非洲赤道叢林中的剛果大電站之夢

On a wooden stake planted in Africa’s equatorial forest, a small hand-painted sign reads: “Here will be erected the water intake of the Inga 6 power plant.”

在非洲赤道地區的森林裏，有一個木樁上一個手寫的小牌子寫着：“因加(Inga)6號電站入水口。”

The hopeful claim refers to the latest plan to realise one of Africa’s largest and longest stalled white elephants: Grand Inga, the world’s biggest hydropower dam, not far from where the river Congo meets the sea.

這句充滿希望的標語指的是完成大因加(Grand Inga)水電站項目的最新計劃，這是非洲規模最大、拖延時間最長的大型項目之一，也將成爲全世界最大的水電站，距離剛果河入海口不遠。

Located in the far western extreme of the DeMocratic Republic of Congo, several dams and hydropower plants would deliver 42,000 megawatts, nearly twice the size of the world’s largest power station, the Three Gorges Dam in China. If built, it would double the electricity production capacity of Africa and resolve what Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, calls Africa’s “Energy apartheid”.

大因加項目的地址位於剛果民主共和國的最西端，由多座大壩和水電站構成，裝機容量將達4.2萬兆瓦，接近目前世界第一大水電站中國三峽(Three Gorges Dam)的兩倍。如果建成，它將讓非洲的發電能力翻一番，解決世界銀行(WB)行長金墉(Jim Yong Kim)所說的非洲“能源隔離”(energy apartheid)問題。

Grand Inga has for decades been the stuff of dreams. Now, say its World Bank backers, it is the stuff of cogent plans. One sign of Grand Inga’s growing momentum is that it has prompted an unprecedented offer from China to work alongside the US to finance big infrastructure projects in Africa.

數十年來，大因加水壩項目一直是個可望不可及的夢想。如今，世界銀行支持這一項目建設的人說，這已經成爲一項切實可行的計劃。一個積極跡象是，中國史無前例地提出，願與美國一道，爲非洲大型基建項目提供資金。

“Energy is the development of a country,” says Richard Kapia Boshinga, director of Snel, the state power company, standing on a narrow bridge at the Inga rapids. “It’s got to work.”

站在因加河湍急的水流上方一座狹窄的小橋上，剛果國家電力公司(Snel)負責人理查德•卡皮亞•博欣加(Richard Kapia Boshinga)說：“能源關乎一個國家的發展。必須成功。”

Still, the project faces obstacles as great as its dimensions. Even if Washington and Beijing opt to collaborate, it remains hostage to shaky financing. It is also beset by opposition from environmental groups, poor management and the uncertainties of working in one of the world’s least developed and most corrupt countries.

不過，這個項目面臨的困難跟其規模一樣大。即便華盛頓和北京方面選擇合作，項目的資金情況仍不確定。此外還有環保團體的反對、管理水平低下、以及在一個極不發達且極爲腐敗的國家開展項目所帶來的不確定性等諸多困難。

“We think the whole project will cost more than $50bn, but who will invest money like that in Congo?” says Albert Mbafumoya, a senior adviser in the prime minister’s office.

剛果總理辦公室高級顧問艾伯特•姆巴福摩雅(Albert Mbafumoya)說：“我們預計整個項目將耗資逾500億美元，但誰會在剛果投那麼多錢？”

Two dams – Inga 1 and Inga 2 – already exist but are in a sorry state. Conceived by Belgian colonialists and built more than 30 years ago under dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, five of their 14 turbines no longer turn, producing only 1,000MW for a country the size of western Europe.

因加1號和2號兩座水壩已建成，但狀況不佳。這兩座水壩由比利時殖民主義者設計，30多年前在獨裁者蒙博託•塞塞•塞科(Mobutu Sese Seko)主政下建成，如今14部渦輪機有5部已經壞掉了，發電量僅爲1000兆瓦，而剛果的面積與西歐相當。

The lack of power is hurting miners in the Katanga region of southern Congo, where some facilities are losing the equivalent of a month of annual production from blackouts.

電力不足對剛果南部加丹加省的礦業企業造成很大影響，由於經常停電，一些礦廠一年下來相當於停工一個月。

Many previous efforts to develop the site, where the river’s broad brown waters narrow to little more than 100 metres after gushing down over 15km of rapids, have all stalled. But Congo has this time adopted a plan that some financiers believe might work: a seven-phase effort to build Grand Inga in increments.

