現在到了世界末日交易了嗎

Is it time for the end of the world trade?

現在到了世界末日交易了嗎？

In other words, is it time for fund managers to buy ultra-safe assets — the so-called end of the world trades — as the election of Donald Trump as US president heralds a new and highly uncertain period for investors?

換句話說，現在是基金經理購買超級安全資產（所謂的世界末日交易）的時候嗎？因爲唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統給投資者帶來一段高度不確定的新時期？

Despite a boost to US stocks on expectations of Trump tax cuts and infrastructure spending, fund managers may be entering a period of extreme instability as a Populist backlash threatens to create havoc with the markets.

儘管對特朗普減稅以及基礎設施支出的預期提振了美國股市，但基金經理們可能正進入一個極度不穩定時期，其間民粹主義反彈可能會震盪市場。

Lightning is not supposed to strike twice. But after the Brexit poll in June and Mr Trump’s victory last week, there is a danger that other populist electoral bolts from the blue will rock the world over the coming months.

閃電不應該兩次擊中同一個地方。但在今年6月的英國退歐公投和特朗普最近當選美國總統後，危險在於，其他突如其來的民粹主義投票結果將在未來幾個月震撼世界。

The Italian government faces the prospect of a reverse in a constitutional referendum next month, National Front leader Marine Le Pen could win the French presidency next year, while Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, could be deposed in her country’s elections, also next year. Populist victories in any of these polls will represent not just a political sea change, but an oceanic upheaval.

意大利政府下月將面臨被憲法公投趕下臺的可能性。國民陣線(National Front)領袖馬琳.勒龐(Marine Le Pen)可能會贏得明年的法國總統大選。德國總理安格拉.默克爾(Angela Merkel)可能會在該國明年大選中被趕下臺。民粹主義勢力在這些選舉中的勝利不僅代表着政治劇變，而且代表着翻天覆地的全方位變化。

So does it make sense to plump for safety trades, rather than bank on the so-called Trump reflation trade that has boosted US stocks?

那麼選擇安全交易（而不是指望近期提振了美國股指的特朗普通貨再膨脹交易）是否合理？

UK government bonds, particularly at the short end of the curve, could offer a good store of value. Gains in the gilts market have reversed over the past few weeks, making them more attractive.

英國政府債券（尤其是期限較短的）可能提供很好的保值手段。過去幾周，英國金邊債券市場的上漲趨勢已逆轉，這讓它們顯得更具吸引力。

There is also logic in buying sterling at low levels, as these UK assets have what some investors are describing as first-mover advantage. They have already taken their hit from the UK’s vote to leave the EU in June.

以低價買入英鎊也有道理，這些英國資產具備某些投資者所稱的先行者優勢。英國在今年6月投票脫離歐盟已讓它們遭受打擊。

Gold is another haven trade, particularly with some investors arguing that Mr Trump’s policies may be inflationary. Gold is considered a good hedge against inflation and uncertainty.

黃金是另一種避險交易，特別是一些投資者辯稱，特朗普的政策可能會引發通脹。黃金被視爲對抗通脹和不確定性的良好避險工具。

With Mr Trump and other governments keen to use infrastructure investment as a way to boost their economies as monetary policy runs out of steam, stocks that benefit from this type of spending would make obvious trades in the equity markets.

隨着貨幣政策逐漸失去效力，特朗普和其他國家的政府希望利用基礎設施投資來刺激經濟，獲益於此類支出的股票將成爲股市中的明顯買入對象。

The possible reflation trade from Mr Trump’s victory is interesting. It shows the playbook in the wake of his election may not be the same as the one after Brexit.

特朗普成功當選可能帶來的通貨再膨脹交易很有意思。這表明，他當選後的股市操盤對策可能與英國退歐後不同。

If Mr Trump does implement his pledges on infrastructure, then that should help economic growth, not weigh on it as Brexit has done. Another factor that may help growth is the increasing likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will delay rate rises. Markets have scaled back expectations for rate increases in December.

如果特朗普果真兌現其基建承諾，那應該有利於經濟增長，而不是像英國退歐那樣令經濟承壓。另一個可能有利於經濟增長的因素是美聯儲(Fed)推遲加息的可能性越來越大。市場已降低對美聯儲12月加息的預期。

This should restrain the dollar, which may be reaching its ceiling, even if the Fed tightens. This would be positive for emerging markets.

這應該會制約美元匯率（美元匯率可能正接近峯值）——即便美聯儲收緊也是如此。這將對新興市場有利。

However, Mr Trump’s rhetoric and his actions may be very different. He could face opposition from Congress in terms of what he might like to do on infrastructure spending and tax cuts. Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, is a fiscal conservative, who will probably act as a constraint on Mr Trump and his plans.

然而，特朗普可能會言行不一。在基建支出和減稅方面，他希望採取的行動可能會遭遇國會反對。衆議院議長、共和黨人保羅.瑞安(Paul Ryan)是個財政保守派，他很可能會牽制特朗普及其計劃。

The other important factor is international trade. If Mr Trump commits himself to even half of what he has promised in terms of protecting the US and American workers’ jobs from overseas competition, then world trade and the US economy is likely to suffer.

另外一個重要因素是國際貿易。如果特朗普在保護美國和美國勞動者就業不受海外競爭影響方面哪怕只兌現了一半的承諾，世界貿易和美國經濟也很可能會受損。

But, crucially, Mr Trump and Brexit may be the populist canaries in the coal mine. If the Italian referendum and French and German elections are overwhelmed by a wave of populist anger and resentment, then the whole EU project may be thrown into grave doubt, as well as the US economy.

然而，重要的是，特朗普和英國退歐可能是在煤礦中發出民粹主義警報的金絲雀。如果意大利憲法公投以及法國和德國大選被民粹主義憤怒和憎恨的浪潮所吞噬，那麼整個歐盟一體化項目可能受到嚴重質疑，美國經濟也是如此。

That really would leave fund managers with little choice but to play it safe with clients’ investments. When Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, assets across the board went into reverse, with very few exceptions. If that is repeated in the event of a growing populist backlash, the so-called end of the world trade may be limited to buying short-dated Treasury bills and cash — and little else.

那將真的會讓基金經理幾乎毫無選擇，只能安全處置客戶的投資。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)在2008年倒閉後，各類資產全面逆轉方向，幾乎無一例外。如果這種情況在民粹主義反彈加劇時再度出現，那麼所謂的世界末日交易可能僅限於購買短期美國國債和現金，幾乎沒有其他資產值得擁有。