中國欲將軍事競賽引向太空

The debate over U.S. military presence in Asia usually centers on traditional areas like water or air. Yet Chinese President Xi Jinping has provided evidence that military competition may be shifting from ships and planes to space. He showcased China's military priorities when last week he encouraged his country's air force to better integrate its air and space capabilities. Although not as dramatic as President John F. Kennedy's 1961 call for a U.S. mission to the Moon, the Chinese leader's desire to expand the realm of military competition are clear. Washington should prepare for crippling attacks on satellites and other communications systems before it is too late.

圍繞美國在亞洲的軍事存在的爭論總是集中在海、空等傳統領域。但中國國家主席習近平最近的講話表明，軍事競賽可能會從艦船、飛機轉移到太空。上週，他鼓勵中國空軍更好地將航空和航天能力整合起來，從而點明瞭中國軍事的優先任務。雖然習近平的這番講話並不像美國前總統肯尼迪(John F. Kennedy)在1961年提出登月計劃那樣引人矚目，但這位中國領導人擴大軍事競賽領域的願望已表露無遺。華盛頓方面應該準備防範衛星及其他通訊系統受到的攻擊，否則將爲時已晚。

China's plan to militarize its space activities has been in development for years. Its space program is controlled by its military, unlike in the U.S., where military services and NASA have separate agencies and leadership. Repeated Pentagon reports in recent years on China's military activities have noted the country has built up the means of disabling foreign satellites. And technological advantages have been growing steadily.

ASSOCIATED PRESS多年來，中國一直在發展將太空行動軍事化的計劃。中國的太空項目由軍方控制，這與美國不同，美國的軍事部門和美國國家航空航天局(NASA)有各自的機構和決策層。近些年來，美國國防部多次在有關中國軍事活動的報告中稱，中國已經建立起能使外國衛星癱瘓的手段。此外，中國的技術優勢一直在穩步擴大。

China shocked the world in 2007 by successfully destroying one of its aging weather satellites, demonstrating an anti-satellite capability that few nations can match. That test created a cloud of debris that continues to bedevil satellites and the International Space Station. Beijing also tested what is widely believed to have been a new, mobile-launched anti-satellite missile last May.

中國在2007年成功摧毀了本國一個老化的氣象衛星，展示出沒有多少國家可以企及的反衛星能力。此舉震驚了世界。目前，這項實驗所產生的一個衛星殘骸雲團仍在困擾其他衛星以及國際空間站。另外，中國還在去年5月份進行了一次測試，外界普遍認爲所測試的是一款新型、機動發射反衛星導彈。

By comparison, the Pentagon has no formal anti-satellite system under development. And at a time when America's exploration program of the Moon has ended, China's has just begun. Its 'Jade Rabbit' moon rover, the first Earth vehicle to visit the lunar surface in almost 40 years, successfully landed last December. Although Jade Rabbit broke down halfway through its planned three-month mission-highlighting the complexities of sustained space programs-China's goal remains to execute a manned mission to the Moon and possibly even establish a lunar base.

相比之下，美國國防部還未開發正式的反衛星系統。在美國結束探月計劃之際，中國剛剛踏上探月之旅。中國的“玉兔號”月球車在去年12月份成功登陸月球，這是近40年來地球設備首次登月。雖然“玉兔號”在完成預定三個月的任務過程中出現了故障（凸顯出持續推進太空計劃的複雜性），但中國的目標仍是執行一次載人登月任務，甚至可能建立月球基地。

Which gets to Mr. Xi's high-profile exhortation last week that he will guide his country's growing technological expertise toward making space another dimension of the battlefield. How might Beijing integrate its air and space capabilities, and to what end? This is where both American homeland security and military planners need to be concerned.

習近平上週高調宣佈，將引導中國日益增強的技術實力朝着把太空當作另一戰場維度的方向努力。中國可能會對航空與航天能力進行怎樣的整合？又要達到怎樣的目的？這是美國的安全與軍事規劃部門都需要關心的問題。

There are currently only 30 operational GPS satellites operated by the U.S. Any Chinese ability to target those satellites could potentially disrupt, if not cripple, GPS operations on which everything from weather reporting to civil aviation to smartphone apps rely. That would impose huge costs on the American economy and potentially shut down entire industries. It is the 21st century version of saturation bombing, designed to target civilians and break their will to resist.

