嘗試向燃煤說再見 沒那麼容易

It won’t be easy to get rid of coal.

要擺脫煤炭沒有那麼容易。

Worried the nation might miss its 2020 target to drastically cut emissions of carbon dioxide, the German government proposed a steep levy last year on the most heavily polluting generators.

因爲擔心德國達不到2020年大幅削減二氧化碳排放的目標，該國政府曾在去年提議對污染最嚴重的發電廠徵收高額稅費。

The tax was intended to deliver a decisive blow against lignite or brown coal, the dirtiest fuel around and Germany’s main source of electricity.

此舉意在給褐煤決定性的一擊。褐煤是這裏最不清潔的燃料，也是德國電力的主要來源。

Germany views itself as a leader in the push against climate change.

德國自認爲是推動氣候變化方面的領導者。

It is probably the world’s most enthusiastic investor in renewable Energy, mainly wind and sun.

它可能是世界上最熱心於投資可再生能源的國家，主要發展風能和太陽能。

But even the powerful Chancellor Angela Merkel couldn’t quite pull it off.

但就連強悍的德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)也沒能完全實現上述提議。

Facing blowback from labor unions and governments in coal country, Berlin backed off, replacing the levy with a subsidy of 1.6 billion euros to gradually mothball eight coal-fired plants and shut them down permanently by 2023.

面對來自工會和煤炭產區地方政府的阻力，柏林退縮了。它放棄徵收那項稅費，代之以16億歐元（約合120億人民幣）的補貼，幫助逐漸淘汰八座燃煤發電廠，並在2023年結束前將它們永久關閉。

Environmentalists hated it.

環境保護主義者非常不喜歡這種結果。

Instead of being fined for polluting by the proposed new climate levy, utilities will instead get paid for keeping their oldest and most inefficient lignite plants on standby, noted a report for Oxfam on Germany’s energy policies by the environmental nonprofit E3G.

這些造成污染的事業公司非但不會被處以罰金，繳納新提議的氣候稅費，反倒可以因爲保留自己那些極其老舊和低效的褐煤電站，並暫停其運轉而得到補貼，非營利環保組織E3G就德國能源政策爲樂施會(Oxfam)製作的一份報告指出。

It amounts to a golden handshake for utilities at the expense of taxpayers and consumers.

這相當於用納稅人和消費者的錢給這些事業單位一大筆退職金。

And that wasn’t all. The chancellery also rejected a push by Barbara Hendricks, the environment minister, to establish a road map to the total phaseout of coal, hoping to postpone timing decisions until after national elections next year.

不僅如此，總理辦公室還否決了環境部長芭芭拉•亨德里克斯(Barbara Hendricks)確立徹底廢除煤炭燃料的線路圖的努力，希望將決策時間推遲到明年的大選之後。

Berlin’s hesitance may seem like little more than a snag in Germany’s vaunted Energiewende.

柏林的猶豫看起來似乎不過是德國大肆宣揚的能源轉型(Energiewende)遇到的一個障礙。

At least the coal generators are scheduled to shut down eventually.

至少依計劃這些燃煤發電廠最終都會被關閉。

But the resistance in the greenest of green countries underscores a more substantial challenge to the international effort to drastically reduce fossil fuels in the world’s energy supply: workers and retirees, local economies and communities still depend on the fuels the rest of us hope to let go of to preserve the planet for our children and our children’s children.

但這個堪稱綠中最綠的國家所遭遇的阻力，突顯出在全球能源供應中大幅減少化石燃料的國際努力面臨一個更實質性的挑戰：工人和退休人員、仍然依賴這些燃料的地方經濟和社區，儘管我們其他人希望放棄它們，以便保護這個星球，讓我們的孩子及其後代擁有更好的環境。

I’m old enough to remember President Jimmy Carter going on TV on April 18, 1977, declaring a moral equivalent of war against dependence on foreign oil, and telling Americans that we need to shift to plentiful coal.

我年齡夠大，還能記得吉米•卡特1977年4月18日在電視上宣佈向美國對外國石油的依賴發起道義戰爭的情形，他告訴美國人我們需要轉向儲量豐富的煤炭。

It seems unfair to simply tell the communities that worked on this shift: We’re sorry, but it didn’t work out.

單單告訴這些社羣，對不起，這場戰爭出了大問題，似乎不太公平。

But making those who will suffer from this transformation whole is not just a matter of fairness.

但對那些會因這種轉變受損的人做出補償，不只是一個公平問題。

A successful transition to a low-carbon future requires their support.

成功地邁向低碳的未來需要他們的支持。

And yet they remain pretty much an afterthought in the public debate over climate change.

而在針對氣候變化的公開辯論中，他們基本上始終是事後才被想起的羣體。

Employment in U.S. coal mines has been falling for decades, pushed more by market forces than environmental policy.

幾十年來，美國煤礦的僱傭人數一直在下降，這更多是由市場力量推動，而非環境政策。

The steep downturn of late is mainly because of a glut in the global steel market and extra-cheap natural gas.

近來這一數字大幅降低，主要是因爲全球鋼鐵市場供過於求，加上天然氣價格格外低廉。

President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan has not yet kicked in, placed on ice by the Supreme Court.

美國總統貝拉克•奧巴馬還沒有開始實施他的清潔電力計劃(Clean Power Plan)，因爲最高法院做出裁決，要求暫停執行。

Still, Hillary Clinton singled out coal country for government assistance, offering $30 billion over 10 years.

此外，希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)單獨將煤炭區列出來，提議在10年裏爲它們提供300億美元的政府援助。

The stakes are even larger in China.

