瑞士匯率大波動 究竟發生了什麼

These are strange and unnerving times in global financial markets, and if Thursday’s jaw-dropping move in the Swiss currency didn’t prove it, nothing will.

全球金融市場會經歷一些讓人不知所措的異常時刻，瑞士貨幣匯率週四令人瞠目結舌的波動就是最好的證明。

It is not every day that the currency of an advanced, economically important country rises by double-digit percentages against the currencies of other such countries within mere hours. But that is what happened to the Swiss franc on Thursday. It is up 18 percent against the euro as of Thursday morning, and at one point was up 39 percent. Currency strategists were searching for any analogue in modern history for a similarly abrupt move in major Western currency and coming up empty.

一個擁有重要經濟地位的發達國家的貨幣，兌換同類國家貨幣的匯率，在區區幾個小時之內以兩位數的百分比上漲，這可不是什麼每天都能見到的事。然而在週四，這種情況就發生在了瑞士法郎身上。截至週四上午，瑞士法郎兌歐元匯率上揚了18%，而且曾一度暴漲39%。貨幣策略師們正在當代歷史中尋找主要西方貨幣陡然大幅升值的相似狀況，但一無所獲。

The Swiss move offers interesting lessons about the oddly precarious state of the global economy, but first it’s worth working through what exactly the Swiss National Bank has done.

瑞士市場的波動提供了關於全球經濟脆弱狀況的有趣證明，但首先，我們應該弄清楚瑞士國家銀行(Swiss National Bank)究竟做了些什麼。

Back during the eurozone debt crisis in 2011, fear was high that banks in countries that use the euro would go belly up. If you were a company or rich person in a country like Greece or Italy or even France or Germany, fearful that the euro could go kablooey and your local banks with it, you were sorely tempted to catch a flight to Zurich or Geneva and deposit your money in a Swiss bank. Amid a general atmosphere of global panic, the same could be said of plenty of savers outside Europe: Russians, Middle Easterners, Chinese, you name it.

2011年歐債危機期間，對歐元區各國央行可能破產的擔憂四起。在希臘、意大利，乃至法國或德國這樣的國家，如果你是一家企業的負責人或者一位富人，擔心歐元可能把當地的銀行一同拖下水，你巴不得能跳上去蘇黎世或日內瓦的航班，把錢存進一家瑞士銀行。在全球恐慌的大環境下，可以說歐洲之外的儲戶也是如此：俄羅斯人、中東人、中國人，不一而足。

All those people looking to park money in Switzerland, a country of only 8 million people, created incredible upward pressure on the Swiss franc. From the start of 2010 to mid-2011, the value of the franc rose 44 percent against the euro.

這些人都想要把錢存到瑞士這個僅有800萬人口的國家，從而爲瑞士法郎構成了難以想象的升值壓力。從2010年初到2011年中，瑞士法郎對歐元上漲了44%。

Think about that for a minute. It would be as if dollars in the state of Virginia (with a population similar to Switzerland) suddenly were worth 44 percent more than the dollars used in the rest of the country. Virginians would be wealthier, but it would be a catastrophe for businesses in the state. Suddenly their costs would be 44 percent higher, effectively, than that of competitors in other states. Tourism would dry up; why go to a Virginia beach when it is 44 percent more expensive than a North Carolina beach?

讓我們思考一下。這就好比弗吉尼亞州（人口與瑞士相當）的美元價值突然比美國其他地方高出了44%。弗吉尼亞民衆是更富有了，但這對於該州的企業來說卻是個災難。與其他州的競爭者相比，它們的成本突然躍升了44%。旅遊業會枯竭；弗吉尼亞海灘的消費要比北卡羅來納州的海灘高出44%，誰還會去那兒呢？

That’s exactly the situation Swiss businesses faced. Swiss watchmakers, pharmaceutical firms and ski resorts were suffering mightily because a scary global economy made people want to park their money into Swiss banks.

這正是瑞士企業面臨的處境。那裏的鐘表製造商、製藥企業和滑雪度假區遭受了重創，就因爲可怕的全球經濟讓人們想要把錢存進瑞士的銀行。

The Swiss National Bank came to the rescue. After its earlier efforts to cut interest rates hadn’t done enough to dampen interest in the franc, it pulled out the big guns, and set a peg, announcing it wouldn’t allow the franc to appreciate such that one franc buys fewer than 1.2 euros. They backed it by going onto foreign exchange markets at will and buying euros as necessary to defend the peg.

