人民幣納入SDR的障礙 China seeks confirmation of renminbi’s arrival on world stage

If, 20 or 30 years from now, central banks and sovereign wealth funds hold a significant portion of their reserves in renminbi-denominated assets, financial historians will probably look back on 2015 as a turning point.

如果二、三十年後，各國央行和主權財富基金持有的外匯儲備中相當大一部分是人民幣計價資產，金融史學家在回首往事時，很可能將2015年視爲拐點。

The International Monetary Fund is engaged in a year-long review of the currency composition of its special drawing rights (SDR), with a final decision expected between November and early 2016. The currencies now included in the SDR “basket” are from the world’s most influential economies: dollars, euros, yen and sterling.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)正對特別提款權(SDR)的貨幣組成進行爲期一年的評估，預計在今年11月至2016年初之間做出最終決定。現在被納入SDR“籃子”的貨幣來自全球最具影響力的經濟體，這四種貨幣是：美元、歐元、日元和英鎊。

If the fund decides to add the renminbi to the SDR basket, it will amount to an assurance to global central banks by the world’s foremost financial technocrats that renminbi assets are safe.

如果IMF決定將人民幣納入SDR貨幣籃子，那就相當於是全球最有分量的金融技術官員向各國央行保證，人民幣資產是安全的。

For China, inclusion in the SDR would symbolise the arrival of its currency on the world stage alongside those of the world’s richest countries. National leaders would see it as a formal recognition of China’s increased influence in the global economy and the reforms it has taken to integrate itself with the global financial system.

對中國而言，人民幣納入SDR將象徵着本國貨幣登上世界舞臺，和全球最富裕國家的貨幣躋身同一行列。國家領導人將會認爲，這是對中國在全球經濟中影響力上升以及中國融入全球金融體系的改革的正式認可。

“SDR inclusion could be interpreted as international recognition of China’s increased economic importance and role in global financial markets,” says Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席中國經濟學家朱海斌表示：“將人民幣納入SDR可能被解讀爲，國際社會承認中國的經濟重要性及其在全球金融市場中的地位上升。”

The practical impact of SDR inclusion is almost negligible. The IMF created SDRs in 1969 to respond to a global shortage in viable reserve assets under the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. But Bretton Woods collapsed less than a decade later and today various currencies not included in SDRs, such as the Swiss franc and Australian dollar, are also widely held as reserves.

將人民幣納入SDR的實際影響幾乎可以忽略不計。IMF在1969年創造了SDR，目的是應對在固定匯率的佈雷頓森林體系下全球可用儲備資產匱乏的局面。但佈雷頓森林體系之後不到十年就解體了，如今許多沒有被納入SDR的貨幣，比如瑞士法郎和澳元，也被普遍用作儲備貨幣。

“While it appears to be a contentious issue, the Rmb’s inclusion in the SDR has little tangible and immediate economic benefit for China. The SDR is rarely used by the global financial markets and no country would manage foreign exchange reserves modelled by the SDR,” says Li-Gang Liu, chief greater China economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group.

澳新銀行(ANZ Bank)大中華區經濟研究總監劉利剛表示：“儘管這似乎是一個有爭議的問題，但人民幣納入SDR基本上不會爲中國帶來切實和直接的經濟利益。SDR很少在全球金融市場中使用，任何國家都不會管理基於SDR的外匯儲備。”

But inclusion into this elite club would have real-world consequences. Every IMF member holds at least some SDRs. Thus, the inclusion of the renminbi would mean that these countries would suddenly be holding renminbi, albeit indirectly. With that threshold crossed, central bank renminbi holdings could be poised to increase rapidly.

但人民幣加入這一精英俱樂部將有現實意義。IMF所有成員國都至少持有一些SDR。因此，將人民幣納入SDR將意味着，這些國家將會突然開始持有人民幣，儘管是間接地持有。隨着跨過這個門檻，各國央行持有的人民幣數量可能迅速增加。

Though there is no formal application process to join the SDR basket, China has clearly stated its desire to be included as a result of the five-yearly review now under way.

儘管還沒有正式開始申請加入SDR，但中國已經明確表示，希望IMF在其正在進行的五年一次的評估中納入人民幣。

The two main criteria for a currency’s inclusion in the SDR basket is that the issuing country be a significant exporting nation and that the currency itself be “freely usable”.

將一種貨幣納入SDR有兩個主要標準：貨幣發行國必須是大型出口國，而且貨幣本身必須“可以自由使用”。

Wei Yao, China economist at Société Générale who assesses the renminbi’s chances of inclusion at about 50 per cent, says: “China, as the biggest exporter in the world, passes the first test with flying colours. It is more debatable whether the renminbi meets the second criterion.”

法國興業銀行(Société Générale)中國經濟學家姚偉表示：“作爲全球最大的出口國，中國完全符合第一個標準。更具爭議性的是，人民幣是否符合第二個標準。”姚偉認爲人民幣被納入SDR的可能性在50%左右。

The main sticking point is Chinese capital controls, which severely restrict the ability to buy and sell renminbi for investment purposes. Progress on so-called capital-account convertibility will be an important factor in the IMF’s decision.

