德國強勁增長帶來歐元區樂觀情緒

Optimism that Europe’s economy might finally be turning a corner was fuelled on Friday by stronger-than-expected growth data from Germany and encouraging signals from the wider eurozone.

週五，德國強於預期的增長數據和整個歐元區釋放出的令人鼓舞的信號，增強了歐洲經濟可能終於轉危爲安的樂觀情緒。

The figures, for economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year, sent stock markets higher, despite lingering concerns about the potential impact of a showdown between Greece and its creditors over the country’s international bailout.

儘管外界依然擔心希臘及其債權人在國際紓困計劃上攤牌可能造成的影響，但去年第4季度的經濟增長數據推動了股市上揚。

Cheaper oil, a weaker euro and a landmark sovereign bond-buying programme by the European Central bank have stoked expectations that the eurozone will this year record its strongest annual growth since 2010.

油價下跌、歐元走弱，以及歐洲央行(ECB)提出的具有里程碑意義的國債購買計劃，都激起了今年歐元區將經歷自2010年以來最強勁的年度增長的期望。

The figures released on Friday confirmed Germany’s role as Europe’s powerhouse. Its economy expanded 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter — well ahead of analysts’ expectations of 0.3 per cent growth.

週五的數據確認了德國作爲歐洲經濟引擎的地位，去年第4季度增長了0.7%，遠超分析師們預計的0.3%。

Data from Eurostat, the European Commissions’ statistics bureau, showed that the broader eurozone saw growth of 0.3 per cent — higher than the 0.2 per cent recorded in the previous three months and also ahead of forecasts.

歐盟委員會(European Commission)的統計機構——歐盟統計局(Eurostat)的數據表明，去年第4季度，整個歐元區的經濟增長率爲0.3%，超過第3季度的0.2%，而且也好於預期。

This boosted hopes that the region’s recovery might be gathering pace. It has suffered years of near-stagnation and remains smaller than before the global financial crisis, growing by only 0.9 per cent in 2014. But last month, the commission upgraded its forecast for eurozone growth for this year to 1.3 per cent, suggesting the outlook was finally improving.

這增強了人們對於歐元區正在加速復甦的期待。歐元區多年深陷經濟近乎停滯的境地，經濟規模仍小於全球金融危機爆發之前，2014年僅增長0.9%。但上月，歐盟委員會將歐元區2015年增長預測上調至1.3%，似乎表明歐元區的前景終於開始好轉。

“The euro area recovery appears in better shape than expected,” said Thomas Harjes, an economist at Barclays.

“歐元區的復甦情況似乎比預期更好，”巴克萊(Barclays)的經濟學家托馬斯•哈吉斯(Thomas Harjes)表示。

However, the picture is not consistently positive. France eked out quarterly growth of just 0.1 per cent, while Italy stagnated and Greece’s economy contracted 0.2 per cent, after three successive quarters of expansion.

然而，歐元區內部的情況並非都是積極的。去年第4季度，法國經濟增長率僅爲0.1%，意大利經濟陷於停滯，希臘經濟繼連續三個季度增長後，第4季度收縮了0.2%

The Xetra Dax, Frankfurt’s main equities index, broke through 11,000 for the first time in response to the gross domestic product numbers, before closing at a record high of 10,970.3 — up 0.5 per cent on the day.

國內生產總值(GDP)數據發佈後，德國主要股指Xetra Dax首次突破11000點，最終收於創紀錄的10970.3點，當日上漲0.5%。

Meanwhile, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 0.7 per cent to 1,503, its highest level since early 2008.

同時，富時Eurofirst 300指數(FTSE Eurofirst 300)上漲0.7%，至1503點，達到自2008年初以來的最高水平。

US stocks were also on track to reach record highs, with the S&P up 0.26 per cent at 2093.96 in mid-session. Investors were cheered by a generally positive earnings season, as well as easing geopolitical concerns over Ukraine following the signing of a ceasefire in Minsk this week.

美股也有望創歷史新高，午盤時分，標普(S&P)上漲0.26%，至2093.96點。總體積極的財報季，以及本週簽署明斯克停火協議所帶來的地緣政治憂慮的緩和，都讓投資者感到振奮。

In Germany, unemployment — at post-reunification lows of 6.5 per cent — has helped lift domestic demand, with households increasing their spending “markedly” in the fourth quarter, the country’s Federal Statistics Office said on Friday.

