中國正尋求增加原油定價權

China is increasingly central to world trade in crude oil. But the No. 2 consumer of crude - 11.4% of the global total last year according to BP PLC figures - is frustrated it doesn't have a bigger role in a key aspect of the trade: the commodity futures trading that dictates market prices.

中國在世界原油貿易中的地位越來越重要。英國石油公司(BP PLC)的數據顯示，去年中國的原油消費量佔全世界總消費量的11.4%。作爲世界第二大原油消費國，中國卻未能在原油期貨交易方面扮演更重要的角色，它爲此感到沮喪。期貨交易是原油交易的重要方面，起着決定市場價格的作用。

Beijing hopes to change that as it seeks what authorities call pricing power. China's government has said for some time it plans to launch trading in crude oil futures, the commodity derivative contracts used to set benchmark prices for oil. Authorities recently indicated the contracts could be launched as soon as this year. Beijing hopes they will compete with the West Texas Intermediate futures traded in New York and London's Brent futures.

中國政府希望能獲得它所說的"定價權"，從而改變這一現狀。中國政府一段時間以來一直表示，計劃推出原油期貨。原油期貨這種大宗商品衍生合約起着確定石油基準價格的作用。中國政府最近表示，中國的原油期貨合約最快將在今年推出。北京希望其能夠與紐約的西得克薩斯中質油油期貨(West Texas Intermediate futures)和倫敦的布倫特原油期貨(Brent futures)相競爭。

A top China Securities Regulatory Commission official on Saturday kept the talk alive. "Even now, crude oil is fully geared up," said Peng Junheng, the commission's deputy director of futures. Mr. Peng, who was speaking on the final day of Shanghai's Liujiazui Forum, offered no timetable.

中國證券監督管理委員會的一位高級官員上週六談論了這一話題。在上海陸家嘴論壇的最後一天，證監會期貨監管一部副主任彭俊衡表示，原油期貨正在做準備工作。他沒有提供中國推出這一期貨的具體時間安排。

He and other speakers on a panel about commodities made clear the reason China is eager to pursue crude oil futures trading: pricing power. "A lot of work has to be done before we become a price setter for the world, which is our goal," according to Mr. Peng's translated comments.

在陸家嘴論壇一個關於大宗商品的小組討論會上，彭俊衡和其他與會者闡述了中國急需開展原油期貨交易的原因：定價權。彭俊衡說，在成爲國際定價中心之前我們還有很多工作要做，成爲全球定價中心是我們的目標。

The worry in China is that traders in other markets who may have little appreciation for economic dynamics in China dictate what China pays for commodities.

中國擔心其他市場的交易者來決定中國爲大宗商品支付的價格，而這些交易者可能對中國的經濟動態沒有什麼瞭解。

That has become a major issue amid a surge in commodity prices over the past decade. To provide a recognized Chinese price for commodities, authorities have worked hard to build credible commodity futures markets. There are now 28 products traded on the country's markets. Trading volume has surged over the years, with a particularly important contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange in copper a metal sometimes described as an economic bellwether.

過去10年裏，由於大宗商品價格的上漲，由外國交易商來爲中國決定大宗商品價格的局面已經成了中國面臨的一個重要問題。爲了能給大宗商品提供一種得到市場認可的中國價格，中國政府一直在努力建立可信賴的大宗商品期貨市場。目前在中國市場上交易的商品期貨共有28種，交易額在過去幾年不斷攀升，其中在上海期貨交易所交易的銅期貨合約在國際市場尤其具有重要地位。銅期貨交易經常被稱作經濟的風向標。

Still, the markets have limits. To protect Beijing's ability to control its currency, China's futures markets are virtually closed to outsiders and its domestic traders don't have easy access to international markets. Speculation from individual traders is rife. That makes its contracts less than credible as the global price for the agricultural, energy and metals products trade in China.

儘管如此，中國的期貨市場仍然存在種種限制。爲了保護中國政府對人民幣匯率的控制，中國的期貨市場實際上是不對外開放的，國內的交易員也不太容易進入國際市場，個人交易者投機現象盛行。這使得中國期貨市場無法獲得農業、能源和金屬領域大宗商品的全球定價權。

None of this was lost of the panelists Saturday, and several agreed that the more China's currency system is relaxed, the more credible its commodity markets will become.

上週六的討論涉及了上述所有問題。幾位參加小組討論的人士一致認爲，中國對人民幣匯率的控制越放鬆，中國的大宗商品市場就越值得信賴。

"The price that is found in the domestic market does not reflect global demand, aside from copper," said Zhao Lei, president of Citic Newedge Futures Co., speaking about commodity futures in general. "That's why China has hardly determined the price."

中信新際期貨公司(Citic Newedge Futures Co.)董事長趙磊在談到大宗商品期貨時說，目前在我們期貨市場上產生的價格，除了剛纔提到的銅以外，大多數還不具有國際代表性。也就是說，我們在定價權方面一直落後於國際市場。

Mr. Zhao cited a "price determination ratio" for China in crude oil of 9%, meaning that 91% of the price of oil is set by market forces unrelated to China. He said the figure came from research he had read and was unable to provide more details. But his point was echoed by other panelists, who said China doesn't have enough power with pricing.

趙磊提到了中國對石油的定價權只有9%，這意味着91%的石油價格由與中國無關的市場力量決定。他說，這個數字是一個研究報告裏面得來的，他未能提供任何細節。但是他的觀點得到了其他與會人士的認可，他們表示，中國沒有足夠的定價權。

Where once China worried about how it would actually find supplies of commodities around the world to satisfy its people and growing economy, said Ma Wensheng, chairman of Xinhu Futures Co., the risk today is price. "When the oil futures launch China will gradually increase its influence in the oil price setting, and I'm also confident this will help boost the Chinese economy," said Mr. Ma.

新湖期貨公司(Xinhu Futures Co.)董事長馬文勝說，中國原油的安全問題不再是供給不足，問題是市場上的價格風險。馬文勝說，隨着中國推出原油期貨，中國將逐漸增加在石油定價方面的影響力，相信這也有助於促進中國經濟的發展。