瑞士央行在這時挺身而出。早先下調利率的舉措未能抑制對瑞士法郎的興趣之後，它拿出了殺手鐗，設定了一個匯率上限，宣佈不會允許本國貨幣任意升值，而是要將匯率保持在1瑞郎士法郎兌換1.2歐元以下。他們到外匯市場大量買入所需要的歐元，從而守住這個上限。

It worked for a long time. But now, the European Central Bank looks to be on the verge of an extensive new effort to try to pump money into the European economy to get it out of its doldrums, which is creating downward pressure on the euro. The pressure is particularly pronounced against the dollar, the benchmark of global commerce, which is rising in part because of a strong United States economy and plans by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

在很長一段時間內，這種做法起了作用。但是現在，歐洲央行(European Central Bank)似乎即將採取大規模行動，設法爲歐洲經濟注入資金，使之擺脫低迷。歐洲經濟的低迷正在促使歐元下行。在兌換美元——國際貿易的基準貨幣——的匯率方面，這種壓力尤其明顯。美元正在升值，這在一定程度上是因爲美國經濟走強，以及美聯儲(Federal Reserve)提高利率的計劃。

Meanwhile, Russia is a basket case, increasing the desire of Russian oligarchs to avoid exposure to a falling ruble.

與此同時，俄羅斯深陷危機，從而增加了該國寡頭規避因盧布不斷貶值而帶來的風險的意願。

All that means that the 1.2 euro peg is becoming more and more expensive to defend. And on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank, led by Thomas Jordan, basically waved the white flag.

這一切都意味着，堅守1.2的匯率上限需要付出越來越高的代價。到了本週四，由托馬斯·約爾丹(Thomas Jordan)所領導的瑞士央行基本舉了白旗。

In a news release, the bank said that it believed the franc was less overvalued now than it had been when the policy started, so no more peg. “Recently, divergences between the monetary policies of the major currency areas have increased significantly – a trend that is likely to become even more pronounced,” the announcement said.

央行在一則新聞稿中表示，它認爲目前瑞士法郎估值過高的程度，比開始實施這項政策時要低，所以無需再堅守匯率上限。“最近，各大貨幣區在貨幣政策上的差異已顯著增加——這一趨勢很可能會更加明顯，”文中稱。

In other words, this situation is only going to get worse, which means we would be throwing Swiss francs down a money pit if we tried to continue defending the 1.2 currency peg.

換而言之，情況只會越來越糟，這意味着，如果我們試圖繼續堅守1.2的匯率上限，就相當於把瑞士法郎往無底洞裏扔。

The central bank simultaneously cut interest rates, hoping to offset some of the damage in foreign exchange markets. It didn’t work. The Swiss franc-to-euro exchange rate moved back to where it was before the peg was introduced. Shares of major Swiss companies like Nestle plummeted. Exporters in Switzerland (and people thinking of traveling there, such as the global elite soon heading to Davos for the World Economic Forum) are in for serious sticker shock.

瑞士央行在同一時間降息，希望能衝抵對外匯市場的一些損害。但是沒用。瑞士法郎兌歐元的匯率回到了設定這一上限之前的水平。雀巢(Nestle)等瑞士大公司的股價暴跌。瑞士的出口商（以及考慮前往該國的人們，比如很快將奔赴達沃斯出席世界經濟論壇[World Economic Forum]的全球精英）會面臨嚴重的“價籤休克”。

One can sympathize with the Swiss National Bank as it defended its peg in the face of mounting potential losses. But the bigger lesson here is this: The six years and counting of aggressive monetary activism out of major central banks like the Fed and E.C.B. may have rescued the global economy over and over. But it has also created a range of spillovers far beyond United States and European borders that people all around the world will be grappling with for a long time to come.

在面對日益嚴重的潛在損失時，瑞士央行堅守了它的匯率上限，這一點值得同情。不過，這裏有個更大的教訓：美聯儲和歐洲央行等各大央行爲期六年而且仍在繼續的積極貨幣政策，或許是多次拯救了全球經濟，但是，它所產生的一系列後果，遠遠超出了美國和歐洲的範疇，而世界各地的人們將需要花很長時間來消化。