中國牽涉其中的利益甚至更大。

It is the world’s largest consumer of coal — burning as much as every other country combined.

它是世界上最大的燃煤國，煤炭消耗量相當於其他國家的總和。

After years adding coal-fired generators at breakneck speed, the government in Beijing finally acknowledged the public health costs and ordered limits on new construction.

在多年以非常危險的高速度增加燃煤發電廠之後，北京的政府終於承認這麼做的公共衛生代價太大，下令對新建項目進行限制。

Yet even as environmentalists welcome the decision as a watershed in the transition out of the world’s most polluting fuel, striking coal miners have taken to the streets, protesting unpaid wages and government plans to cut 1.3 million coal jobs out of a total of nearly 6 million to reduce overcapacity as the country’s growth slows.

然而，就在環保人士對此表示歡迎，將它看作擺脫世界上污染最嚴重的燃料的努力出現轉折之時，罷工的煤礦工人卻走上了街頭，抗議企業拖欠工資，抗議政府計劃削減130萬個煤炭業工作崗位。當下，中國煤炭業有將近600萬個工作崗位。隨着中國經濟增長放緩，政府需要削減過剩的生產力。

There are several reasons to be skeptical about the world’s transition out of coal.

我們有好幾個理由對世界擺脫煤炭資源的可能性持懷疑態度。

Sure, official data suggest that the world’s production peaked in 2013.

當然，官方數據顯示全球產煤量在2013年達到了高峯。

China’s coal consumption appears to have declined 3.3 percent last year.

中國去年的煤炭消耗量似乎減少了3.3%。

But experts note that despite the new limits, there are still lots of new coal-fired generators being built.

不過專家也指出，儘管政府實施了新的限制，但仍有不少新的燃煤發電站在建設之中。

To protect jobs and tax revenue from small coal mines, Chinese local governments have been known to fib when Beijing has demanded they stop producing coal.

據悉，爲了保住工作機會和來自小煤礦的稅收，中國地方政府會在北京要求停止產煤的時候撒謊。

They stop reporting production numbers but don’t shut them down.

他們不再上報生產數據，但卻不會關掉煤礦。

Finally, even the most renewable-friendly nations have not figured out how to draw more than a modest share of their power from wind and sun — which can’t be counted on to deliver energy continuously.

最終，就連最支持可再生能源的國家也搞不清楚，如何才能將本國風能與太陽能極低的總髮電量佔比有所提高。

At the same time, coal remains the easiest and often cheapest source of base power.

目前還不能指望這兩種能源可以實現持續穩定的供應。

So from Germany to India, strategies to increase the share of renewable energy in the power mix have relied on a coal base.

與此同時，煤炭依然是最容易獲得、往往也是最便宜的電力來源。所以不管是在德國還是印度，其增加可再生能源發電比例的策略都要以煤炭電力爲基礎。

The way many jurisdictions are going is to follow the German model, said Mark C. Thurber, associate director for research at Stanford University’s Program on Energy and Sustainable Development.

很多國家的發展方向就是採用德國的模式，斯坦福大學能源與可持續發展項目(Stanford University’s Program on Energy and Sustainable Development)研究部副主任馬克•C•瑟伯(Mark C. Thurber)說。

It seems totally nuts, but it follows from the fact that renewables have a lot of support, and other than that, people do what they know, which is coal.

這看似完全瘋了，但它出自這樣一個事實：很多人對可再生能源表示支持，但除此之外，人們還是會使用自己瞭解的東西，那就是煤。

India draws 62 percent of its power from coal and is already the second-largest consumer after China and ahead of the United States.

印度62%的電力來自煤，它已經是排在中國之後、美國之前的世界第二大燃煤國。

Still, coal consumption is growing about 7 percent a year to power the country’s economic catch-up.

但印度的燃煤量依然在以每年約7%的比率增長，這樣才能爲該國在經濟上的奮起直追提供動力。

There is not much research into backing out coal with something else, Thurber said.

目前沒有太多有關用別的能源取代煤炭的研究，瑟伯說。

They are just throwing renewables at a coal base.

他們只是在煤炭資源基礎上增加可再生能源。

While environmentalists welcomed India’s announcement last year that it would increase investment in solar energy, they were less pleased by its plans to triple coal production from 2013 to 2020.

儘管環保人士對印度去年宣佈的一項舉措表示歡迎，即它將增加在太陽能方面的投資，但對於印度提出的在2013年至2020年間將煤炭產量增加兩倍的計劃，他們就沒那麼滿意了。

This means the world’s climate change strategy cannot rely on the quick replacement of the dirtiest fuel around.

這意味着這個世界應對氣候變化的策略，不能依靠快速替換目前污染最嚴重的燃料實現。

Increasing investment in technologies like carbon capture and storage may prove indispensable to meet the limits on carbon dioxide emissions needed to prevent a catastrophic warming over coming decades.

對於達到在接下來的幾十年裏阻止災難性的氣候變暖狀況發生所需的碳排放限制，增加在碳捕集與存儲等技術上的投資，或許會被證明是不可或缺的。

Even after all this is dealt with and the obstacles are overcome, the human dimension will remain.

即便所有這些問題得到解決，障礙被跨越，依然會有人的問題。

It will require a lot of attention, and more than a few billion dollars.

它將需要很多關注，不只是投入幾十億美元那麼簡單。

Simply assuming that displaced coal miners will make a smooth transition into jobs in newfangled energy industries, which have a different geographical footprint and require a different skill set, is a cop-out.

僅僅想到讓被取代的煤礦工人順利實現轉型，在新能源行業裏找到工作，那簡直就是逃避問題，因爲能源分佈情況不同，也需要不一樣的技能。