitcoin is becoming more commonplace, and we feel it is relevant to our industry and to our users,” a Yahoo spokesperson told CoinDesk. Don’t be at all surprised if Yahoo soon goes even bigger on bitcoin—whether by acquiring a bitcoin startup or some other announcement—as part of CEO Marissa Mayer’s ongoing effort to make the stalling search giant more hip.

比特幣發展勢頭強勁的另一個指標是，接受比特幣的主流企業數量增加。2014年，微軟、貝寶、戴爾以及Dish Network等企業宣佈，自身一系列產品接受比特幣付款。此前已有塔吉特（該公司接受能以比特幣購買的Gyft）、以及WordPress等公司接受比特幣。就連《財富》出版商——時代公司，也開始接受比特幣雜誌訂閱。去年，雅虎還將比特幣加入其雅虎財經跟蹤網站，令比特幣更顯正統。谷歌財經也很快依樣畫葫蘆。雅虎發言人向CoinDesk網站表示：“接受比特幣越來越普遍，我們覺得這與我們行業、我們用戶切身相關。”假如雅虎很快更大力押寶比特幣——不論是收購比特幣新創企業，還是宣佈其他動作——都別太驚訝，因爲雅虎首席執行官瑪麗莎o梅耶爾正努力使這家止步不前的搜索巨頭變得更時髦。

Rafael Corrales, a partner at Charles River Ventures, believes that the growth in a wide range of fields—from academia to infrastructure to policy—is a sign that 2014 was the biggest year bitcoin has had yet, despite its volatility. “In the short-term, that’s an easy knock from people who don’t understand or believe it can be something,” he says. “It’s the easiest thing for them to go after. In that transition stage, you’re going to have extreme volatility, so looking at its value over one year is kind of silly.” As for occasional hacks, he adds, “There are going to be bumps in the short term, but they’ll be solved sooner than later. And these things are being addressed by a huge community of people. So you have to be really excited, despite small bumps.”

Charles River Ventures合夥人拉斐爾o科拉萊斯認爲，學術界、基礎設施以及政策等諸多領域的發展，表明2014年是迄今對比特幣而言最重要的一年，儘管在此期間比特幣波動很大。科拉萊斯表示：“短期而言，那些不懂或不相信比特幣大有可爲的人很容易攻擊這一點。他們批評這一點再容易不過了。在過渡階段，肯定會有劇烈震盪，所以只看一年的價值波動是愚蠢的。”對於偶爾出現的黑客襲擊，科拉萊斯補充道：“短期內肯定會有顛簸，但問題很快就會迎刃而解。而且有一個龐大團體正致力於解決這些問題。因此，儘管存在小的顛簸，你應當對此感到興奮不已。”

To be sure, that excitement can certainly lead to unrealistic declarations from those in the community. Some bitcoin developers and investors proclaim that within five years, all the major banks will be accepting bitcoin. That’s a stretch, acknowledges Peter Smith, COO of the bitcoin wallet Blockchain (not to be confused with the actual bitcoin block chain). “I hear a lot of predictions about how soon the whole world will be using bitcoin, and most of the time, those are unrealistic,” he says. “What we’re trying to do as an ecosystem is incredibly audacious, so it’s going to take a lot of time.”

的確，這種興奮會導致上述團體的成員做出不切實際的聲明。一些比特幣開發者和投資者宣稱，五年內，各大銀行將接受比特幣。比特幣錢包Blockchain公司首席運營官彼得o史密斯承認，上述說法有些誇張。史密斯表示：“我聽到很多預測稱，很快全世界都將使用比特幣，這些預測大都不現實。我們正試圖做的，是一個相當大膽的生態系統，所以這將需要很長的時間。”

How much time? And to what extent will bitcoin, in seeking wide adoption as a currency and as a protocol for new applications, face the hurdle of mainstream consumers’ lack of understanding? Adam Ludwin suggests that people don’t need to understand how the technology works to appreciate it. “It has the quality of early Internet,” he says. “People don’t actually know anything about how it works, but they don’t need to know, or care. They just know they turn their computer on and can check email.”

這將需要多長時間？比特幣要成爲被廣泛採用的貨幣以及新應用的協議，將在多大程度上面臨主流消費者缺乏瞭解的障礙？亞當o盧德溫表示，人們在欣賞比特幣時無需理解該技術的工作原理。盧德溫說：“它有些類似早期的互聯網。人們實際上完全不懂其工作原理，但他們也不需要懂，他們對此也不關心。他們只知道自己打開電腦就能查看電子郵件。”

As for bitcoin in the mainstream banking system? “We are still a good year away, in our estimation, from where you can imagine a known financial services company using this,” Ludwin says. “But it’s not 10 years. And when it happens, people will be surprised by how quickly it spreads.”

至於說比特幣進入主流銀行體系？盧德溫表示：“據我們估計，現在距離知名金融服務公司採用比特幣，還有很長的路要走。但是用不了10年那麼久。而且一旦出現萌芽，其推廣的速度之快將令人震驚。”（財富中文網）