阿迪達斯須開源節流 Adidas go faster stripes

The margin between victory and defeat on the sports field is often narrow. For German sportswear group Adidas, narrow margins are a problem off the field, too. Back in 2010, its business plan called for operating margins of 11 per cent by 2015. Full-year published on Thursday showed them at 6.5 per cent. Kasper Rorsted, who takes over as chief executive later this year, has plenty to do.

在運動場上，勝利和失敗之間的差距往往很小。對德國運動品牌阿迪達斯(Adidas)來說，運動場外的利潤率太窄也是個問題。2010年，該品牌的商業計劃要求到2015年實現11%的營業利潤率。本週四發佈的全年業績報告顯示實際只達到6.5%。將於今年晚些時候出任該公司首席執行官的羅思德(Kasper Rorsted)有好多工作要做。

An obvious first Move would be to sell the golf division, TaylorMade adidas-Golf, whose sales fell 13 per cent (at unchanged exchanges rates) during 2015. Its future is already under review; based on the valuation of US-listed Callaway, TaylorMade could fetch perhaps 800m. However, while there are plenty of valid reasons to sell TaylorMade, it is only 5 per cent of sales so the effect of a disposal on margins would be limited. Selling Reebok, another underperformer, would have more impact, but Reebok’s sales and profits are at least growing and it is more integral to the group.

第一步顯然是出售其高爾夫用具子公司——阿迪達斯泰勒梅(TaylorMade)高爾夫，其在2015年期間銷售下跌了13%（按不變匯率計算）。其未來已經受到評估；基於在美國上市的高爾夫球具公司卡拉威(Callaway)的估值，泰勒梅應該能賣得8億歐元。然而，雖然有足夠多的正當理由出售泰勒梅，但它只佔阿迪達斯銷售的5%，所以處置這塊業務對利潤率的影響有限。出售另一個業績表現不佳的業務部門銳步(Reebok)效果會更大，但銳步的銷售和利潤至少還在增長，而且跟整個集團更不可分。

More durable results would come from cutting running costs. Gross margins at Adidas are similar to US rivals but at the operating level margins are lower. Assuming that its higher marketing spend (14 per cent of sales) is sacrosanct, that leaves about 4.9bn of other costs. Adidas says they will fall this year. They need to: they were 29 per cent of sales in 2015, compared with 22 per cent at Nike.

更加耐久的結果將來自削減運營成本。阿迪達斯的毛利潤率跟美國同行相似，但運營層面的利潤率更低。假設其較高的營銷支出（相當於銷售的14%）神聖不可侵犯，那就只能對餘下的大約49億歐元其他成本動手。阿迪達斯稱這部分成本今年將會下降。它們必須得減少：它們相當於2015年銷售的29%，而耐克(Nike)的這個比例是22%。

Another long-term problem lurks in Mr Rorsted’s in-tray: North America. The rate of sales growth there last year was half that of Latin America and a third of European and Chinese levels. Profit fell two-fifths and Adidas has lost its number two spot in the US, the world’s biggest market, to Under Armour.

羅思德還面對另一個長期隱患：北美市場。去年那裏的銷售增長是拉美市場的一半，歐洲和中國市場的三分之一。利潤下跌了五分之二，而且阿迪達斯在世界第一大市場美國被Under Armour奪去了第二大的位置。

The bad news is that the sheer size of the US market means Adidas would need to take a lot of market share in places like China to offset continued attrition in the US. The good news is that operational gearing means small improvements in sales there would provide a strong boost to profit.

壞消息是，美國市場的龐大規模意味着，阿迪達斯可能需要在中國這樣的地方奪得大量市場份額，才能抵消它在美國不斷失去的地盤。好消息是，經營槓桿意味着，即使是小幅的銷售好轉也能強有力地提振利潤。

Mr Rorsted’s labours will be made easier by Adidas’s forecast 10 to 12 per cent sales growth this year (helped by major sporting events). But his record has not gone unnoticed. Since his appointment was announced, Adidas shares have risen 18 per cent, beating the Dax, and the valuation gap with Nike has narrowed. Two activist investors have been given supervisory board seats. No pressure, then.

今年阿迪達斯的銷售增長預期爲10%-12%（得益於大型體育盛會），這讓羅思德的活兒輕鬆了些。但他的職業記錄並未被市場錯過。自從他上任的消息公佈以來，阿迪達斯的股價已上漲了18%，跑贏Dax指數，跟耐克之間的估值差距也縮小了。兩名維權投資人獲得監事會席位。看來沒什麼壓力了。