俄烏之爭擴大範圍 中國拒絕選邊站隊

When Chinese premier Li Keqiang holds his annual press conference today, one of the main questions he is unlikely to answer to anyone’s satisfaction is: what does China really think about Russia’s recent actions in Ukraine and Crimea?

當中國總理李克強今天舉行年度新聞發佈會時，他不太可能讓任何人感到滿意的主要問題之一是：對於俄羅斯最近在烏克蘭及克里米亞採取的行動，中國真正的看法是什麼？

Beijing is in a very tough spot over the issue because events that have played out over the past couple of weeks roll all the authoritarian leadership’s worst nightmares into one big nasty dumpling.

北京方面在這個問題上陷於非常棘手的處境，因爲過去兩週發生的事件，似乎把這個威權領導層所有最可怕的惡夢揉成了一個討厭的大餃子。

Popular uprisings are anathema to Beijing but then so is the occupation of sovereign territory by another country, especially in the name of protecting ethnic minorities and their right to self-determination – think Turkic Muslims and Tibetans in China’s western regions.

人民起義是北京方面不願看到的，但是由另一個國家佔領主權領土同樣讓中方敏感，尤其是出於保護少數民族及其自決權的名義——想一想中國西部地區的突厥穆斯林和藏族吧。

China’s responses to the crisis in Ukraine have followed the Miss Universe beauty pageant philosophy of international relations: China would like to see world peace and hopes everyone can just get along.

迄今中國對烏克蘭危機的迴應，似乎與環球小姐選美大賽中的國際關係理念如出一轍：中國希望看到世界和平，希望各國和睦相處。

No matter how hard Moscow, Washington or the international press try to force it to come down on one side of the dispute, the most Beijing has been willing to say is that all sides should “remain calm and exercise restraint” and come to a “peaceful resolution”.

無論莫斯科、華盛頓或者國際媒體如何努力，試圖迫使中國在這場爭端中選邊站隊，北京方面願意作出的最大限度表態是，各方應當“保持冷靜剋制”，尋求“和平解決”。

Meanwhile, China’s foreign minister chose his first annual press conference on Saturday as the moment to declare that Sino-Russian ties are better than ever. So what is China’s real position on the crisis in Ukraine?

與此同時，中國外長選擇在上週六他的首次年度新聞發佈會上宣佈，中俄關系比以往任何時候都好。那麼，中國在烏克蘭危機中的真正立場是什麼？

Strange as it may seem for many in the west, who are used to their leaders expounding on far-flung parts of the globe they cannot always pronounce, the world’s second-largest economy and top superpower contender does not really have a stance on Ukraine, or many other issues that have hit international headlines.

西方人習慣於聽到他們的領導人就地球上遙遠地方的事務發表高見（有時候領導人連那些地方的地名都說不準）。很多西方人也許會感到奇怪的是，全球第二大經濟體、未來超級大國的頭號角逐者，在烏克蘭問題乃至登上國際新聞標題的其它許多問題上並沒有明確的立場。

As one senior strategic adviser to the government put it in a private conversation: “Russia is our friend but this is typically aggressive Russian behaviour; we’re going to lie low on this issue, wait and see how it plays out and at the end we’ll be friends with everybody.”

正如中國政府的一名資深戰略顧問在私人談話中所說的：“俄羅斯是我們的朋友，但這是俄羅斯典型的咄咄逼人的行爲；我們在這個問題上要保持低姿態，靜觀事態演變，最終我們將與各方交朋友。”

This may seem more like the policy countries such as Luxembourg or New Zealand might adopt towards the conflict but China is just not ready to start throwing its weight around in parts of the world that clearly lie within other people’s spheres of influence.

這似乎更像是盧森堡和新西蘭這樣的小國對這場衝突可能採取的政策，但中國就是不準備在明顯處於別國勢力範圍的地方發揮自己的影響力。

In contrast, in its own neighbourhood, China has explicitly moved away from its former passivity and openly describes its foreign policy as “active”.

與此形成反差的是，在本國所處的地區，中國已明確告別過去的被動狀態，轉而公開形容其外交政策是“積極”的。

That is obvious in everything it does these days, from the recent declaration of an “air defence identification zone” covering disputed islands in the East China Sea to its largest ever naval rescue operation under way in the search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

這一點如今在中國的一切行爲中顯而易見——從不久前在東海劃設覆蓋爭議島嶼的防空識別區，到展開有史以來規模最大的海上搜尋行動，尋找失蹤的馬來西亞航空公司(Malaysia Airlines) MH370航班。

Outside of east Asia, at least when its own interests are not directly involved, in many ways China’s position in international affairs is rather noble.

在東亞地區以外，至少在不直接涉及中國自身利益的情況下，中國在國際事務中的立場在許多方面相當崇高。

In a nutshell, China stands for non-interference, dialogue, negotiation, peaceful resolution of conflict, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and a voice for all nations no matter their size.

概括地說，中國主張不干涉、對話、談判、和平解決衝突、尊重主權和領土完整，並代表所有國家（無論大小）發聲。

Chinese diplomats argue, quite reasonably, that when foreign powers meddle in the internal conflicts of other countries they almost always make the situation worse. In the case of Ukraine, China has very little direct stake in the conflict or the outcome, certainly compared with Europe, Russia or even the US.

中國外交官相當合理地辯稱，當外國勢力插手別國內部衝突時，他們幾乎總是使局勢變得更糟。就烏克蘭而言，中國與這場衝突或其結局沒什麼直接利害關係，尤其是在與歐洲、俄羅斯甚至美國相比的情況下。

Apparently Beijing is waiting for delivery of a Ukrainian hovercraft, it sometimes orders jet engines from Kiev for its military, and it has invested in some agricultural projects in the country. That hardly constitutes core interests.

據信北京方面正在等待烏克蘭交付一艘氣墊船，中國有時候向烏克蘭訂購軍用噴氣發動機，中國還投資於烏克蘭的一些農業項目。這算不上核心利益。

“In more and more instances the world wants to hear what China thinks,” one senior official told the Financial Times last week.

“在越來越多的問題上，世界想要聽一聽中國的看法，”中國政府的一名高級官員上週對英國《金融時報》表示。

“But as our influence grows we are even more reluctant to take sides or make strong statements because we understand that the more important we are, the more likely our interference will complicate things and make them worse.”

“但隨着我們的影響力逐漸增長，我們更不願意偏袒任何一方或發表強烈聲明，因爲我們明白，我們越是重要，我們的插手就越有可能使事情複雜化，把局面搞得更糟。”