德國的失業率降至6.5%，達到自兩德統一以來的低點，這幫助提升了國內需求，德國聯邦統計局(Federal Statistics Office)表示，第4季度德國家庭的支出“顯著”上升。

German companies were beginning to make substantial investments again, with spending on machinery and equipment rising, notably in the construction sector.

德國企業又開始進行大筆投資，對機器和設備和支出上升，尤其是在建築業。

The eurozone’s largest economy has grown by an impressive 1.6 per cent over the past year, compared with 0.4 per cent for France.

作爲歐元區最大經濟體，去年德國經濟增長率達到了可觀的1.6%，而法國僅爲0.4%。

“It appears [German] consumers are fully spending the windfall gains from lower oil prices, and better investment activity underlines that firms are growing more confident that better domestic and global demand conditions are going to be sustained,” said Mr Harjes.

巴克萊的哈吉斯表示：“（德國）消費者似乎充分使用了油價下跌帶來的意外收益，投資活動的好轉突顯出企業信心正在增強，相信更好的國內和國際需求環境將持續下去。”

Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, said: “The usual suspect [for the strong figure] is the unusually mild winter weather in December, especially as the statisticians hinted to a strong increase in construction spending. But even if the number was slightly lower, fourth-quarter growth would still look quite strong.”

德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)首席經濟學家約爾格•克拉默(Jörg Krämer)表示：“（強勁的經濟數據）的明顯原因之一是12月不尋常的暖冬天氣，尤其是統計學家暗示建築支出強勁增長。但就算數據略低，第4季度的增長也會看上去相當強勁。”

The German economy had started off last year strongly, before growth petered out over the second and third quarters. Exports and confidence were hampered by the crisis in Ukraine as western governments slapped sanctions on Russian companies and individuals.

去年初，德國經濟增長強勁，而在第2和第3季度，增長勢頭逐漸減弱。烏克蘭危機導致西方政府向俄羅斯企業和個人實施制裁，進而影響了出口和市場信心。

Friday’s data come as President François Hollande’s Socialist government in France is attempting to pass a number of business-friendly reforms to return the eurozone’s second-largest economy to higher growth.

週五數據發佈之際，法國總統弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)領導的社會黨政府正試圖推動通過多項利於商業發展的改革，使歐元區第二大經濟體恢復更高增長。

The reforms, contained in a package before parliament, include measures to relax Sunday shop opening hours, open up regulated professions, and allow competition for long¬-distance bus routes.

改革計劃包含在提交議會討論的一攬子計劃中，其中包括放寬商店週日營業時間、放開受監管的職業，以及放開長途巴士市場、引入競爭等措施。

Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis Asset Management in Paris, said that while internal demand contributed to growth, investment by households and companies fell.

巴黎Natixis資產管理公司(Natixis Asset Management)首席經濟學家菲利普•韋希特爾(Philippe Waechter)稱，儘管內需推動了增長，但家庭和企業投資均出現下滑。

“We are not confident about investment — this is the main weakness,” he said.

“我們對投資沒有信心——這是主要的疲軟點，”他稱。

toItaly’s economy contracted 0.4 per cent for the whole of 2014, but the Bank of Italy is forecasting GDP growth of at least 0.5 per cent for this year and at least 1.5 per cent in 2016, on the back of a weaker euro, which it expects to boost exports. It also expects the ECB’s bond-buying programme, combined with lower oil prices, to help consumption.

2014年全年意大利經濟萎縮了0.4%，但是意大利央行(Bank of Italy)預計，在歐元貶值的推動下，出口預計將受到提振，今年GDP增長至少0.5%，2016年至少增長1.5%。該央行還預計，歐洲央行的債券購買計劃，加上油價下滑的影響，將有助於消費。

But hopes of a recovery in the Italian economy have been dashed on several occasions in recent years, so many economists are waiting for stronger evidence to declare a shift in the cycle.

但是，最近幾年意大利經濟復甦的希望已經破滅過多次，很多經濟學家都在等待更有力的證據來宣告週期轉折。

With additional reporting by Adam Thomson in Paris, James Politi in Rome and Duncan Robinson

亞當•湯姆森(Adam Thomson)巴黎、詹姆斯•波利提(James Politi)羅馬和鄧肯•羅賓遜(Duncan Robinson)補充報道