目前美國只運營着30顆全球定位系統(GPS)衛星。如果中國能夠鎖定這些衛星，就可能干擾、甚至破壞從天氣預報、民航到智能手機應用所依賴的GPS服務。這將給美國經濟帶來鉅額成本，並且有可能讓整個行業陷入停滯。這是21世紀的新型地毯式轟炸，針對平民，旨在粉碎他們抵抗下去的意志。

Similarly, Mr. Xi is moving China into a position where it could deny U.S. military forces their one unquestioned global advantage: a networked battle system. The U.S. Air Force operates around 20 advanced satellite communications systems.

同樣，習近平正在推動中國到達這樣一個地位：動搖美國軍隊一個本無爭議的全球性優勢——網絡化作戰體系。美國空軍運營着大約20個高級衛星通信系統。

Targeting those and some GPS satellites could make U.S. military operations difficult, if not impossible, to undertake. It could eliminate the effectiveness of precision-guided munitions. The U.S. Congress has become so concerned about this vulnerability that it requested that the Pentagon run studies on the ability of the U.S. military to operate in communications-denied environments.

瞄準上述系統和一些GPS衛星可能讓美國軍方的運營難以進行、甚至無法進行。可能會使精確制導武器失去效力。美國國會對這一薄弱環節一直十分擔心，以至於要求國防部研究美國軍隊在無通信信號環境下運作的能力。

Offensive space weapons would undoubtedly be employed in conjunction with China's advanced cyber warfare capabilities. By blinding satellites while knocking down computer networks through distributed denials of service, Beijing could effectively prevent U.S. forces from operating in Asia and beyond. This is what the Chinese call 'war under informationized conditions,' a twist on the 'joint operations' that the U.S. military touts. The potential of such an attack is not based on military branches, but on capabilities.

攻擊性的航空武器無疑將得到應用，以配合中國先進的網絡戰能力。通過分散式阻斷服務攻擊來破壞衛星觀測能力並打擊計算機網絡，中國政府可以有效阻止美軍在亞洲及其他地區運營。這就是中國所稱的“信息化條件下的戰爭”，將破解美國軍隊宣稱的“聯合作戰”。這種攻擊潛力的基礎不是軍事分支，而是軍事能力。

Consider the threat of increased space presence to some of Asia's flashpoints. Blinding some of America's spy satellites could deprive policy makers of timely intelligence on Chinese naval and air moves to threaten foreign-held territory, such as the disputed Senkaku Islands. Introducing just enough uncertainty to delay American or joint allied decision-making could give Chinese forces the margin of success necessary to present Washington with a fait accompli. It would undoubtedly be even easier to isolate and interrupt the military activities of America's smaller allies, leaving Washington with a heavier burden.

破壞美國的監控衛星可能使決策者不能及時獲得中國海軍和空軍威脅外國領地相關行動的情報，如存在爭議的尖閣諸島(Senkaku Islands, 中國稱釣魚島)。通過加大不確定性來推遲美國或盟國的決策可以提高中國軍隊成功製造既成事實的可能性。無疑也會使得孤立或阻礙美國較小盟國軍事行動更加容易，從而加大美國的負擔。

The trend is clear: President Obama may want to shrink the military and surrender America's lead in space, but China is moving in the opposite direction. Eventually, Beijing will have a lead. At that point, American policy makers will be forced on the defensive while grasping to connect the dots of seemingly disparate events in space and cyberspace. America prides itself on being the world's technological powerhouse, but that is a diminishing advantage when others have a clearer view of why they are aiming at the stars.

趨勢很清楚，美國總統奧巴馬可能想要收縮軍事力量、放棄美國在航空領域的領導地位，但中國卻朝着相反方向發展。最終中國將處於領先地位。到時候，美國決策者將被迫進行防禦，同時努力將航空和網絡空間中看似不相干的事件聯繫起來。美國以作爲全球科技強國而自豪，但隨着其他國家對發展航空業有了更清晰的認識，美國的這種優勢正在減弱。

Mr. Auslin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for . He is on Twitter @michaelauslin.

Auslin是美國企業學會的常駐學者，也是《華爾街日報》網的專欄作家。