融創買主題公園爲拿地

Sunac’s theme park deal is a land grab, not a compliment to Mickey Mouse. Much has happened in the two weeks since the developer announced it would buy a slew of stakes from rival Dalian Wanda. On Tuesday, Sunac said that it would raise HK$4.03bn ($516m) from a share sale to “optimise the capital structure”. This will do little to restrain soaring debt. But nor is it a sign of distress.

融創(Sunac)的主題公園交易是爲了搶地，而不是“向米老鼠致敬”。自從這家開發商宣佈將從對手大連萬達(Dalian Wanda)購買大量股份以來，兩週時間裏發生了很多事情。週二，融創中國表示將增發新股募集40.3億港元（合5.16億美元）以“優化資本結構”。此舉對抑制不斷高漲的債務並無太大幫助，但也不是財務緊張的徵兆。

Sunac is a home builder. It needs land to build on. Project acquisitions are an important source of growth, given that the Chinese government started tightening the supply of housing in 2014. New land sales dropped by a third in the subsequent two years, according to Citi. The measures were successful: The average time of stock in inventory declined from 25 to nine months in key cities as a result.

融創是一家住宅開發商，它需要土地來蓋房子。項目收購現在成了增長的重要來源，因爲中國政府在2014年開始收緊住房供應。據花旗集團(Citi)數據，新地銷售在隨後兩年下降了三分之一。官方舉措取得了成功，重點城市房屋庫存平均去化週期從25個月降至9個月。

The theme parks come with a land bank of roughly 50m square meters, a 70 per cent boost to Sunac’s sellable area before the deal. A third developer, Guangzhou R&F will buy the hotels that were part of the initial deal — they do not come with land to sell. In this latest iteration of the deal, Sunac pays Rmb43bn ($6.5bn) and takes on Rmb15bn in net debt. That adds up to a price tag of Rmb1,200 per square metre. Finished projects sell to home buyers at multiples of that.

此次主題公園交易帶來約5000萬平方米的土地儲備，融創可售土地面積比交易前增長了70%。第三家開發商廣州富力地產(Guangzhou R&F Properties)將購買初始交易中的酒店部分，這部分不帶有可售土地。在最新版本的交易中，融創將支付438億元人民幣（合65億美元），並揹負150億元人民幣淨債務，爲每平方米土地貼上了高達1200元人民幣的價籤。出售給購房者的成品房價格將是這一價格的好多倍。

Sunac had Rmb70bn in cash at the end of the year and reported 90 per cent growth of contracted sales for the first half of 2017. Annual sales have more than doubled to Rmb151bn. Paying for the acquisition is not problematic. Net debt will jump by roughly Rmb60bn to Rmb120bn. Leverage will probably be high but new debt should be compared with the potential value of the inventory.

2016年底時，融創賬面上有700億元人民幣現金，此外據報道2017年上半年其合同銷售增長了90%。融創2016年的年銷售額達到1510億元人民幣，同比增長了一倍多。支付此次收購毫無問題。其淨債務大概將劇增600億元人民幣，至1200億元人民幣。槓桿率可能會很高，但看待新債務應與庫存的潛在價值進行比較。

Citi estimates that the residential area sold in China peaked in 2016 and market share of the top 10 developers will double to two-fifths in the four years to 2020. Sunac’s financial profile will remain risky — the increase to its Rmb35bn shareholders’ equity will not give much comfort to investors. But the deal gives the Tianjin-based developer a chance to compete in China’s consolidating property market. It should be welcomed.

花旗估計，2016年中國住宅銷售面積達到高峯，至2020年十大開發商的市場份額將在這四年內翻一番，達到五分之二。融創的財務狀況將繼續處於高風險中，股東權益在350億元人民幣的基礎上增加也不會給投資者帶來多少安慰。但該交易讓這家天津開發商有機會在中國趨於整合的房地產市場上競爭，應受到歡迎。