埃克森美孚 北美將成爲能源淨出口地
North America is likely to be a net exporter of liquid fuels in the next decade, as production grows while demand in the US and Canada stagnates, according to ExxonMobil, the world’s largest listed oil company.
全球最大的上市石油公司埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)表示，隨着北美產量增長，而美國和加拿大需求停滯，北美可能在未來十年成爲液態燃料的淨出口地。
It is the first time the company has made the forecast, following an upward revision of its expectations for North America’s oil production as a result of the boom in shale oil from formations such as the Bakken of North Dakota and the Eagle Ford of south Texas.
這是埃克森美孚首次做出上述預測。此前由於北達科他州的巴肯頁岩(Bakken Shale)和得克薩斯州南部的鷹福特(Eagle Ford)等區塊的頁岩油產量大幅增長，該公司上調了對北美石油產量的預測。Exxon predicted in its latest annual Energy outlook, published yesterday, that exports of oil and related liquids from the US, Canada and Mexico would exceed imports after around 2020, thanks to rising output of shale oil, heavy crude from Canada’s oil sands, and natural gas liquids such as ethane.
埃克森美孚在昨日發佈的最新年度能源前景展望中預測，得益於頁岩油、從加拿大油砂提煉的重質原油以及乙烷等天然氣液的產量增長，美國、加拿大和墨西哥的石油和相關液態燃料出口將在2020年左右之後超過進口。
It reflects the company’s argument that tight US restrictions on foreign sales of crude oil, in place since the 1970s, will have to be eased.
這反映出該公司的一個觀點，即美國將不得不放鬆自上世紀70年代出臺的針對原油出口的嚴格限制。Bill Colton, vice-president of strategic planning, said economic logic pointed to US crude exports being liberalised in the next few years, and if the government blocked those sales it would hold back growth of North American production.
埃克森美孚負責企業戰略規劃的副總裁比爾•科爾頓(Bill Colton)表示，從經濟邏輯來看，美國將在今後幾年放開原油出口限制，因爲如果美國政府阻止這些出口銷售，就會抑制北美產量的增長。Exxon also predicted restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions that would have the same impact as a price on emitted carbon dioxide of about $80 a tonne in the US and the EU and about $40 a tonne in China by 2040.
埃克森美孚還預計將有限制溫室氣體排放的措施出臺，其效果將相當於對二氧化碳排放收費——到2040年在美國和歐盟相當於每噸收費約80美元，中國每噸約40美元。It expects global carbon dioxide emissions to peak around 2030 and decline 5 per cent over the following 10 years, as coal is replaced for power generation by gas, nuclear and renewable energy.
該公司預計，隨着煤炭發電被天然氣、核能和可再生能源發電代替，全球二氧化碳排放將在2030年左右達到峯值，並在隨後的十年裏下降5%。The principal theme is that demand for energy, including oil, has peaked in developed countries, but will continue to rise strongly in emerging economies as the “global middle class” grows from about 2bn to about 5bn people.
該公司的主要觀點是，包括石油在內的能源需求在發達國家已達到峯值，但隨着“全球中產階級”數量從大約20億人增長至大約50億人，能源需求在新興經濟體仍會繼續強勁增長。Energy efficiency improvements are expected to curb demand as the world economy grows: Exxon expects there will be twice as many cars in the world in 2040, but they will use only the same amount of petrol and diesel because they will be twice as fuel-efficient.
能效改善有望遏制能源需求隨着世界經濟增長而增長：埃克森美孚預計到2040年全球汽車數量將會增長一倍，但由於能效提高一倍，它們的汽油和柴油使用量不變。Demand is expected to rise, however, for other types of transport, particularly road freight, and Exxon expects the world to be using 115m barrels of oil per day in 2040, up from 89m b/d last year.
然而，預計其他運輸方式（特別是公路貨運）的需求將會增長，埃克森美孚預測全球在2040年的原油使用量爲1.15億桶/日，而去年是8900萬桶/日。Environmental groups criticised the forecasts for reflecting policy objectives. Exxon said their main use is as a framework for its investment decisions.
環保集團批評這些預測反映政策目標。埃克森美孚表示，它們的主要用途是作爲其投資決策框架。