主要癥結在於中國的資本管制措施，這極大地限制了外資出於投資目的買賣人民幣的能力。資本賬戶可兌換計劃的進展將是影響IMF決定的一個重要因素。

The launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect last November marked an important step towards allowing freer cross-border flows of renminbi — known as capital-account liberalisation. But the programme is still subject to a quota that caps foreign investment to a tiny fraction of overall market capitalisation.

去年11月推出的“滬港通”機制標誌着中國向允許人民幣更自由跨境流動（這被稱爲資本賬戶自由化）方向邁出了重要一步。但“滬港通”仍有配額限制，從而使得外國投資僅佔中國股市整體市值的一小部分。

Access to the bond market is an even greater obstacle, as bonds are the favoured assets for central bank reserve managers. China took an important step towards free usability in July, however, when it announced that central banks and sovereign wealth funds no longer needed preapproval to buy into the domestic bond market. But non-official investors such as mutual funds and individuals remain subject to quota and licensing restrictions.

更大的障礙是債券市場的准入問題，因爲債券是央行儲備資產管理者青睞的資產。不過今年7月中國宣佈，外國央行和主權財富基金進入中國債券市場不再需要經過預先批准，從而向人民幣自由使用邁出了重要的一步。但共同基金和個人等非官方投資者依然需要取得配額和牌照。

“The announcement shows that the PBoC’s determination for capital-account liberalisation has not been deterred by the stock market volatility...慍渀攙 that the central bank is still promoting the renminbi’s inclusion in the IMF’s SDR basket during its next review,” said Jianguang Shen, China economist at Mizuho Securities Asia.

瑞穗證券亞洲(Mizuho Securities Asia)的中國經濟學家沈建光表示：“該聲明表明，中國人民銀行(PBoC)實現資本賬戶自由化的決心沒有被股市波動嚇阻……央行仍將推動IMF在其下次評估期間將人民幣納入SDR。”

The IMF has never adopted specific metrics to determine whether a currency is “freely usable”, giving the fund’s executive board considerable flexibility. However, unofficial IMF working papers suggest that the fund considers whether the renminbi is, in fact, widely used for financial transactions at least as important as what regulations appear to permit or forbid.

IMF從未就一國貨幣是否屬於“自由使用”出臺明確標準，從而給予其執行委員會極大的靈活性。然而，IMF的非正式工作報告表明，在IMF看來，人民幣事實上是否廣泛應用於金融交易，至少與監管法規看上去允許或禁止的內容一樣重要。

“Capital-account convertibility is not a precondition for SDR inclusion. For instance, the yen was included in the SDR basket in 1973, but Japan liberalised international capital flows only in 1980.”

“資本賬戶可兌換不是納入SDR的先決條件。例如，日元在1973年被納入SDR，但日本在1980年才允許國際資本自由流動”。

In this regard, the fact that 60 central banks already hold renminbi among their reserves, according to Standard Chartered estimates, is likely to be viewed as an important indicator of usability. But it remains unclear how the IMF will interpret the fact that many of these central bank reserves are held in offshore renminbi assets, which are not subject to Chinese regulations.

就此而言，據渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)估計，已經有60家央行在外匯儲備中持有人民幣，這可能被視爲判斷人民幣使用的廣泛程度的重要指標。但這些央行的人民幣儲備中有許多是離岸人民幣資產——這些離岸人民幣不受中國的監管——目前尚不清楚IMF對此怎麼看。

Many obstacles remain to the currency being “freely usable”. Individuals are still subject to a $50,000 per year limit on converting renminbi to foreign currency and vice versa. China plans to roll out a pilot programme for individual outbound investment this year, but it will still be subject to quotas.

讓人民幣成爲“自由使用”的貨幣依然存在許多障礙。個人將人民幣兌換爲外幣依然存在每年5萬美元的限制，反之亦然。中國計劃在今年啓動個人對外投資的試點項目，但仍會有配額的限制。

Ultimately, analysts expect political considerations to play an important role. If the fund refuses entry to China, it could deepen the Chinese leadership’s distrust of institutions such as the IMF, World Bank and G20, which it already views as unfairly dominated by the west.

最終而言，分析師預計政治考量將是一個關鍵因素。如果IMF拒絕將人民幣納入SDR，就可能加深中國領導人對IMF、世界銀行(World Bank)和20國集團(G20)等機構的不信任——中國已經認爲西方在這些機構中不公平地佔據着主導地位。

On the other hand, the US is likely to argue that the SDR is an important lever that can be used to incentivise China to quicken financial reform. IMF president Christine Lagarde has said that the renminbi’s inclusion is a “matter of when, not if”. That has led many observers to expect a compromise in which the fund will formally declare its intention to add the renminbi to the SDR — but only once deregulation proceeds a bit further.

另一方面，美國可能認爲，SDR是可以用來刺激中國加快金融改革的重要工具。IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，人民幣納入SDR是“何時納入的問題、而非是否納入的問題”。這讓許多觀察家預計將會出現妥協局面——IMF將會正式宣佈打算將人民幣納入SDR，但前提是中國進一步解除管制。