人們曾多次試圖開發因加河段的水力資源——15公里的湍急河段、寬闊的褐色河面，在這裏陡然縮窄下落，落差達100多米。這一次，剛果採取了一種一些出資方相信可能成功的方案：分7個階段，漸進式建設大因加水壩。

The incremental approach might lessen the objections of environmentalists, who warn of loss of species and agricultural land to coastal erosion and releases of methane gas. The smaller pieces would also be less daunting to finance, starting with Inga 3, which would cost $12bn and deliver 4,800MW.

漸進式方法或許會減輕環保主義者的反對，他們警告稱，水壩的建設會導致物種滅絕、河岸退後侵蝕農地、甲烷釋放。分階段建設可能也會減輕融資壓力，首先需要融資的因加3號水電站預計將耗資120億美元，裝機容量達4800兆瓦。

The government in Kinshasa hopes the World Bank and the regional African Development Bank among others will commit a quarter of the funds. That still leaves nearly $9bn to come from other sources, including the US, China and the private sector.

剛果政府希望，世行和非洲開發銀行(African Development Bank)等能承擔四分之一的資金。即便如此，還有近90億美元的資金缺口，需要從美國、中國和私營領域等來源取得。

Jan Walliser, an official at the World Bank, says the third phase of Inga looks feasible. But he cautions: “Private investors will not step in until enough electricity can be sold to creditworthy customers – which is why exports to South Africa and sales to the mining sector have to be looked at to make it a viable investment.”

世行官員揚•瓦利澤爾(Jan Walliser)表示，因加3號水電站工程看上去可行。但他謹慎地指出：“在能夠將足夠多的電賣給有信譽的客戶之前，私人投資者不會入場。所以必須觀察水電站向南非和礦商銷售電力的情況，以判斷投資是否可行。”

South Africa last year agreed to purchase 2,500MW from Inga 3 as well as a chunk of subsequent stages. Kinshasa also hopes the domestic mining sector will take 1,300MW and the rest of Congo another 1,000MW. But Congo has a poor record in paying its electricity bills, making it difficult to raise money for a project that cannot guarantee payback.

南非去年同意從因加3號水電站購買2500兆瓦的電，並同意從後續幾個階段建設的水電站購買相當大一部分電力。此外，剛果政府希望國內採礦業將吸收1300兆瓦，其餘行業再吸收1000兆瓦。但在剛果，電費賬單經常被賴掉，這種情況使得人們很難爲一個無法確保回報的項目融資。

After years of delay, mining companies are applying plasters to the existing infrastructure rather than waiting for Inga 3.

在多年的拖延之後，採礦企業正在對現有的基礎設施修修補補，而不是等待因加3號水電站建成。

Glencore, the miner-cum-trader that has several big projects in Katanga and its partners are lending $368m out of its own pocket to rehabilitate the turbines of Inga 2 as a way to increase electricity production.

礦商兼貿易商嘉能可(Glencore)在加丹加省有多個大型項目，它的合作伙伴們將自掏腰包提供3.68億美元貸款，修復因加2號水電站停轉的渦輪機，以增加發電量。

Freeport-McMoRan, which has a $3bn copper and cobalt mine in Katanga, is lending Snel $220m to build a smaller local power plant. “Future expansion will be dependent on our ability to get incremental power, and reliable power,” says Bill Harris, the mine’s president.

自由港麥克莫蘭公司(Freeport-McMoRan)在加丹加省有一座價值30億美元的銅鈷礦，它即將向剛果國家電力公司提供2.2億美元貸款，以建設一座小型的地方電廠。該礦總裁比爾•哈里斯(Bill Harris)說：“未來的擴張將取決於我們能否獲得更多穩定的電力供應。”

Moïse Katumbi, the governor of Katanga, agrees. He estimates miners could be digging 1.5m tonnes of copper a year right now, up from the current 990,000 tonnes, were it not for the power shortages. “The problem for Inga,” he says, “is that the project took so long.”

加丹加省省長莫伊茲•卡通比(Moïse Katumbi)表示認同。據他估算，要不是受到電力短缺的影響，銅的年產量可能不止現在的99萬噸，而可能達到150萬噸。“因加的問題在於，”他說，“這個項目花了這麼長時間。”